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mpkio2

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    Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by mpkio2

    Hello one and all once again!!

    WARNING: LONG-WINDED POST!

    Well, I've finally come out of my Summer hibernation + lurking on the forum, and perhaps start to contribute by putting in my thought on my upcoming favourite season; winter.:cold:

    Anywho, it's been a little up and down in here over the past few weeks, what with the roller-coaster already sterted, rolling up and down along the track at full speed.

    If you don't know, I always look at the models knowing where we all stand with regards to FL, and what with the models not showing the type of patern we all wanted to see, a big turnaround occured, almost, literally appearing out of the blue with today's 12z suite:

    12z 20/11 GEM: t144:
    gemnh-0-144_lil5.png

    12z 20/11 GFS: t144:
    gfsnh-0-144_tgf5.png

    12z 20/11 UKMO: t144:
    UN144-21_oom7.GIF

    12z 20/11 ECM: t144:
    ECH1-144_sip6.GIF

    The reason I've been lurking through most of the season (I've been loving all the chat and excitment in here BTW! ) is that, as we all know, when a cold pattern is signalled by the GFS and none of the other models, I seem to really.....question what it's prediciting . Perhaps expereince have told me too many a time through my my time on the forums, that "If you get burnt once, you'll get burnt again" and all that, not to mention it's lower stats in verification . So I love all the "BOOM!" and the ramping posts and seeing everyone's excitement (I get excited too! ), but I know that deep down, if theres no cross model agreement, I tend to take it as all fun.

    But on this occasion, on how buzzing everyone's been on the forum, I thought "It's time I awoken and got on the roller coaster too!"

    ECM and UKMO look very similar too each other and when both those modles start to agree with each other (Especially with a cold patern for the UK,), I really sit up in my chair and pay attention. And great thing is that both on them look the best too!

    So here I go, the models and the FL cut-off point of t144.....

    Whats great is that all models have a genral concensus of a pateern, but on varyiation of the same theme/pattern: i.e. main lobe of the tPV over Russia/Siberia, height rises over Greenland, with low height under and around North-west Europe, jet stream genrally to the south and high heights around Central Europe, which is so unlike of what typical November pattern should be like! Where has that ragging Jetrstream gone!!!

    This is what it was like a few years ago......

    archivesnh-2016-12-23-0-0.png

    archivesnh-2017-12-23-0-0.png

    Certaintly a hudge indication of an AO+ regime!

    And this is where we currently are.....

    ECH1-0_vyc6.GIF

    What a difference!

    So what now? It's done deal?

    Nope!

    Now we all hope that the theme continues, the model's cross-agree on a Winter Wonderland, it gets down to 0+, and we all live happily ever after. (In my dreams!)

    No, but seriously, it's just a case of watching (And preaying! )  that everything thats affecting the tPV and sPV (e.g. wQBO to eQBO, solar min and the forecasted SSW for the end Nov/beg Dec occurs,) all affects it perfecting so we can reasp a brilliant pattern ripe for cold for the UK.

    I'm optimistic for the forth coming season and all the potential that it may hold, but I'm cautious....so I'm cautiously optimistic?

    Yeah. What ever happens, I'm gonna get on this roller coaster - enjoy the highs and the joy, expeerince the drop and lows and everything else that comes with it, and just expereince all with everyone on here, old and new! :drinks::gathering:

    What ever this Winter has in store for us, let's all face it together!!

    *Cue chessy music*

    Until next time!

    ~mpkio2~

     

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    The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by mpkio2

    Hello All Once Again!!!! :oldgrin:

    Been awhile since I posted here, huh? Hope you all had a wonderful festive period and New Years! :santa-emoji::cold-emoji:

    Chilly out there today, as our UK High sits right over us making it colder, and widespread frosts tonight countrywide....

    image.thumb.png.6a5c0f43f79a46088b469fd263772c4f.png

     

    image.thumb.png.e5e5e702655b8aabf63b6259ff229710.png

    :cold:

    So that's it gang! The "Hunt" for cold is over! It's been found and its right at our doorstep! :yahoo::oldp:

    OK, all things serious, a lot has been going on over the past few days, with the models constantly at war with each other, bickering and disagreeing. But there's a lot going on at the moment; what with our current SSW causing havoc in our atmosphere and models NWP.....

    Going from this currently (04/01/19):

    gfsnh-10-6_wpx1.png

    To this (Ongoing first warming or second warming? :cc_confused:) (06/01/19):

    gfsnh-10-78_aje2.png

    As many have said, shows a three daughter vortices split - One over Europe, America and N.Pacific, which should allud to, down the line, to a -AO, cold spilling into the mid lats - but nat guaranteed!!!

     But even that's not nailed on yet (Though looking likely with current model runs from the big three - ECM, GFS(P), and GLOSEA5,) - which is what is causing all this uncertainty with the modelling and why so many runs are flipping like fish on land! The SSW (Which was forecast well out over 2 weeks ago,) is here, with winds downwelling into the atmosphere causing them to veer E instead of the usual W. So, we all know it's occurring, but the speed at which it is occurring is what everyone is unknown about, whether we are likely to see a QTR or not and whether it will give the UK a cold spell.

    But it can all be wrong for all we know! It doesn't guarantee cold but can increase the chances, after all. :oldsorry::oldsad:

    With the MJO signal with each respective model being forecast at different amplitudes, speed in which they are progressing through each phase(7-8-1) ,a -ve EAMT GWO Phase 5 and high AAM to add into the mixture, its a heck of a lot to account for. 

    image.png.c286ff8be39214df68a5d59401e6593b.pngimage.png.16881a6439e6166d6a858da4bf7a7b2b.png

     

    (The above charts are from Matt Hugo (Twitter @matthugo81),) :oldgood:

    With that said, I do like to see if I can find agreement between the models, and thus far on the 0s suite, there is some agreement (I know - shock horror! :oldp:

    0z UKMO (03/01) t144:
    UN144-21_xbr5.GIF

    0z GFS (03/01) t144:
    gfsnh-0-144_ulh6.png

    0z GFS(P) (03/01) t144:
    gfsnh-0-144_ypv5.png

    0z ECM (03/01) t144:
    ECH1-144_jew1.GIF

    0z ICON (03/01) t144:
    iconnh-0-144_djy5.png

    :oldwink:

    So, yes in the broad-pattern, there is some agreement on the overall pattern - a mid-lat high seems to be likely for a weeks time. What isn't agreed on is the position and strength of said high, whether is can retrogress towards Scandy or Greenie; whether we'll have a cool northerly/easterly or a cold northerly/easterly. All down to other atmospheric players of course and, because of that, these charts, for all we know, could be completely and utterly wrong.

    But there is a CONSENSUS!!! Mid-lat high by 11th Jan, and with a favourable/amplified MJO Phase 7-8-1, GWO Phase 5, high AAM and a -ve EAMT, we might be in business, even if the full effects of the SSW don't down well all too well for us. Here to hoping of course!

    It's why so many posters aren't bothering to post; because the runs have been so volatile and flip-flopping because of the SSW confusing the models. It can take up to 2 weeks to see the true effects of an SSW ( a la Jan 2013 SSW and responsive March 2013 cold spell), so, as many have already said....

    Please don't take the models too seriously!! :oldgood:

    Of course, post, comment, the whole-shebang! But just try not to get too hung up on individual runs. We all want it to be cold and snowy (That's why we're all here!!!), so lets all just enjoy the ride, yeah?

    Here's hoping for more upgrades and a cold, snowy winter! :clap:

    Until next time, gang! :drinks:

    ~mpkio2~

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    Meto Uk Further Outlook

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    43 minutes ago, karyo said:

    Well, the MJO is fairly weak (close to the circle of death) so unlikely to make an impact unless it amplifies. The El Nino is also weak. I think the  increasingly wQBO may be doing the damage.

    I have to agree with this. Seeing how the GWO is in an unfavourable phase, AMM is currently low (But on the rise soon), its not surprising that we will see a unsettled period. A weak EL Nino should not interfere, though a wQBO, possibly, can.

    As many have saud, we'll just have to wait and see.

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by mpkio2

    We were expecting this to happen. ECM isn't as good as GFS, but then again, that run is possibly the best outcome we could get!

    ECM, as many have said, isn't a disaster at all and there is much to like - PV in shatters, high over UK and GIN corridor trying to retrogress upwards.

    I'm sure if you played the run on a few extra frames, a high would set up in GIN and we would be back in an easterly flow!

    Just for a little perspective, this time a few years ago we were looking down at the bottom of the barrel....

    archivesnh-2015-11-24-0-0.png

    If a run like the ECM 12z came along, we all would have jumped on it, wishing it to fruition!

    ECH1-240_ush3.GIF

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    Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    :oldgrin:This place has been buzzing over the past few days, hasn't it?!

    Ain't like the past few days the models haven't been spilling out cold runs with potential or anything! :cc_confused:

    12z UKMO t144 13/11:
    UW144-21_qix9.GIF

    12z GEM t120 13/11:
    gem-0-120_kwt3.png

    12z GFS t144 13/11:
    gfs-0-144_sjd6.png

    12z GFS t240 13/11:
    gfs-0-240_gjt6.png

    12z GFS t324 13/11:
    gfsnh-0-324_tiu8.png

    The PV is completely annihilated!!! :shok::oldgrin::yahoo::cold:

    OK, all ramping and joking aside, it does appear that support for a cold end to November (As many posters on here have forecasted for a while - @CreweCold and @BLAST FROM THE PAST) by the models IS in full swing! With current atmospheric and stratospheric shenanigans occurring.....

    npst30.png

    , a de-coupled trop and strat (Despite a record-breaking zonal wind speed in October) and strong wave transfer in the Indian Ocean taking place (MJO transition 3-4-5-6) and talk of a Wave 2 event occurring (Potentially) further down the line at the end of the month....

    464463113_ecmwfzm_ha2_f240(2).gif.f93a43

    Its no wonder the models are spewing out runs like this!!!

    gfsnh-0-210_qzy1.png

    gfsnh-0-264_odk1.png

    ECH1-240_zfg0.GIF

    BUT!!!

    As the previous winters have proven, nothing is set in stone, nothing is guaranteed and anything that can go wrong usually does (Especially for cold weather for the UK!!! :wallbash::oldp:).

    Point being, latest GFS 12z run is a beaut and shows a perfect evolution of a retrograde Scandi high to full on Greenland high, which shatters the PV and sends a chunk straight down from the north straight to our little island's shores.:oldgrin: Its gotten me HYPED! :yahoo: And everyone else here in the forums! We all want it to happen, but we must place our feet on the ground! It's a great run, but hasn't support from the UKMO and GEM at the moment.:oldsorry:

    What's great though is that we have the potential to set-up a cold pattern down the line (I mean Arctic cold!). And even if the 12z GFS doesn't come off, at least we'll have more bites of the cherry and it will feel seasonal for the time of year. :oldsmile::cold:

    Watch the models, see what gets support, where the TRENDS our going!

    And the TREND this far is cold!!! :cold::cold::cold:

    ~mpkio2~

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    Model Output Discussion - Autumn 2018

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Its brilliant to see so many posters come out of their Summer Hiberanation, gearing up during this Autumn and to the coming winter!

    This place is buzzing tonight!!! :D

    But who can't get excited when your a coldie and the ECM teases you with this....

    ECH1-240_fns1.GIF:cold:

    All fun and games of course just for now, cause we all know how fate likes to tease us and when it looks all too good to be true, its snatched away before our very eyes! :sorry:

    But there is much to be optimistic about this year! Let the roller-coaster that is model watching, commence! :D:yahoo:

    • Like 13

    Cause Of The UK Heatwave?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by mpkio2

    Hello all,

    As we all know, the UK is currently in a heatwave (July 27th). It is remarkable so far for not only its strength of the heat but the duration of the heatwave too (Since around June 19th to July 27th (Current),). The media is reporting interviews from UK meteorologists, asking why we are currently in a heatwave, with many answering that it is due to the jet stream marandering North to the UK, thus allowing hot air from a situated high-pressure system over Central Europe to divert up North towards the UK.

    That's all fine and dandy, but I ask "Why is the Jetstream maraundering North and why is it currently so weak?"

    So, what do you guys think?

    Why are we experiencing such a strong heatwave? As in, what weather drivers are causing it to happen in the first place?

    Let's get this discussion going!

    SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 03/03/2018 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    Hey guys!  :D

    The weather must know its the 5th Anniversary of March 2013! :laugh:

    Started snowing moderately in Central London around 8am in the morning, though nothing settled and left everything wet - was too warm. :sorry:

    Just walked up the high street and it got even colder with the windchill very biting cold and small snow flakes falling. :cold::cold:

    Looks good after 4pm overnight for our region, so keep the faith guys! :):good:

    Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    1 minute ago, lewis028 said:

    I keep hearing the news saying there has only ever been one red warning before this event and that was wales 2013, but I’m pretty sure London/Essex was issued a red warning in 2010? Anyone else remember?..can tell there is no snow falling here in Leigh ?

    You are indeed correct. I remember that day - 18th December 2010 - as a polar low brought heavy snowfall across London and the South East. I was watching BBC News all the while to get weather updates and around 11.30a.m, the Amber warning turned into a Red warning for Snow.

    If I had some proof I would post it but I can't, for the life of me, find a thing online!

    • Like 4

    East Anglia and North London weather discussion (25/02/2018) onward

    in Regional

    Posted

    Latest radar shows PPN intensifying out in the English Channel up from France, progressing up to us more NE than initially predicted. :)

    Radar1.thumb.png.bb977e36e86f21b9b9bbd503f01c9683.png

    Could be looking at some strong falls for SW parts of our region (London and Home Counties).

    Also, latest 12z HIRLAM shows this for 5pm this evening....

    hirlam-1-4-0_nds5.png

    When you take into consideration what the radar is currently showing, it does make one think that it could be on to something...:wink:

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