Allseasons-Si

Ext EPS are out... that's a lot better lol @chionomaniac

ECM mean at day ten along side the gefs mean look almost identical,just a tad more ridging on the gefs.

It does with 1 inch @Scott Ingham,thanks for your input mate, much appreciated it will be interesting to see the eps clusters soon,they didn't really look all that good this morning compared to recent days,yes there was still some N blocking but not much amplification.

i think you mean the 12z runs

ECM much improved at 192,could see a runner into the south on day ten...

The ECM is very similar to the UKMO at 144 with regards to the shortwave off the ESB and is a better run in that respect than this morning.

Yes,it's certainly changed for the worst since yesterday,but they flip flop just as much as the models do.

@LRD,yes it would be a shame, I am just wondering if the lag effect from La nina is playing a part with this Atlantic ridge, maybe someone can add to this as it is not my forte ens and 850's for my local ECM rolling out now,C'mon ECM

Afternoon everyone, been cooking Sunday lunch so i have not had much time to post,...have i missed much!!! good model runs this afternoon and an impressive mean to boot well out into fl too also quite a few gefs ens are going for a northerly too over the Xmas period pert 11 i hope that they are not lying to us

The amplification(on both the 06z,12z) comes in after that point TSNWK ,192>

UKMO definitely more amplified than the gfs at 144...

JFF... i raise you pert 15. gefs ens,certainly trending colder over the Xmas period.

Look at that gefs mean at 240

The ext EPS shows that Atlantic ridge post Xmas.

Looking out over the Christmas week in the gefs ens there is quite a few northerlies,so not a done deal yet.

Quite right Damian i don't want to derail the thread but just a reply from me many of the great snowy winters occurred after Dec and into Jan/feb lets not forget this peeps,if it snows on the big day,so be it,it would be a bonus and it would be nice to see but i would just like to say that if we don't get snow on the big day i wouldn't be bothered if we get pummeled the month after and the month after that, seems more feasible. we get more snow in the latter winter months than Dec,fact.

Even at 336 hrs there is a decent ridge into Greenland.

...AND ON THE 11TH DEC but i see your sarcasm there is much to play for looking at the day ten gefs ens>

This post genuinely brought a tear to my eyes... you are a true star on here and will be solely missed but i cannot argue with what you say take care mate and i still hope that you post as they are very valuable as for the models:- whilst we have Arctic heights still showing over the pole,there will be many flip flopping NWP'S in the next 7-10 days or so i can guarantee that what i am saying is that the models perfect well in zonal weather but not in these situations that we have now,there is so many parcels of high pressure being modelled that the NWP's cannot handle,these little features will be modelled incorrectly at any given time more so the more out of the reliable timeframes we go and there is no way that the models will forecast a Christmas whiteout or a BBQ on the day,so sit tight guys and take a break for a couple of days if it is getting to you,but like me(a hardened coldie) i am always on here regardless take care all.

Evening guys i will make it quick as it's getting late... no nwp model will forecast what the big day will be at 15 days out,fact stick to the max at 144 hrs out only as this will save you despair,fact listen to the more knowledgeable posters,they know what they are talking about(i am not one of them) he! he! but i know a bit and i take in all of the posters views trust me it's the same every year in here that peeps get downbeat if the models are not showing winter Narnia charts,that's the rollercoaster about this thread,as the charts show winter Narnia one minute then puff they are gone the next run or the run after what i will say is that we are in a better position than last winter,we just have to be patient...as always there have been some good posts again today regardless of the negativity in here, @Uncertainy great post mate as i said 15 days is a long long way out to determine what the big day will be like in it's self,so sit tight for a few more days yet,the models will struggle with block features yet to come JMA 10 hpa not too shabby at day 11 well i thought that this post would be quick lol night guys and don't stress...yet.

I have just ordered a snow plough for Christmas off Ebay for 5 quid... i could do with something more appropriate if the gfs nails what it has been showing... Great post's today/tonight,this is why i love this thread with hopefully a build up to a white Christmas there hasn't been many of those about i am going to take a punt at the bookies tomorrow night all. P.S @Paul,no hunt for cold thread this season?

The mean starting to come down over the festive/Christmas period.

Lets see how advanced the Siberian trough has evolved over the last three days on the EPS... 07th December at 240 08th December at 216 09th December at 192 you can clearly see the trough extension out of Siberia heading SW towards NE Europe,also heights gaining into the Atlantic/Greenland area.

It has strengthened on every run Phil