Allseasons-Si

This looks a very dry run with plenty of fog and frost on the cards while the high migrates W/NW,lovely run.

Anything that doesn't look like a bowling ball is a good thing/bonus and that Pacific ridge would perturb the trop pv,now if the forecast is right and we get a ridge too going up through the UK and up into Scandi/Urals,this would be classed as a wave 2,all part of the fun this model malarky and we may get lucky going into December.

Ridge going up further west and earlier on the latest 12z gfs 12z 198 v's 06z 204 could be a good run this.

The UKMO has a Pacific ridge into the pole,it's not there on the gfs both at 144hrs what implications would this have down the line i wonder. Edit: just seen @booferking's post above^

Latest run from CFSv2 for Dec.

There is quite a bit of interest in the ens post day ten regarding heights to our N/NE.

Yes,a lot more amplified this run compared to the 00z... beast from the east round 4,596,473 anyone to be honest,flip flops spring to mind or is it a flop?

I wouldn't worry NWS,there is uncertainties regarding this northerly next weekend look at the stamps at just 108 hrs Shannon hasn't been mentioned this season,just saying

Yeah because our default weather comes from there AKA Zonality we just need some amplification downstream to buckle the jet into a more meridional flow and slow the zonal train down(+NAO) but that is just one part of the process,we also need some heights into the pole to disrupt the tpv.

Watching those heights build off the NE'ern states off Newfoundland,this could be our next opportunity.

That's a cool high now come on,have you been in Knockers crayon draw

When will you give us the GREEN light Nick!!!

The ECM at day ten is on the money... ...yeah!,monopoly money nice chart though.

Now this is what i want to happen.... Pert 12 ....but i know it won't

Firstly a warm welcome back @nick sussex I am late to to the party tonight and have spent a good chunk of an hour reading all the post's,by heck it's busy in here today,haven't you lot got anything better to do a look at the cpc for 6-10/8-14 500mb height anomalies suggest a cool upper NW'ly flow then heights returning from the south,this in turn would cut off the flow somewhat with the trough lifting out and settling down with some frost and fog more especially the SW obviously these are broad brush and don't show little features that could be running NW-SE in the flow and/or wedges of heights as these are not strong enough height wise to be shown in the anomalies talking of wedges,there is plenty showing up in the NWP's(det/ens models) to be of interest REMEMBER!!!:- make

There's nothing vile about those charts anyway....yeah! lol

Reposted from a thread i made earlier but thanks to @Jo Farrow for pointing me in the right direction Kildare,Ireland this morning.

Evening all,nice to see that the cold campers are out in force i am noticing in the NWP'S that there are heights getting trapped to our NW over the Greenland area from day 6-7,this has been picked out over the 12z recently,these trapped pools of heights act to force the jet further S/SE and forcing systems/lows to slide on a NW-SE trajectory and certainly something to watch over the next few days here is most of the models at 144 hrs and you can see that they are all broadly similar with these heights over Greenland The latest EPS now is showing some cooler shots from the NW at day ten the 18z gfs shows some sliders getting into the mix after day ten but i think i will leave that there for now

Anyone spot this Lenticular cloud this morning?

I think it will take that long lol there is a message on there now:- GFS 06Z is late because of a distribution data problem by NOAA/NCEP.

And cue the music guys with a nice tranquil violin.... there is nothing to suggest that there is any cold shot in the latest cpc anomaly charts:- upper flow from a westerly prob veering NW'ly in the ext'd with hp cell to our southwest,so looks like a cool high where it is positioned,favored spots in the NW and on mountains could see some wintry potential from a NW'ly though but it does look typical for Autumn-yes AUTUMN

And the 18z gfs is some 232 hrs behind

It would be nice to hear from @Glacier Point , @chionomaniac and @lorenzo about the upcoming winter,i know GP doesn't post nowadays but he does pop in at times during the winter months or run up to.

Check out Pert 29....it's an absolute DOOZEY!!!! an outlier in the ens or is it a trend setter

Looking goooood!!!