mpkio2
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Posts posted by mpkio2
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For the whole winter season, I have kept my opinions and thoughts to myself (Concerning the weather and the search for cold), always holding on to hope that some cold weather would, eventually, arrive.
However, seeing how we are at the end of Feb, I too must throw in towel and pull the curtain over what I believe to be one of the borinest winters we've had to suffer for quite a few years.
We are currently in a N/NE flow and the GFS is toying with the idea of high Greenland blocking in March...NO THANK YOU!
If cold weather doesn;t appear in the Winter months, I really couldn;t carless. Disregarding March 2013, cold weather in Spring is just dreadful - a East flow in March would only equal 8/7c and overcast cloudy days.
I'm sorry I'm going on a tirade here, but I really had to finally let it all out.
Oh well, here's to a great Summer and a better Winter next season.
~mpkio2~
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Well it seems the GFS 06z and 12z are really getting into the Christmas spirit!
Hope its a trend that continues on in the coming days! What a lovely Christmas present!
Of course, it could be completely wrong, but some nic eye cand, nontheless.
Merry Christmas everyone!
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Man, missed the snow in Central London! UGH!
Oh well. Guess I'll enjoy the 0c temp tomorrow morning.
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So happy that it snowed in London...thought I missed the whole event due to work.
At least it DID snow and I'm happy lots of you got to see it.
Oh well, I'm just gonna enjoy this cold snap for as long as it lasts and hopefully I'll get to see some of the white stuff in Winter.
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This was such a good idea, Paul!
Make it so much easier for me to monitor the topics I'm interested in for the Winter season!
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Exactly, infact one of the things I'll be looking out for is a wet, unsettled November (but not an entrenched +NAO/+AO as you point out)
Funny enough, thats what I was essentially getting at. 2009 Nov comes to mind. I don't epeecially think that just becasue we get westerlies out of the way now we will be guaranteed a cold Winter. I do believe it giives us some opportunities for a cold spell. I don't know - logic and emotion ar at war within me.
Please ignore me while I go and sort myself out.
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In most of the 'classic' winter years that I've looked at, there was evidence that the PV never truly got established during the autumn months. For all of the wet weather and the Atlantic train of November 2009, looking back you can see that the PV remained disturbed throughout the month with even some weak heights at times to our N.
7th...
25th....
7th Dec...
The vortex was never allowed to settle.
As you have demonstarted from Nov 2009 NWP above, the vortex does look rather disturbed and doesn't have that strong ugly bulb-like shape to it; the UK did experience that unsettled "westerlie" patch before mid december 2009, where HLB established to our north and got us stuck in the famous 09/10 cold spell. I do believe that any HLB before Winter is a big plus cause we are alittle re-ensured that its always there to keep things interesting up there - although, not always guaranteed.
It's probably a psychological thing, about wanting westerlies before Winter and all. I can't explain it really and I know science and history depicts I should feel otherwise, but can't shake off the feeling. Ugh.
Whether or not we get westerlies now doesn't effect winter at all. I never understand this idea that if we get an unsettled autumn, it will somehow "use up the zonality reserves"...
The same goes for easterlies. The high pressure spell next week, won't use up our "easterly reserves". The weather doesn't work like that.
Like I mentioned above in response to CreweCold, many people probably feel this due to a psycological stand point. The whole "If it gets out of the way now, it won't bother me latter on down the road,". This in itself is of course a fallacy, especially when it comes to something as diversely chnageable and uunnpredicatble like British weather, I know, and as stated, history and science proves otherwise.
Guess its just a human thing.
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You know you should be getting excited when all of the more knowledgable posters (like Recretos, chino, GP, Tamara, lorenzo, Interitus,) start coming out of thier Summer hibernation really start discussing some informative and well-informed information regarding the Strat and the implications that mmay bode well for our upcoming Winter!
Just wated to say thank you to all for the awesome amout of work all you guys put into this forum and all of the invaluable and well-informed informatiion you all post here and share with the community. It means a lot to all of us and we have all learnt so much!
Thank you!
Lets hope the strat comes well under pressure from Wave 2 annd hopefully an SSW!
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Nice ECM tonight shame we aren't into late autumn/winter yet, I'm sure the majority on here would be pretty excited over charts like this... No sign of the PV and Atlantic train setting up just yet... Still plenty of time though!!
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0
If only we were in the middle of Winter!! This thread would be going nuts, no doubt!
Things seeme to be falling into place, slowly and gradually. And llike Daniel Smith pointed out, we have a building cold pool to our North-East over Scandi/Russia!
Although, I must admit, I am a little anxious that we haven't seen any westerlies and the models are modelling (wat?) alot of high pressure around our vicinity. I like to see westerlies in Autumn and an AO+ signature. Why? Well, usually when we get a blocking high in Autumn and no sign of westerlies, they all seem to kick in when Winter comes around and we hardly see any HLB!
So, I would rather we get all westerlies out of the way *NOW* so that it gives HLB more of a chance when Wiinter comes. It will just be our luck that we get HLB now in Autumn and then won't reapear at all during Winter.
I know the weather doesn't act like this, but I'll jjust feel more relaxed and rest assured.
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It really is getting going now!!
It begins!!!
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Hi, as i see it this winter has a strong chance of being mild to very mild. The siginificantly positive enso coupled with the positive and strong QBO signal usually combine to override other factors such as Atlantic SST's. I hope I'm wrong but wouldn't be surprised to see the N'ly tracking jet / bartlett scenario prevail for longer periods this winter.
I think we could be close to having a mild winter, but this all depends how strong the El-Nino becomes by December. If it gets any stronger, something akin to the El Nino of 1997/1998, we could be facing a Winter like that winter (97/98). However, it is possibble for the El Nino to reach its peak in November and from there, decline. I'm hoping, if everything times nicely, this will acour, and with a Midoki El Nino, we could be looking at something really interesting.
Although an eQBO aids in higher heiights to our North and declines our Westerlies, it is not the be all or be none factor for the type of weather thhe UK can experience in Winter. Look back and you will find that even wQBO's can produce some cold Winter's too for the Uk
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Solar sunpots have been on the rise recently and today are up to 145 from an average around 60 for the last 2 months. We are running very close to solar cycle 12 and that had one last hoorah before entering solar minimum. Could this peak be just at the wrong time as we enter our winter??!! Hope not!
I'm assumming that the last solar push in Solar Cycle 12 occured just before the cold winter of 1885/1886 (In 1885)...which, incidentally, also had an El-nino.
All very interesting, so we shall see...
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After months of hibernation, finally coming out!
What a wonderful idea, Paul!!
I voted for a 70% chance of a colder than average winter. My thinking narrows down to what many on have already posted as their reasons; with a high chance of a Midoki El-nino, colder than average North Atlantic seas, Tri-pole slowly forming in Atlantic, good melt season in artic, and long rangers (For now,) going for above averge heights in the GIN corridor in DJF.
This is how I seee things occuring:
November: stormy with some cooler air at times (Maybe cold shot at end of month la Nov 2010)
December: continuing theme of stormy
January: Becoming cooler and graduly colder, with snow near end of month
Febuary: Coldest month of Winter
, but with mild interludesThis is all just guessing, but thats the whole fun of this forum, after all!
P.S. Welcome back to the forums, everyone! This is gonna be one wild ride, thats for sure!!
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GFS 10hPa for 17th March is forecasting a final warming event and if it's to occur, it will finish the PV for this year.
Awaiting Berlin ECMWF to confirm in the next 48 hours.
Although this is good news (IMO), anyone hoping for any cold will see this news as "Too little, too late". Now, if this was to have happenend in the middle of Jan, me and a few other Cold-lovers might be a little more excited. Good news, nontheless, though
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Afternoon peeps - not sure this is the right place but has anyone got "That ECM" chart still from a year or so ago - you know the amazing ECM run that everyone was talking about that went TU as I remember ?
Ah, now that was an evening on the 5th December 2012 which I will never forget! It was marvelous!
You can take a peep at "That ECM" run here:
Damn, we were so close!
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Yup... now we need the ppn to stay moving the ame way it has all night for us in the Capital to benefit, very, very (did I say very??) light snow for the past hour, just a sugar dusting so far, but the radar is looking great right now for quite a few of us!!
(Famous last words eh??
)Where are you, if you don't mind me asking?
(EDIT: Snowflakes beginning to get slightly larger (not a sign of a warm sector I hope) and still very light but steady snow falling and settling very slowly)
Don't mind at all. Camden Town, Central London (15mins walk from Regents Park).
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Update from Central London.
Snow falling somewhat persistent now, light (But heavy in bursts). Covering starting to surface, too.
What a wondeful night this has turned out.
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Yup this shows that once you get a very cold pool of air in place things usually take care of themselves. (even if not shown to on the models)
Lol yeah. Its one of the reasons while this cold spell was being predicted by models, and for SouthEast being in the bullseyes for a cold snowy period around this time, I was getting excited, despite the models showing some marginal -850's. Uusally, it all works out in the end.
Light snow still falling, and itf the predicted radar on www.meteoradar.co.uk is anything to go by, London might recieve a good covering by morning!
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Met office going to have egg on there face tomorrow if disruption in London caused by snow with no real warning. Quite incredible how poorly forecast this event was both by met and by models.
It just goes to show than even the pros and models can get it all horribly wrong. As we all know, the weather won;t act a way just because the professionals and some computer models say "it will". Its all a prediction after all. The weather will do what it wants' when it wants. Yay for unpreictability!!
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Just stared snowing in Central Lonndon! I reapet, snowing in Central London!
Unlike two nights ago, where it snowed in London (And I missed it cause I was sleeping. Ugh), it wasn;t cold enough for it to settle. With it being 0C outside, hoping it will settle tonight and maybe at least leave a little dusting.
So yeah, BBC forecast was a little off, but doesn;t bother me!
So, whats falling now, is this the remains to the "blob" that fell over Central South England or, if BBC forecast is right, willLLondon reciive more tonight?
Hope everyone gets sone snow!
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Didn't have much snow here in Central London today, but did have some sleet/hail which was better than nothing to see falling from the sky.
Happy for all those who recievved a good covering of snow today (At least some people got thee white stuff). Hope you all had fun with it.
Hoping this little "Polar Low" will deliever the goods for us in the SouthEast - God knows we deserve it, after last years sorry exscuse of a Winter!
I think some will wake up with a little surprise in their back gardens!
I'm waking up at 6am for work so praying I will see the snow has settled, or btter yet, still falling!
Heres to a good proper cold spell!
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Just started hailing/light snow (Moderately) in Central London!!! Yay!!
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Currently sleeting lightly in North-West/Central London.
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Good to see you back, Chino.
Let it begin!
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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2015/2016
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
As someone has already answered this question previously in this forum, I will reiterate., I think the lack of comments on the SSW has to do with the fact that many members wanted a cold/snowy winter and one way to achieve this in the UK was through the route of an SSW. Seeing how winter is now over, many have lost interest altogether (Me included). The SSW is taking affect now, but many assume that the after-effects of it will not be cold or snowy, therefore, no comments on it and lack of excitemnet; thats it in a nutshell.