mpkio2
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Posts posted by mpkio2
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Hello again.
Almost all models going for some sort of HLB to our North which will occur around Wednesday. GFS and ECM continue to show some impressive Northern Blocking which bringon a fiull easterly at t96:
It looks great and would be great.....in Winter! I mean, I'm more angry and upset than relieved to see these charts (Charts I've been wanting to see for months!). I just can;t help but think "If only these showed up in January..."
What wasted potential this is!!!!
I know I'm moaning, but if these types of charts showed themselves during any moth in Winter 13/14, and actualy came to frutition, I would be a lot more excited. However, it may be my pessimissim speaking, due to the hollw Winter13/14, but I just wish it wouldnlt happen at all. All that these charts will achieve is wet weather and highs of 8c at day (In London that is).
Like many, I'd rather just have warm weather now. Winter had its chance and it blew it! It can;t just turn around and say "Hello!" in Sprintime, no matter how common it may be. Yes we had a cold March last year, but doesn;t nessarcerily mean we will have the same weather this year. I usually love cold/snowy weather, but now when it shows its ugly face when we've all been deprived, suffering and led up the garden path multiple times due to the models.
Anyway, thats all I have to say on the matter.
~mpkio2~
P.S. Mods please move post if needed.
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I wonder if what we are seeing in the model output at the moment is tied in with a
late SSW?
Zonal winds are forecast to be reversed right through the stratosphere by days 7-8..
ecmwf10f168.gifecmwfzm_u_f192.gifA very interesting GFS 06z run this morning with height rises over Scandinavia which
retrogress to our north-west by 240 hrs which then allows a stonking Northerly.
gfsnh-0-120.pnggfsnh-0-240.pngSeems to tick quite a few of the SSW boxes.
I really don't know how to feel about this. Just as we exit Winter and enter Spring, the weather wants to turn colder at the end of March/begin of April, with almost all models showing an easterly os some sorts and some northerlies. In a whole month too late for it to be really cold, like winter.
For IMBY's perspective, even if the models arn't taking us "down the garden path" again, I don;t think it will affect me much down in London. Move onto next Winter I say. I'm just too depressed for this!
~mpkio2~
P.S. Move this post mods to the right forum if it sounds like I'm moaning.
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i totally understand that cold and snowy weather can be dangerous, but lets not go overboard on the dramatics. Many parts of the world cope with months of cold and snow every year.... and they have lots of elderly people living in these areas too. What do they do all winter..... hibernate? of course not, they just get on with it.
it may not have been bitterly cold but we have still had the heating on as usual as you can hardly say the weather has been balmy (barmy yes) all winter. Its been neither too warm or too cold. horrid!
I see what your saying but I never said that elderly people all around the world loose their lifes due to cold weather....I only meant it has "occured" in our country, because, as you know, we Brits usual grind to hault when it snows by 2cm! Your right; people in other countries, when it snows, just get on with it, though I think its because those countries get cold/snowy/icy weather on a regular basis and have the equipment to cope with it, and are used to it.
My point still stands that both weather is dangerous and life-threatening, giving the right circumstances. Like I said, I love snow/cold/icy weather, but I'm not gonna deny how destructive it can be: if you think about, all weather have the "potential" to be dangerous, whether its freezing cold weather, snizzling hot weather and stormy weather. Its like someone who loves tornados; their not ignorant enough to not know how dangerous they can be.
I know what you mean by having the heating on; its been neither freezing cold though neither balmy mild, but somewhere in the milddle, on the most part, during most of the winter; "chilly" I would describe it. Agreed; its been horrid and I wish it would all just end now!
mpkio2
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I understand what you mean and I am a big cold fan, maybe because I am in the southwest and we rarely get a proper snow event unless on the moors I am very realistic about are chances each winter....But I think snow and ice are far more dangerous than rain and wind storms, yes property in 'flood prone' area's get flooded but more people get hurt or killed in snow and ice, lives can't be replaced like furniture can.
Yeah. As much as I like the cold/snow, sometimes you have to be realistic about the weather.
I think that both weather types (Cold/snow/ice) and (rain/winds/floods) are as dangerous as each other. Elderly people are especially at risk when it comes to cold weather, but, of course, can be just as dangerous to people of any age; I remember the papers reporting some deaths in December 2010. But the same can be said about the floods! It was reported that people lost their lives due to the floods that occured in Summer 2012.
(You can watch the documentary on 4oD "The Year Britain Flooded" and "The Year Britain Frooze" about how both events caused destruction and, in some cases, took the lives of people. though you might have already watched it.
)My point is, both weather types are just as dangerous and life-threatening as each other; known are worse than the other, though it does deppend on the individul and his/hers weather preferrence in which they like. Which is why I say pray to those who are being affected by the floods right now, cause, as you say, some people have lost loved ones, and thats something than can never be replaced.
mpkio2
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Still hate this winter with a strong passion and can not wait to see the back end of it!!!
As many have pointed out, the past 5 winters, we have been spoiled rotten with at least some cold/snowy spells and, in some instances, a long duration of time, and it is those winters which set expectation of what we believe we "should" be receiving this winter. But, as we all know, the weather gods have given us quite the shocker this Winter 13/14, a reality check, that not all winters are cold and snowy, and are sometimes dominated by stormy Atlantic driven weather. Of course, this has many most cold/snow fans 9Including myself1), very disappointed.
I believe, however, that we shouldn't have our expectations so high for winter, because in some cases, like this one, can leave us feeling rather down when the weather doesn't deliver the goods we all want; Again, blame the last 5 winters for this, which she be treated as a "expectations-setter", but more as "exceptional circumstances and results".
I agree with many who point out that this winter has in no way been "boring"; there's always something going on, whether it be storms, heavy rain, coolish conditions, and the exceptional snow amount in the Scottish mountains. However, just because its "history-making," doesn't mean we have to like it! I love December 2010 (For obvious reasons!), but that doesn't necessarily mean that everyone's gonna love that "infamous" month of cold/snowy weather. The same applies now to this winter and this weather!!!
To end it all, I just hope we get out of this annoying, frustrating, appalling, and God-awful winter as quickly as possible!!! Also, to anyone suffering due to floods that have wrecked our country, my thoughts go with you and I hope you can re-make anything you may have lost.
Winter 2013-2014, please....
JUST GO AWAY!!!!!!!!
mpkio2
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Preapre yourself! Mini-rant-moan incoming!
This winter has been pathetic in terms of cold, snow and ice!!!!
It's probably the worst winter I have ever had the displeasure to endure through (Including the mild 90 winters and early 2000's - even they cropped up a cold spell here and there!!)
We've had nothing but rain, rain, and more rain, adding onto the misery that many have had to live through, with copuios amounts of floodwater ruining people's houses!
If you couldn't tell, I hate this winter with a passion. I had felt really optimistic in November 2013, before winter began, but now my hope and faith in anything cold has diminshed away really quickly. The models have lead us up the garden path, again, again and again! You really can;t take anything serious past t96 hours!
Can we get a cold spell in Feb and maybe March? Possibly, as March 2013 has proved, cold weather is not exclusive to winter months.
As many have mentioned on here, this is probably Mother Nature's way of saying "Well, the UK has had 7 years of colder than average winters - its about time they endured a milder one for a change." And as much as we may want cold weather, the weather just won't listen to us! I mean how hard is is to place some strong High Heights to our north in the GIN corridor, deflect the jetstream south, and pull in LP systems bringing in E/NE winds and snow? According to the weather this year, really difficult! Curse you colder-than-average strat!! Whats the betting though that a Greenland Block sets up in May? Just our luck!
I'm hoping that Winter 14/15 will be akin to what the US is experiencing now. There are signs that next year will have a eQBO and maybe an El-nino, but time will tell, eh?
Anyway, I give up! I've had enough! No more model watching for me!...
...but I might still have a little hope and faith left that something cold and wintry will pop up in Feb/March.
~mpkio2~
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Note the end of the 12z gfs op shows the vortex repositioning towards the pole having survived the Asian warming. This is what ed expected.
As far as the ECM forecasts are concerned, the wave 2 stuff is consistent and the wave 1 has been showing for a few days. Looking back at sat/sun, the day 9/10 forecasts tend to be a bit overdone.
at least there's something to look at in the mornings!
Actually, bluearmy, I see the exact opposite.
Forgive me if I'm wrong but the chart below of the t384 12z op run shows a weak PV with the artic high sitting more or less in centre (Notice the yellows over Alaska). Also the PV is strectched in the t384 chart, with two warmings on either side. I'm not saying it will happen; I'm just saying what I'm seeing, unless I'm seeing it all wrong?
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Tis the season to be jolly, my fellow weather loving friends!!
Its about time it got a little be more optimistic in this place!
It goes without saying, but for those who are hunting for all that glorious snow/cold/siberian-like weather, it has been a nightmare this year, with the models constantly changing their minds, squabling with each other and leading us up the garden path but a few times! What seasonal model-watching month its been - I'm almost exhausted from the stress and anxiety!
However, that doesn't mean the models haven't been churning out some juicy eye-candy fl charts from time to time. Over the past few days, there have been small tentative signs from both the GFS (Big signs from this one - with a strat warming occuring over New Year!), GEM and ECM (ECM is alot better than whats its been showing in the past two weeks!)
As seen by todays GFS 12z and the recent GFS 18z, it has been keen to ramp up the strat warming over New Year:
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122118/gfsnh-10-336.png?18 (Reaching -12c!
)This warming has been present in the GFS in the past few days so far and is a strong signal of the PV getting some pressure put onto it, resulting in a PV split:
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122118/gfsnh-0-348.png?18 (PV not at its finiest in these FL charts.
)In this particular GFS FL, we see a small area of HP sitting over Scandi and bringing in a cold south-easterly air flow:
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122118/gfsnh-0-384.png?18
Whats been the most encouraging is the forecast start warming via GFS. Usually, according to some of the pros on here, these come off and occur (Which is a great thing to hear!). Without the strat warming, I might have been very skepitical with alot of the FL charts murming about split PV, but because its showing it, we can have some faith.
Whats been the most positive signal from all of this is that almost all top dog models want to move the PV over to other side of the globe!
GFS: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122118/gfsnh-0-108.png?18
ECM: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013122112/ECH1-96.GIF?21-0
UKMO: http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013122112/UN120-21.GIF?21-18
GEM: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2013122112/gemnh-0-138.png?12
I believe the point og interest will occur around the 30th of December 2013 (As it stands!); the models are trying to get a firm grip on what the pattern is shifting to and what type of weather the UK will have; this can be seen in the models FL's. The forecast FL start warming is obviously having some sort of an effect on the trop, thus why we are seeing such different deep FL's (Although on the cool/cold side).
GEFS have also been liking the idae of a split PV, some cold northerlys and easterlys. I love P15 of GFS 18z myself; just look at that beauty of a classic Greenland High:
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-15-1-372.png?18
(Love it!
. Probably won't happen, but hey, a guy can dream, can't he?)Whether we will have a cold start to January or not, is not up to us, but the weather itself, and we all know how much the weather likes to do its own thing!
. If we don;t get a cold start to Januaury, its not the end of the world. We still have many more chances and much more of Winter to go - maybe March aswell!Whatever you have, snow, rain, gales or sun, I want to wish you all a HAPPY MERRY CHRISTMAS!!!
.If I don't post, I'll see you all in the New Year!!
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Barbecue summer, better late than never.
Don't you mean a Barbecue "Winter"? lol
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I think its time I put in my food for thought regarding the prospects for this Winter.
OK, about the upcoming Northerly - many are disappointed about what the models are showing and how GFS/ECM keep shutting the LP system sprawling down from S.Greenland either too East or too West on varianting runs. Although to me it does look as though the LP will be too far East to affect anywhere south of Manchester (I live in London), temps will still be below average for a day or two and, to me, that's better than Zonal temps! I do thinks Scotland will get some Heavy wintry showers and some strong bitter winds, with some -10c 850hpa upper air hitting Scotland and North England (-5c 850hpa for the rest of us!).
The recent GFS runs have also shown the LP system moving more of West to East movement across the PV to the North of us:
A day later, the LP system bringing down the "Arctic air" is sitting to NE of the UK over Scandi:
From what the models were showing a few days ago, the LP was projected to make a NW to SE movement down the country heading into Europe, but even that has changed. Point being here is the models are constantly changing due to the models trying to get a hold of the always developing upperstream pattern that is occurring in the atmosphere over the NH (Thanks to via Altuein(sp?) High). I don;t think the models can get to grips with the overall pattern and we will some changes as the weekend draws nearer (Finer details are subject to change!).
I think the ECM 0z has lessened the cold northerly, but it has been toying with this idea in it's 12z's over the past few days so I'm not all that surprised to be honest. Still, shows a couple of cold days with a high risk of snow in the North.
Now we get to the interesting bit! As most have mentioned, the GFS has been hinting in its FL's that some sort of HP may be setting up either over the UK or Europe which then leads to the Russian HIgh linking with ours over Scandi, creating a High-block. Even in the far reaches of 06z FL we have something like this:
Even the 240h on today's ECM 0z shows a Scandi high (Admittedly creates it much more faster and, iMO, seems too progressive):
GFS 06z 240h is nothing like ECM.
Do I think it will turn out exactly like that? No, I don't think so. But a trend is occurring in both GFS and ECM for height rises around Scandi in FL. I think its a good trend to take forward and hoping it will show its face more and more and pushed forward into the reliable in due time. Again, the models will flip-flop alll, about and will drop and bring back ideas all the time, so just relax and see how things pan out in this very interesting model watching period! I'm feeling optomisitc about what may be in store for us! Oh and remember:
The models don't drive the weather.
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You don't need a SSW to achieve a Greenland block. As long as the strat vortex is split, displaced or weak then it's not a problem. 2009 saw a weak strat vortex through November due to various small warnings during October and into November. I recall the strat didn't cool to average until into December.
Oh no no, I was referring that the SSW didn't occur to Jan 2010 - yet we still had a GH inn mid-December 2009. Although, it seemes I was wrong on when the SSW occured 9Or that there was one at all! lol.
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Catcol, I mentioned this in the strat thread a week or so back. Matt remembered it also. It wasn't last year so I can only assume was two winters ago, possibly three.We had a rampant upper strat vortex but the zonal winds didn't propagate down to the lower strat and we saw amplified trop patterns.
Wasn't that the mid-December 2009 cold spell which promoted a Greenland High? If memory serves me right, we didn't get a SSW until early Jan 2010...
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You like many are somewhat dissapointed about the "Failed" servre(sp?) cold spell many models were predicting in their output (Gotta give it to the GFS for getting some of the mid-term pattern right even when all models were against it - When I say "right", I mean it is the most "favoured" pattern predicted by all the Top dog models (i.e. UKMO and ECM). There was always a little voice telling me to keep my head grounded from getting excited, telling myself that it may never happen (I just remember "That ECM" from December 2012 -
). So all in all, I'm not as dissapointed as I might have been if I really did believe the model output - (If anything I was dubious and considered anything over t96 to be FL.However, its still the end of November - AUTTUM!!- and to have a cold/chilly/frosty/settled spell will be most welcomed in my books - anything but zonal dross! Anything other than this is good:
So the hunt fopr the next northerly/cold spell begins as the 18z GFS ensemble just crocked out some cracking FL chrats! Agin, nothing to take seriously but hopefully, a new trend to follw and to watch evolve:
P4: (Bounds of potential here!):
P5 (Not exactly "cold" but the PV looks disrupted at least):
P6 (Col polar northerly incoming!):
P8 (There's even potential here; another disrupted PV!):
P10 (Speaks for itself really):
P17 (And my favourite: Split vortext with a cross polar flow with a UK-wide snowfall!
):Again, I most emphasis that all these are hand selected and are in the far reaches of FL (Half members were going mildish-cool, some cold and some really cold). Like before, these may not even come off and probably won;t with our luck, but its always good to see that the models are outputting us with something optimistic than all members going mild and zonal type weather. Just thought I would brighten up the mood in this place a bit.
Cheer up people; its not even Winter yet!!!
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BEST CFS to date for November 2013! Its the run which reflects my thoughts N>E>NE
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=174&mode=0&carte=0&run=10
God, now that is a Wintry run of EPIC Poportions!!! (I know I'm ramping, Mods,).
I mean just look at this beauty of a High:
1070 High? Impressive. And just look at that sorry looking PV!
And then incoming snow showers at the end of the month
:PV comes to take a visit to the UK.
Its all just for fun and will probably won't turn out like that at all (I wcan dream though,), but is always Awesome to see on the crazy model wich is the CFS.
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Look at last nights 18z CFS 1 month-
it looks exactly like the ECM at 240, which then goes through the cycle I mentioned in my post above in days 8-16
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=174&mode=0&carte=1&run=10
Hit ANIM
Also of note the GFS isn't modelling a return to atlantic conditions- even though its firing random bullets all over the place like a gatling gun its seeing the vortex becoming weaker- which in terms of the stratosphere being at -80c is not what is to be expected ( & also highlights the difficulty of using the strat for seasonal forecasting)
I cant keep highlighting enough that the GFS is pony tony in forecasting blocks to the north, but still like sheep to the slaughter all the people follow it.
I give up.
I agree. I think the GFS is too progressive with the Atlantic. If I remember straight, last Winter in mid-January, the GFS wanted to sweep the block away from the north with the Atlantic train. It was wrong and the block held to the end of January. However, I do believe the GFS is good at picking up trends
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There are some very wintry GEFS 12z perturbations tonight, some where max temps are struggling to get much above freezing at times from next week onwards, a few bordering on ice days and snow would feature at all levels on many of these charts in various timeframes. The general idea from these charts is a reloading cold pattern from the northwest with just brief lulls in between, there are lots of other charts I could have posted which show near misses and others which take longer to evolve into the finished article but not many duffers in there, they are mostly going cold with some polar maritime and arctic blasts, I think it's GAME ON FOLKS.
What delicious looking Eye candy!!
I've been saying for weeks that the raging PV since start October has been a good thing. Now at least we have decent cold to unleash.
Agreed. Its better to have cold to tamp into than to have none at all. Hopefully the pacific ridge can push some warm air into the artic, causing havac up there, leading the PV to become disturbed and, again hopefully, set up a nice block in the right position for the UK. Fingers crossed, eh?
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A cold end to ECM, northern blocking remains on hold which suggests the NAO could remain positive
Actually, wouldn't that suggest a negative NAO since somesort of blocking is sitting in the Atlantic?
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Was just about to post this just for laughs and giggles. Beast from the East, anyone? All for fun as usual, but still good to see the CFS is still calling the same hym for the past two weeks now!
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I'm sorry but I couldn't resist to show some stonking runs the CFS has been pumping out recetly for the end of November potential cold snap. And yeah, I know its the CFS and all not reliable, but its been showing this sort of stuff over the past few days! Take a glandar and see:
A Scandi high on todays 0z:
An Iceland high on the 06z:
A strong Greenland high with incoming snow showers on Yesterdays 12z (Best run of the lot IMO, Trust me it's an AMAZING RUN!):
And another Scandi high on Yesterday's 18z:
All fun and games and may not happen at all, but still great to see nontheless.
EDIT: Plus, that CFS 12z from 8 November shows a very sad looking PV, with a big high sitting right near the middle of it, causing the PV to almost split!
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another one of those runs we have been getting recently that you wish it went on another day or two
LP to north of us moves East, HP to our southWest retrogresses up to join HP to the East of USA and then BOOM! We're in business my friend.
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Wow! This thread is really starting to bubble with excitement at the possible outcomes after mid-November, including myself.
Already mentions of hail falling in manchester, Met warnings of ice onn roads, MetO 16-30 forecast uncertain but mentions "below temps", and the models coming out with some stonking possible outcomes around the 20th of November. I mean that a look at the Run de controll from the GFS Esemble 12z run:
PV is disrubted and that pacific ridge is really our friend.
The models gain more support everyday for a cold shot at the end of November. How long it will last, and whether it will come to frutition, is another question all together. But still very encouraging to see. Bring on Winter 2013/14!!
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Most notable thing about that is the cold in Eastern USA. Bitter right down to North Carolina.
Its funny you mention that Gaz; it would coinside with what Gavin Partridge and Simn Knealing believe, that the USA would be in for a cold winter.
Plus as most mention, on the ECM 12z 240h and GFS 18z 240h, the pacific ridge is almost alike and attacking the PV.
At this point, its all about clues and signs. One I notice is the height ridge to the South West of Greenland on the ECM 12z 240h. It won't take much for it to retrogress north to Greenland and then we might get a result of what the GFS 12z 312h offers:
Still early days, but still all to play for.
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I wouldn't get too excited with the GFS 12z - it's 2 weeks away... hardly a chance of it verifying.
If I remember straight, it was two weeks before the models picked up the change in November 2010 to much colder weather in December 2010. So you never know...it MIGHT verify. But still, its all up for grabs.
Gotta love the FL in GFS 12z!
Higho!
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Hello everyone!!
Well we've been really lucky this year in regards to cold weather, huh?
Snow has been falling since 4am here in Central London and is set to continue until night hours! Snow is falling fast, heavy and in big snowflake sizes! It hasn;t settled at all,but hopefully it will as it gets darker.
Enjoy the snow eveyone!
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. If we don;t get a cold start to Januaury, its not the end of the world. We still have many more chances and much more of Winter to go - maybe March aswell!
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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2013/2014
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Some pretty good news after such a terrible/snowless winter!
Lets hope we have a Winter familiar to what our American cousins experienced last winter, ehh? Hey, I can dream, can't I?