Allseasons-Si

I was just about to post a comment about that myself and it all ends up in a big standoff. the first signs maybe?

Pessimist

Here is an interesting read:- How will La Nina affect our winter weather? | Official blog of the Met Office news team BLOG.METOFFICE.GOV.UK La Niña is now present in the tropical Pacific and forecasters are suggesting these conditions... and the strong La nina event that started to take place in July that year,interesting. http://en.wikipedia.org//static/favicon/wikipedia.ico 2010–12 La Niña event - Wikipedia EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

That seems a fair estimate but i will raise you a tad and go with -17.6,my expectations are willing to be slightly higher that yours as for here i would plump for -5.7.

You are not wrong there Damian 2009/10 and 2010/11 where both coming out of the solar cycle minimum i believe and produced the wintry goods but also solar max has produced i think it's to do with other factors/puzzles that also have to align correctly and there are so many of them like i posted in the mod thread the other night but like you say,it cannot get any worse than last winter and i think we are in a better position this time,,,,hopefully.

Course there is but which year ??? come on we are barely into autumn anyway,long post coming up:- back to model viewing,i have an inkling that if we get a hp cell parked near or over the UK there is every possibility of it shifting west in time to allow for more of a polar maritime influence,i say this because the mjo is heading into the favorable phases of 7-8-1 gefs and ecm to a lesser extent as always because it's legs only go out to day ten the only problem here is that they are not amplified enough(away from the cod)(circle of death) to diminish a full on zonality to become more amplified and meridional if you know what i mean,IE:- more amplified,the more meridional(red arrows) here is an illustration of the jet in zonal and amplified modes- to get the amplification you will need wave breaking,wave breaking is the break up of low pressures at an extent where high pressure forms in between lows sufficient enough to break the chain of the lows,this in turn causes amplification between low's and then a buckle effect is then created in the jet stream the NAO/AO(North Atlantic/Arctic Oscillation) are pretty much in the same family as to what drives our weather in the NH(NORTHERN HEMISPHERE),sos for the caps lol at the moment the NAO/AO are at a neutral phase and are forecast to become slightly positive,this in turn enhances the zonality of the weather patterns CPC - Climate Weather Linkage: Teleconnections WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV as you can see the AO is going into a positive territory,this in turn ramps up the pv from it's wake and sets the turn for a more zonal westerly regime forcing the NAO to aslo drive west what we want is a -NAO/AO(dream scenario) but a -NAO can work as long as there is sufficient amplification in the Atlantic to slow the jet stream and become negative and buckled(meridional) as you can see below,here are the 10/30 hpa temps over the north pole Climate System Monitoring / TCC DS.DATA.JMA.GO.JP Climate System Monitoring / TCC at the top of the strat the temps are colder the the average mean(grey line),this is quite normal,this is what i will always monitor going into the winter months if you get an uptick like this going into the winter months then this signals a SSW(sudden stratospheric warming) not all SSW's will result in a cold winter in the UK as we have found out recently(cannot remember the year)but favor more blocking and colder weather to push further south out of the pole into the mid latitudes sorry for the long post,i just got a bit bored,i wish that i didn't book/waste this week off work but my OH was in hospital until thursday this week with a stomach hernia so it has been hard going,she was tested three times over the ten days in staying in hospital for COVID-19 and all came back neg which is great news,i don't want to derail the thread but this year has been a testing time to say the least i feel this winter has a more traditional feel to it,maybe just me but we do have some puzzles of the jigsaw in our favour:- La nina(not to strong) -1.5 will do solar minimum(time lag)-1-2 years -IOD(a lot better than last year)-what a crap year that was and lastly-QBO,GET A GRIP and that is it,let the cat face the flap(Paddy Mcguinness) night all and stay away from covidiots

Dohh!!!! of course,i didn't check the bottom right of that radar run you posted,i blame my eyes (dry eye syndrome) for that one

Cheers Matt what is the sub'n for that site?

Some showers heading towards you now in NW Wales with sferics.

Hello @Woodboss and a warm welcome to the forum you can check out the wind gusts near you on this site. Wind Map - Britain Observations WWW.XCWEATHER.CO.UK

Sorry I don't have the access to the UKV but i am sure someone will post them

Well there isn't much to discuss about the models this afternoon/evening as they look to be a standard affair with a NW>SE split with the best of the dryer sunniest weather in the SE and unsettled further NW as per the latest Met musings too typical autumn weather really but i hope this pattern becomes unstuck as we trickle into the winter months stay safe all and try to enjoy the rest of your evening laters.

There is plenty more to come from the SW by the looks of it MTMS.

Keep an eye on that line/squall NW of the channel islands,looks like the SE has it's name on it.

Put some sails on it,it might go faster just kidding stay safe

Now that is a long way off Blue

The control is also gunning for a northerly...

Yes Pete,a tame affair but nice to see some WWA being pumped up the pv's backside certainly the op/control have been toying with this scenario over the last couple of days.

I know! i know! i know!,it looks good doesn't it but too many.... lets see what transpires in the next few days.

The gfs 06z is not playing the ECM ball here and i feel a bit deflated by it at day ten but what is lurking in fl? too many options on the table if you ask me i hope the ecm is on the money though.

There could be some interest today as well as tomorrows squall line,a few heavy showers have developed in the south. Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 23 Oct 2020 - 05:59 UTC Sat 24 Oct 2020 ISSUED 06:45 UTC Fri 23 Oct 2020 ISSUED BY: Dan Showery bursts of rain across East Anglia and SE England on Friday morning has a very low risk of lightning (5-10% chance). Meanwhile, a weakening band of frontal rain will spread eastwards across Britain through the day, although there may be a temporary uptick in intensity late morning from Isle of Man to NW England, and perhaps again during the evening over the English Channel. Behind this front, an upper trough will swing northeastwards across Northern Ireland and Scotland, with scattered showers likely in an environment with steep mid-level lapse rates and a few hundred J/kg CAPE. As such, a few isolated lightning strikes could occur here (10-15% chance). These will ease by evening as ridging develops ahead of the next Atlantic frontal system, which will push an active cold front eastwards across Ireland during the early hours of Saturday - given the strongly-sheared environment, some bowing segments are likely which may produce locally damaging gusts of wind. Squally showers will also follow into western Ireland at the end of the night. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/favicon.ico Convective Weather WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

Maybe i should of put it clearer,should the sun break through(i know it's getting lower now) that it would be warm-er during the day and certainly colder at night still it looks fine and settled but it's a long way off though Damian,will the gfs catch up on this scenario or will the gfs be correct?

Let's see what transpires come November...

I for one am loving that EC chart Pete,i will settle for a nice settled spell with fog and frost and some warm days too,but what will happen after that let's get the OFI(October Fog Index) going

Sorry for another late one The control 18z is a real core punch in the latter stages of fl,with WAA pushing up into Greenland(black arrow) all for fun at this juncture but this could potentially be a precursor to getting cold through the back door(red arrows) AKA the beast from the east/NE Aaaaahhhh!!!!,i know it's early on in the season but it's good to talk about winter synoptics again,my favorite weather type bar the storm season let's get the dice rolling and pieces of the jigsaw puzzle placed hopefully in the right place OK,i am getting carried away now but what a dreadful 2020 it has been for all of us and i wish for piece going into 2021 stay safe all and take care C U for now.