Allseasons-Si

Pert 23 showing the goods again... a ripping nor easter. and pert 11 giving us a pv visit.

Yes Zak let's hope that it is picking up a new signal/trend now i feel this is more feasible.

And the control is about to produce a northerly.

The control run at day ten has a runner low into southern counties/midlands perhaps producing snow on it's northern flank also,look at that Atlantic profile sharpening up,not your typical zonal sh te.

And after that northerly it would be cold and frosty enough keeping any snow that has fallen on the ground assuming this run was to verify,this has more chance of verifying than an easterly in my opinion. OK,the pub run was a good run and there could be a repeat too after that as the high pressure mostly stays out to our west.

"Forum meltdown alert" polar low incoming...

It's the silly hour besides,some of the 12z gefs ens was showing this.

BOOM!!! that's more like it.

This is not a moan but do you know what... scap this phantom eastery because it's not going to happen,last week it was showing the same synoptic forecast only for it to go bang and the easterly has gone let's hit the.... ..button and get a better pattern rolling and as i said all of that,the gfs does this... this is better in my opinion,lets get some action rolling because i am getting bored of chasing easterlies watch the eastery verify now

You need that little shortwave to cause more amplification upstream as was shown on the 12z gfs,that's why the ECM wasn't a great run because it wasn't there,not so much there on this latest run.

One things certain is that it is going to be cool for the next week to ten days or so after a fine day tomorrow here are the temps and pressure from gefs/ecm now what strikes me is the pressure patterns in the extended in both the gefs and ecm,fine margins for either getting fine weather or unsettled weather goes to ring Mrs shannon.

HA! HA! i bet you didn't put dung

What's it stand for again?.... Crap Forecasting System it's the same with the monthly anomalies,they chop and change every run,mind you saying that,so does fl charts on the gfs/gefs.

Here is the latest De-built ecm ens from central Holland just come out this evening v's two days ago ^and as you can see there is a tighter cluster of colder temps than two days ago where there was a split in temps ^same with the dew points ^wind direction and you can see the easterlies have been extended compared to two days ago,now the question is can we tap into this cold air from the continent?,my gut feeling says no and we would probably just miss out and i could be totally wrong http://www.weerplaza.nl//Content/Images/icon-app.png 15daagse Midden - Weerpluim ECMWF-EXPERT | Weerplaza.nl WWW.WEERPLAZA.NL Bekijk de 15 daagse trend Europees weermodel voor regio Midden. Weergave van de ECMWF-EXPERT pluim met de lange...

Day ten on the ECM just looks like rinse and repeat to me with more trough disruption against the scurasian block and Atlantic ridge still forcing the jet SE.

Yes,like the look of that and later on the crab is about to pince us with it's left claw some good ens in there but they always show this in fl lets see what the ecm comes up with.

I will try Shakey at the moment the models are forecasting trough disruption close to/or west of the UK as heights build to our NE,this trough disruption being forced SE into Iberia lowering heights there,then the forecast/models get a little sketchy after that,if we keep the lowering of heights to the south into mainland Europe then this in turn will prop the heights up then a possibility of heights retrogressing west into the Atlantic and then Greenland don't take this as gospel,we need the trough disruption to go right first. as Crew says there is a disconnect between strat/trop but if we can tap into some of that cold that is showing on the 30 hpa chart,it could be a potent blast also La nina could be influencing Atlantic heights later on so something to watch out for as is shown in some of the gefs ens.

Pert 23 would be the daddy out of them all synoptic wise with WAA going up the west side of Greenland,pv relocated over Siberia and lower heights to our south,a northerly blast of sorts coming up on this i would of thought.

Yeah similar to the morning's 06z run though the high topples in deep fl,all academic though that for out but nice to see some consistency.

The gfs has gone with this morning's run ICON,UKMO and gfs at 144.

UKMO better than this morning at 144.

@carinthian,two words for you,"absolutely stunning" thanks for sharing them,just hope we get scenes like that here this winter.

Yes,check previous page:D

My only qualm with the control run is that the Iberian low could do with being further east a tad or somewhere around Genoa to stop a southerly from taking hold there but i am being picky but the overall synoptic (NH) profile looks good,i just hope that the NWP'S can hold some consistency going forward.