Allseasons-Si

Great run this,and i love it in here at the moment,...it's buzzing... 12z gfs>>>...18z gfs>>> reload incoming at 288.

They look overly baked to me

It's miles further SE,this is what we want,watch out towards the Svalbard region,we could tap into some of that cold air.

A smidgen further east at 186... is it me or does it look like a pram....OK,keep your toys in it gfs nice chart though.

@MATTWOLVES did you get your finger stuck on the post button^^^

Sorry if these have already been posted... but they don't look half bad to me 5 blocking features-red 6 Atlantic ridges-violet and only 2 +NAO-blue the understanding of these clusters if you haven't already read this:- The new clustering product show geopotential height at 500hPa and 1000 hPa (black contours) from specific ENS members (scenarios) that better represent the cluster centroids. In the case of the scenarios at 500hPa geopotential height anomalies are overlayed in colour shading. When the ensemble distribution is sufficiently homogeneous the cluster algorithm cannot partition the ensemble in a meaningful way, for these cases the ensemble member that better represents the ensemble mean is shown. Each scenario, defined at 500 hPa, is associated to one of 4 pre-defined large scale climatological regimes. The frame colour of each plot represents the association to the climatological regimes. Scenario with a red frame indicates that its large scale features resembles the ones represented by the blocking, blue indicates association with Positive NAO pattern, green indicates association with negative NAO and violet with the Atlantic ridge pattern.

Considerably more downstream troughing East'n USA on the 18z ICON... 18z 120 v's 12z 126

Only joking Scott it's nice to have another addition to the MOD family

It's that one off the Ipswich coast.

Unfortunately,...NO Geography is.

yes i know... 2 times a day 14 times a week 56 times a month and 672 times a year but i know what you mean maybe something's a foot this time though... is that snow>>>

What do people won't...SW'ly crud? these are great synoptic charts being churned out by both the gfs/gefs and ecm i know this chart is at day ten but it looks like lock and load from the NW to me... look at north America...you can virtually see the whole of the continent with low height's draining away,and as you can see by the red arrows there is still plenty of amplification to our NW to deflect more systems on a NW-SE trajectory (black circle/arrow).

Is the mean on the funny juice here... still smacks of potential even at 312 Meteociel - Panel GEFS WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

The gefs mean at 240 and much more improved from this mornings with the Atlantic ridge.

The gfs looks OK for these guys in the Atlantic.... joke aside,it is still showing the same synoptic outlook that it has been showing for a couple of days now so that's a good trend and the overall pattern is in similar format,it's way too far out for the fine details yet so i wouldn't worry about it for now here are gfs,UKMO,gem and ICON at 144 hrs the key here is as someone mentioned is the amplifying downstream trough in eastern states of America,the more amplified the better upstream ridging into the Atlantic,the other factor to take into account is that Arctic/Urals high of which again will play it's part further on into the output.

If you print screen on full size(if you have pc),then paste it into paint you get a better image

Thanks for this John it got me thinking that maybe there should be a separate thread with all these links to sites/models etc etc! as they would get lost in here with all the clutter and the amount of post's seems a reasonable idea.

I am not too sure about that,the 528 dam line almost clears the country. it is a bit marginal though so most of the snow if any would be reserved for the hills and lower ground in the north.

It's on it's way but slower

"Missing data alert"

That is one mangled trop pv.

Superbowl 2020... i am bowled over

The trigger low is still there over Iceland on the 18z 174. another good run coming up.

@Mr Frost Brrrrh!!!,you just sent a shiver down my spine lol yes if we can't have snow then i am looking foreword to a crispy/chilly/sunny and frosty Christmas morning,...bring it on,that seems like a decent starter before the main course...hopefully,there has been some consistency showing in the models since last night for more of an amplified ridge in the Atlantic but we need to see this get to closer timeframes The 12z ICON at 120 has some snow from the midlands north as the low pulls away but the 18z is further SW so still some uncertainty of the track of this feature. Have a great Christmas and happy new year

ABSOLUTELY GORGEOUS ECM 240.