Allseasons-Si

Is it me or is that Urals block getting stronger on every run 18z v's 12z if so,this will force the UK trough further south with heights over the top and then bingo.

Is this the one Ed?

A lot of positives from that chart,what a belter except with that low parked over the UK

I call it the BOOM model cos it's gone

The latest from the NAO/AO still look promising all the way out just as expected really with the lack of zonal weather which is showing on the NWP's and anomalies and some big +ve heights intervening with the trop pattern in the northern hemisphere just taking a look at the gefs mean and it certainly shows that it is maintaining a cold outlook to day 16 ^^^is that a beast looking at us from mainland Europe on that pressure chart about the uppers...... just kidding lol lets get to next week as it is miles away on judging what the weather will be on the ground 18z coming up,...strap yourselves in and no throwing teddies out

My bad,just edited it and thanks for reminding me

Talk about that Russian High,...it's a "WHOPPER" can we benefit from underneath it? Whooosh!!!,Ext ECM clusters says there is every possibility,the two clusters go for a blocked(red box)pattern, another positive get that UK trough south as quick as possible and there could be some interesting times.

I also remember that no model picked up this amplification in the Atlantic and then boom it just suddenly appeared one evening on the gfs,it just shows you how unpredictable the weather can be sometimes.

Hi Heath i will try and explain... 1,we need the trough to be cut off and to drop a lot further S/SE as much as possible 2,this will then open up the heights over the top 3,once 1 and 2 do that then the advection would take place from east to west of course this is just based on that chart and it is day ten,the modelling will come up with different types of scenarios up until then.

ECM At 240... if it doesn't snow from now into Jan,..then i will join @Scott Ingham

216... As i have just stated ^,upstream looks good

There is more amplification upstream off NE states so i wouldn't worry at all.

All three in unison at 144... ECM,UKMO,and gfs.

Control day ten...

The GEM ends on an interesting note,look at the Urals block,that would advect colder air SW.

Yep,... of the M4 certainly looks like it would be a slider,yesterday's run(i think it was the 18z run) showed a similar scenario. yes it was.

And what about the 18z Shaky! or do you go to bed early

Polar low "ALERT"...

Have i bet him to it

That is a good set of gefs ens@-5.

Mean at 300.... the upgrades keep on coming,i mean,..take a look at that,notice the finger of colder uppers to the NE^

All roads lead to Rome...UK IMO.. ...on the control run great output today/tonight, and great discussions, love it.

The control run is identical to the gfs with the renewed amplification in to Newfoundland,...W.T.F

Certainly better than the 12z where it had a lobe over the Atlantic this is better positioned to our east. BTW,the 18z gefs mean is a lot further south with the UK trough.

The 18z gfs is a great run to sleep on... but no,...i am not going to bed yet,i have to see what the gefs 18z are up to first... mean at 186,steady as she goes...