Allseasons-Si

The gfs is a step in the right direction to the ECM as Steve says... but we don't want these two lows to phase with one another,this would prevent blocking taking hold and cut off the cold feed west.

That link didn't work but copied and pasted it in google it does show in the minority that there is heights into Scandi though Blue but the behavior of this trough i am sure won't be resolved just yet.

And southwards,our goal posts are very tiny on this little patch of land

I did a bit of digging at the EPS timestamps and here is what i came up with and as you can see below are the upper dynamics of the 500mb geopotential height anomalies from the EPS(i don't have access to the extended but i think @bluearmy does and to name a few more) today's 192 v's Wed 240 and there are two marked differences,firstly you can see the trough to our NW digging/disrupting further south and secondly stronger heights into Scandi... also Matt Hugo tweeted this not long ago.

The 12z ecm mean v's 00z at day ten... clearly shows a pressure rise into Scandi,all hope may not be lost if we can get this trough to our NW to disrupt S/SE like the op did then there could be possibilities from there, a long shot i know...

Well that's a bit rude.... we have a somewhat very huge Pembrook dangler at day ten through the UK as for the ECM,a nice profile and there is some gefs ens support regarding the block to our E/NE.

And Scotland too.

similar synoptic charts where showing the same a few days ago though Crew i do understand that the jet is digging more SE and there is residual heights to our north/northeast but the ECM doesn't show this my money is on getting this trough pushed through and maybe a La nina print should hopefully amplify the jet in the Atlantic,seem this in some of the gefs ens and hopefully the way forward to leading a cold snap/spell as we go through mid December.

Yes me too BFTP but i stand by the fence only to sit on it ATM, there is so much volidity in the models right now that i cannot take credence.

I really don't know what is going to happen here but at 204 we have another neg tilted low,the residual heights over the Iceland area is proving difficult for the gfs...but i like the drama.

That must be the most neg tilted low that i have ever seen. l

Still does. i don't know why though

I don't mind it either NWS,the ECM going with the met,the gfs going with what it wants

Quite right Jules we need more amplification from the ridge to get lower heights into Europe,what more can we ask for,still the models cannot settle their differences at 120 so i would worry just yet.

Yes the difference is quite stark to say the least,which one will be cannon fodder.... both of them at that range the differences lie on that trough coming out off the ESB(eastern seaboard) at 120,the ECM has this more amplified hence a stronger ridge ahead of it creating wider separation of the two lows.

The gfs doesn't look as amplified as the ICON and UKMO in my view 144hrs.

ICON first out and it looks fine and settled towards 180 hrs with fog and frost a possibility but with some subtle differences with regards to this trough i have circled in black at 168 12z 168 v's 00z 180 12z at 180 ,you can see that trough out of Newfoundland,this is key to get amplification ahead of it so something to watch on subsequent runs.

Just looking at the De-built ens over in central Holland from ecm and you can see some of the ens starting to show some cooler/colder options in the extended as with the dew points too,remember anything from sub 0c or lower with a continental dry flow would be sufficient for snow a look at the wind direction and as you can see by the dark red circle,some of the ens show a N/NW'ly flow around the 26th Nov backing NE/E(black circle) obviously this is just an observation at the moment but i will be keeping an eye on this to see if a signal grows stronger in the next few days. http://www.weerplaza.nl//Content/Images/icon-app.png 15daagse Midden - Weerpluim ECMWF-EXPERT | Weerplaza.nl WWW.WEERPLAZA.NL Bekijk de 15 daagse trend Europees weermodel voor regio Midden. Weergave van de ECMWF-EXPERT pluim met de lange...

Not all people have wide screens Paul,he he anyway pert 26 looks dead like the run up to the cold spell of Nov/Dec 2010 with a similar synoptic pattern where heights start to build in the N Atlantic and into Greenland by the retrogression west of the Scandi high...(check my post last night) obviously this is just one ens and one run but you never know what is going to happen in a couple of weeks from now.

This is the ECM at 96 hrs v's the reanalysis for the 3rd of Nov 2010 and bears similarities in our part of the world now you wouldn't think that the epic winter of 2010 would come from that chart,it just goes to show how things can quickly turn a few days later 8th Nov i have seen this in some of the recent gefs ens fast forward a few more days and you still wouldn't think that this would amount to much 15th Nov fast forward a few more days and the trough to our NW starts to disrupt against the block to our E/NE 18th Nov trough has cleared S/SE of the UK allowing heights to build in the Atlantic,Greenland and Scandinavia 20th Nov these heights push further north into Greenland and get trapped in that location thanks to lower heights on the periphery of the high 24th Nov 27th of Nov shows the holy grail of grails there is some similarities this year but most if not all of the pieces of the puzzle have to fall in the right place to get these holy grail charts this season will not be like last season where we had a +IOD,this year we have a slightly -IOD 2010 had a strong La nina as we have now but trending lesser 2010 also didn't have an SSW not that you will have one as early as Oct to produce the Nov/Dec 2010 severe cold spell and not all cold spells have to come from SSW's and even then if we do have a SSW this winter it is not guaranteed that a cold spell will hit the UK and it could be somewhere else in the mid lat's so what have we learned over this week:- the key one where the models forecast substantial heights to our E/NE and the easterly was showing a lot in the NWP'S/ens only to go piff,paff,puff by @Froze were the Days,lol loved that anyway,enough of me for now but like i said the other day,i am a long time poster and i have seen these models get watered down like my garden in the summer take care all and i hope that we can enjoy Christmas with our families,that would be nice C U for now.

ECM day ten,not quite there but def a step in the right direction in terms of getting more amplification from that ridge.

@ 216 @trough...disrupt you git

ECM at 192... here we go again @ modelled high pressure #3,726...of the season. day ten could be interesting,now where have i heard that before

Well there is still quite a few gefs ens disrupting the trough near or west of the UK by day ten> including the control here is a select few then check out Pert 19 so maybe not a done deal on blowing the block away more runs needed...