Allseasons-Si

I am surprised no one posted the 12z ICON with a cold pool of air building out east with trough maybe disrupting S/SE but i do like the gfs 12z with that arctic high...yummy!!!

The Winking Man. The Winking Man | Webcam WWW.WINKINGMAN.CO.UK Please ask for permission to post images from this webcam/Camsecure/website COPYRIGHT © 2015 THE WINKING MAN...

There is snow settling there now.

That block to our E/NE is determining the weather ATM and it will provide so many outcomes/scenarios across the NWP'S for a good while yet with a holding pattern,whether troughs disrupt SE under the block is one scenario or will the lows ride over the top(alternative scenario)? the UK hangs on a balance regarding this we are at the mercy that if the heights are not strong enough or north enough to disrupt the lows/troughs SE enough then the high will sink SE it is a give or take at the moment and i couldn't tell you what is going to happen ATM.

Anyway is this the regional thread to see if it will snow in my back garden in the N,S,E or west? this is the model output thread am i right,there is so much clutter in here that you would think it wasn't OK,back to the models and i can see amplification returning on this run.... 18z at 156 v's 12z 162 thanks to the downstream trough off the eastern seaboard,the more amplified that is the less it becomes phased with the UK trough.

The elements are still there for some type of blocking but will we benefit from this is another question? but the 18z is giving me palpitations to say the least,in a good way. goodnight all.

Yes i touched up on this the other day(+pna) that will force trough in eastern states and amplify ridge in the Atlantic,but is this the player,i am torn between Atlantic/Scurasian ridge at the moment as is the NWP'S

Heights to our north but we need an injection of cold around the east periphery of the high still though a better run than the 12z.

...But something interesting is starting to unfold at day 9,and no it's not my book of shakespeare on page nine.

That Scurasian block is causing all sorts of headaches in the NWP'S with lows,troughs and shortwaves trying to push S/SE translating into a stalemate scenarios.

OK,time to look at the NH view at 120 and there are differences upstream with the trough separation to the NW a clean break over NE states compared to the 12z 18z 120 v's 12z 126 but the phasing with trough over the UK and north Atlantic shortwave is still an issue.

The low is about 100 miles or so further south Shaky than the 12z,this is why the PPN/snow is too.

Yes looks like a midlands north event if you could call it that,still a lot to resolve even on the day/night. WWW.METEOCIEL.FR Meteociel propose de manière régulière le modèle à maille fine ICON-EU 0.065° du DWD (météo allemande) sur 5 zones (France...

Latest eps clusters show plenty of N 'ern blocking in our vicinity but as @Nick F says,there isn't much to shift this pattern at the moment with this trough parked over the UK.we want this trough to push further SE cleanly without other shortwaves phasing with it so that the high can build over the top and then retrogress west(this is a natural route because of lower heights in mainland Europe) then into the Atlantic and then up towards Greenland,this in turn would allow floodgates to open from the north,some of the gefs ens shows this route as you have probably viewed,a tall order i know but not impossible.

Lol MATT you are a true entertainer,love your posts and what could go wrong goes wrong on the trusty NAVGEM get out the barbies,i mean the bbq's a trend setter or a dud? we can't be too complacent by what the good models are showing and vice versa.

We are not far away(forecast) from going into neg values now especially the AO,this should slow down the trop pv or become reversal with high latitude blocking,where these high latitude blocks form or occur is anyone's guess but there are some outrageous charts showing up in the gefs ens the NAO goes into neg too with more of a buckle in the jet stream(meridional flow) as is what we are seeing happening now in the models,how long these neg values will persist is again unknown in the more mediate time,an interesting week to ten days coming up weather wise and on the models good luck everyone

Sorry MODS for overreacting and was uncalled of me anyway the day the ECM mean pressure and 850's still looks on the cold side ECM ens flatlining. EPS at day ten and there doesn't look like the trop pv ever existed over the north pole.

@Mike Poole,thanks for that^ The gfs/p from this morning perturbs the vortex somewhat,the gfs 12z kind of tries to get some warming going. it will be interesting to see what happens as we tick along this month.

Get the shortwaves in first Nick and then the cold and snow will follow Jokes aside,there is so much uncertainty at days 5-6 between the models it's like watching dancing on ice one minute then watching strictly come prancing the next let's see where this week takes us first before worrying about the following week and the next,and the next etc.

That's better at day ten...arctic rabbit='s arctic weather

The ECM opening up that gap at 120 over NE states,it's more amplified than the 00z.

Pert 3,28 has it nailed only because it shows us what we want to see jokes aside,most of the gefs ens at day ten>do not show zonality at all so we should wait and see,a slow burner still looks on the cards.

The gfs 18z keeps -4 uppers right through fl into the uk,these would come down further i would of thought nearer the time great 18z,lets see if this momentum continues in the morning night guys and don't have nightmares

Big Scandi ridge on this run and trough out in the Atlantic disrupting far out west with no zonal in sight,this is in my eyes an epic run thank you pub run

If this comes off... wedges ='s sledges big time what a run.