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Everything posted by Allseasons-Si
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Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Turn for the SE in phase one... turn tor the NE in phase two... all roads lead to cold on this run..lets not hope it is in Italy -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It's all words under the rainbow,it's...ing great Nick to peeps,if this comes off it's not a toppler when heights lower to our south. -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Now the gfs is starting to smell the Santa coffee... up she goes blimey gfs,you know how to cause drama don't you. -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The 18z is a few 100 miles north better with the ridge. though i think it will take until next WINTER to catch up with the ECM -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Love it this is me viewing the 12 gfs then this is me viewing the ECM then this is me in reality... ...MET OFFICE anyway,the 18z ICON is more amplified than the 12z and a shallower low 18z at 120 v's 12z at 126. now the final run of the day...the 18z gfs... prams and dummies in tact -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
As is potential optimism But you are right as it is still ten days away,lovely ECM though it has to be said and as @nick sussex says there would be a cold lock in from there with re-newed height's in the Atlantic. -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That trough in the Atlantic is disrupting against the block at 216,and it should go under. Edit: and it does... BEAUTIFUL -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
WAA going up into W Greenland at 192... BTW,did anyone see the control run...."BONKERS" it does look like some of the EPS clusters with height's to the NW/NE with trough dropping down into Europe. -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I like the ECM at 168 v's this morning with more amplification into the Atlantic. obviously there is slight timings but you can't split 12 hrs on the ECM. -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Don't worry,the GEM saves the day.... in all seriousness,there is plenty of time for upgrades,...if any -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I wouldn't worry about the micro bits in fl just yet, lets get this ridge into play first as the macro details are within the same theme. -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
More or less strait vertical WAA up the west side of Greenland,good run this Ed. just to add... look at the trop pv and NH profile,...stunning. -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes Ed,more amplified off the ESB 192> -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Doh!,it's the one behind that we need to watch,the nor'easter is the one that looks like a bowling ball to the west of us at 102. -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Whilst we all are focusing on the big day,Ireland could be hit by a nasty little low and that ESB winter storm looks nasty this is our friend or foe in how it traverses over in the Atlantic. -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Personally Mike i don't see much wrong with those anomalies(correct me if i am wrong),of course they are broad-brush just like any other anomalies that get posted but as long as we get those -ve height's into mainland Europe with +ve height's to the NW/N or NE we are in a good position we can take all positives from todays outputs but there will be toing and throwing in the coming days yet regarding these. -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes @Jon Snow and wouldn't it be ironic to have a cold spell in the heart of winter esp over the holidays where it would be more enjoyable for the family and kids to get out and enjoy,we deserve this and like you say after a really crap year everyone would take full advantage of it,well if you are of a cold persuasion... but lets get there first 18z starting to roll out now so it's... ...time -
I was going to post that in the Strat thread but Ed's already posted the chart in there.
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Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
.........And the cpc are starting to come on board now in the extended and the NAO/AO still in neg territory i will give that a third clap... great upgrades today... please keep it up -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Heights to the north and pressure dropping into mainland Europe. -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion