Allseasons-Si

The mean is slightly further east at 240 than the 12z which is a good sign plus slightly more height's over the top.

Do you have any charts to back that up

We are starting to see the split again.

I think it's not that bad mate,maybe the models are underplaying the signal of more heights,that EPS tweet i posted earlier may have some merit control and mean at 192.

If anyone says the gfs 18z is rubbish,....then they need to go to .....

Nice,i would settle with that with snow showers blowing in off a relatively warm north sea,could be some huge convection going off there of course this run is totally different from the earlier 12z but an upgrade all the same.

I am looking east Ed

Yes,base of the heights is further E/SE off Iberia should prevent WB-NAO.

The gfs at 144 hrs pushes the cold air in from the north further south and it is also a more northerly sourced airflow.

The ICON has a band of snow 27th-28th pushing down the country from the NW and pivoting through the midlands south.

they did change there wording earlier though anyway back to MOD... the latest from cpc 6-10/8-14 day 500mb outlook from cpc still showing a meridian flow N-S with +ve heights into S Greenland with some sort of link up with Urals/Russian block with marked trough migrating south of the UK in the extended with huge PV lobe still over E Asia/W Pacific latest NAO/NO still trending neg values too a tweet from M.Hugo... certainly an interesting period coming up in the next 7-10 days Edit:forgot to add that not one gefs member has high pressure over the UK at day ten

ECM/Gefs mean at 240+ pressure and ens day ten EPS and clusters and extended ^all looking pretty good to me sorry for short text as i am trying to eat my tea at the same time lol,it's now a microwave jobby

Late to the party... ECM and gfs at 240...beautiful the ECM looks like it would reload from the N/NW too,outstanding output and it's nice to here that the Meto are slightly backing away from the UK high now too.

Surprised no one posted the EPS clusters,only one cluster though day ten and EXT... gefs ens still flat lining around the -5 and the gfs was an outlier towards the end,well to some degree and look at this for a pressure drop

There is always one... anyway,the gefs mean out to day ten is still rock solid,infact,it's even better than the 00z check this out...

The gfs get's it's easterly wheels back on but too far out to be concerned about 300+charts

The 06z run brings the Greenland height's in three days earlier than the 00z,...same scenario. 06 246 v's 00z 318. great output this morning and gaining momentum now.

Weather for the Week Ahead - BBC Weather WWW.BBC.CO.UK Snow features in the forecast, but will it arrive in time for Christmas Day? Matt Taylor has the details.

Do you know what,i am glad that i found this forum back in 2012 because as of how this year has gone and up to now it has been pretty crap and i wouldn't think of how it would of been like without chatting about the weather of which i didn't have a clue about back then,great hobby this and i have learnt so so much on here so i give you all a big thank you lets move on he! he! the 18z gefs mean is steady at day ten,that W Rusky block is getting stronger though.

A rundown of the gfs in motion...

The only negative i can see is the NAO/AO

Yep,i got ya,beautiful run isn't it.

Yeah,... for Iceland

I am doing too much reading in hare that i am missing the model rolling out lol... slow down ERM!!! WOW.