March Blizzard

Foggy.

It's uncanny how similar the runs look to that BBC 6-10 outlook from a few nights ago. Most seemed to dismiss it at the time when I highlighted it, and perhaps for good reason; some kind of westerly breakdown was looking likely then. I found it odd at the time, I couldn't work out how they were seemingly certain enough to put it in the forecast. It seems they may have been on to something after all, but we aren't there yet.

Light snow here for the last 30 minutes or so...

Interesting to see March mentioned so often there. I'd imagine it's a month than can be just as severe as the "proper" winter months in your location, especially in comparison to much of the rest of England.

The BBC 6-10 day outlook last night seemed to suggest so, too. Rightly or wrongly?

It's only just recently been updated by the look of it. Encouraging?

I'd say it's possible, like you mentioned it's "just" 3.9C off the current English record. I'm of the opinion that "all bets are off" in regards to weather extremes in the UK these days, and it will only get worse in the future. You only have to look at the weather over the last 10 years, and how we have gone from one extreme to another, to see that another exceptionally severe cold spell is almost an inevitability. If I had to give a one word answer to your question, it would be "yes".

It's quite nice to be sat here, with an Atlantic storm going on outside, to be talking/reading about upcoming snow and cold. I guess us Brits curse our luck at times in regards to winter weather, but perhaps we should be thankful we can, and do, experience the whole spectrum of what it can offer, and how the rarity of cold spells makes them that bit much more special. Who knows, perhaps there are Estonians on an equivalent weather forum cursing the fact they never get any decent storms off the Atlantic, and are contiually searching for the elusive "Wonder from the West".

How long do you reckon it would take the mods to find the body if we killed someone in this thread, with all the excitement in the mod thread?!

Yeah, if some of the model runs from tonight verify then my mid/high 4C final CET figure estimate yesterday may be a tad conservative. Every chance we could end up approaching 2C territory. With the CET at 6.7C on the 12th, that would be one hell of a switcharoo!

Fixed

I think I might buy them winter tyres after all then...

If it was any other month than January I'd be worried about my 4.1C entry coming close, but it's a month in which you can get the coldest of spells at any time and they can make the CET tank. Still more than half a month for an appreciable drop to occur. In my opinion a mid to high 4's finish looking likely.

Guess what happened here today?...Go on, you'll never guess!...give up? It rained.

Didn't December 2010 have the lowest average CET minima in the series for that month?To answer my own question - yes. Dec 2010 CET minima averaged -3.8C, comfortably beating the old record of -2.7C set in 1890 and matched in 1981.

Quite odd how people are writing the whole of January off (never mind the whole winter) on just the 4th. It's almost as if the models are always accurate and that they actually create the weather, rather than forecast what they think the weather will do. It might not look encouraging at the moment but massive changes can and do happen, sometimes on very short notice. Out of interest, would a deep freeze and snow fest during the last week of the month, after a mild first 3 weeks or so, be considered a write off? Seen as though we have little idea of what the weather will be like from the 24th onwards, how can the month be written off so early?

I love late winter cold. I'd really like to see what March is truly capable of, it's a month that can produce severe cold yet really struggles to sustain it for more than a few weeks. I'm encouraged by 1947, a March with temperatures below -20C and which had a CET of -0.2C until the 15th. Also, we don't have to go far back to 2013 to see that even late March can produce ice days and subzero means. However, there always seems to be a mild week/10 days to "spoil" the fun. 1947 warmed up dramatically after mid month, 2013 had a mild first 9 days and 2006 was very cold until the last week or so. I'd love to see a cold, start-to-finish March, a 1-10 1947 and 11-31 2013 would be my dream scenario for the month. Hopefully 2015 pulls it out the bag, but I ain't holding my breath.

Looks like today could be a bit colder than forecast a few days ago, with minima widely below freezing and where the fog lingers maxima not getting much above 0C (if at all) today could give the CET a bit of a hit, with it only being a few days old.

There was thick fog here when I went to bed but clear and frosty when I woke up. Can't really complain as it's beautiful out there, but I was kind of hoping for a nice foggy day today, I've not had one for a while.

Very foggy here now.

It's probably not as wet in terms of the amount of rain, but it's been b***dy persistent!

Don't know about anyone else but to me this winter, so far, has seemed wetter here than it did at the same point last winter. I think I've had just a couple of completely dry days since at least late November.

Once again, thanks to RJS and J10 for continually doing this on all our behalf. Much appreciated.

And it ended late, too. The March CET was subzero until mid month!

Hot water, potentially. Lukewarm water, no. The wipers left on takes care of the refreezing part. Been doing it for years with no issues.I must point out that my windscreen is coated with a water repellant, so less forms on it to frost over. I also put the windscreen heater on a few minutes before doing so. I would be wary about doing it in severely cold weather, although in Jan 2010 when it was about -15C locally one morning I still didn't have any issues. I guess the real issues happen if there is an imperfection in the glass such as a stonechip or crack. Anyway, slightly off topic, even for this thread!