Allseasons-Si

The control is of interest too with the canceling out of the trough digging south and an easterly starting to show it's hand through central Scandinavia with a very cold pool of -16 uppers.

Yes NWS,we deserve a bit of good fortune after last season's diabolical.

And Gonzo-nality!!!

JFF but here we go... some of the 0z gefs ens was showing this pert 24 is a cracker La nina print trying to show it's hand in the extended?

Probably back down to earth from cloud cuckoo land with a full on zonal no doubt that has been the theme in recent days with the morning runs much flatter we just need these day ten charts to become unstuck.

The gfs is a step in the right direction to the ECM as Steve says... but we don't want these two lows to phase with one another,this would prevent blocking taking hold and cut off the cold feed west.

That link didn't work but copied and pasted it in google it does show in the minority that there is heights into Scandi though Blue but the behavior of this trough i am sure won't be resolved just yet.

And southwards,our goal posts are very tiny on this little patch of land

I did a bit of digging at the EPS timestamps and here is what i came up with and as you can see below are the upper dynamics of the 500mb geopotential height anomalies from the EPS(i don't have access to the extended but i think @bluearmy does and to name a few more) today's 192 v's Wed 240 and there are two marked differences,firstly you can see the trough to our NW digging/disrupting further south and secondly stronger heights into Scandi... also Matt Hugo tweeted this not long ago.

The 12z ecm mean v's 00z at day ten... clearly shows a pressure rise into Scandi,all hope may not be lost if we can get this trough to our NW to disrupt S/SE like the op did then there could be possibilities from there, a long shot i know...

Well that's a bit rude.... we have a somewhat very huge Pembrook dangler at day ten through the UK as for the ECM,a nice profile and there is some gefs ens support regarding the block to our E/NE.

And Scotland too.

similar synoptic charts where showing the same a few days ago though Crew i do understand that the jet is digging more SE and there is residual heights to our north/northeast but the ECM doesn't show this my money is on getting this trough pushed through and maybe a La nina print should hopefully amplify the jet in the Atlantic,seem this in some of the gefs ens and hopefully the way forward to leading a cold snap/spell as we go through mid December.

Yes me too BFTP but i stand by the fence only to sit on it ATM, there is so much volidity in the models right now that i cannot take credence.

I really don't know what is going to happen here but at 204 we have another neg tilted low,the residual heights over the Iceland area is proving difficult for the gfs...but i like the drama.

That must be the most neg tilted low that i have ever seen. l

Still does. i don't know why though

I don't mind it either NWS,the ECM going with the met,the gfs going with what it wants

Quite right Jules we need more amplification from the ridge to get lower heights into Europe,what more can we ask for,still the models cannot settle their differences at 120 so i would worry just yet.

Yes the difference is quite stark to say the least,which one will be cannon fodder.... both of them at that range the differences lie on that trough coming out off the ESB(eastern seaboard) at 120,the ECM has this more amplified hence a stronger ridge ahead of it creating wider separation of the two lows.

The gfs doesn't look as amplified as the ICON and UKMO in my view 144hrs.

ICON first out and it looks fine and settled towards 180 hrs with fog and frost a possibility but with some subtle differences with regards to this trough i have circled in black at 168 12z 168 v's 00z 180 12z at 180 ,you can see that trough out of Newfoundland,this is key to get amplification ahead of it so something to watch on subsequent runs.

Just looking at the De-built ens over in central Holland from ecm and you can see some of the ens starting to show some cooler/colder options in the extended as with the dew points too,remember anything from sub 0c or lower with a continental dry flow would be sufficient for snow a look at the wind direction and as you can see by the dark red circle,some of the ens show a N/NW'ly flow around the 26th Nov backing NE/E(black circle) obviously this is just an observation at the moment but i will be keeping an eye on this to see if a signal grows stronger in the next few days. http://www.weerplaza.nl//Content/Images/icon-app.png 15daagse Midden - Weerpluim ECMWF-EXPERT | Weerplaza.nl WWW.WEERPLAZA.NL Bekijk de 15 daagse trend Europees weermodel voor regio Midden. Weergave van de ECMWF-EXPERT pluim met de lange...

Not all people have wide screens Paul,he he anyway pert 26 looks dead like the run up to the cold spell of Nov/Dec 2010 with a similar synoptic pattern where heights start to build in the N Atlantic and into Greenland by the retrogression west of the Scandi high...(check my post last night) obviously this is just one ens and one run but you never know what is going to happen in a couple of weeks from now.