Allseasons-Si

Gone is that pesky Scurasian ridge on this run...good riddance now lets get some good amplification in the Atlantic with a trough dropping down from the north into scandi and UK. time to turn in goodnight all.

Could be mate,the 06z had this similar scenario then dropped the idea by the 12z only to follow the trend on the 18z whilst we have them lower heights(as i said the other day) into Europe,this in turn should prop the heights up in the Atlantic and north of the UK if we can get these heights to back west a tad then it should enforce a northerly Edit:hey presto...the gfs 18z is having a go,look north.

The 18z ICON predicting snow in the NE and to an extent the SW meanwhile...the gfs is showing an easterly at day ten> and cannot be trusted,well not that far out anyway good to see corrections east with the trough from the models this evening...but we don't want it too far east otherwise greece would get all the cold weather

^That's a better update for the beginning of Dec.

The gfs is like chalk and cheese compared to this morning's 06z run in fl so no news there the GEM is a good run NH wise though.

Boy you've got some catching up to do,try years Just kidding mate the 18z gefs mean at day ten is a good match with the ECM,although the gefs is slightly better with heights up into Iceland/Greenland.

^not this time but i am hopeful that this evolution will continue great chat today and thanks to all of you for contributing,love it like this i do hope that we will be rewarded this winter,i really do and i am sure everyone else thinks the same,it has been a somewhat strange year as you all know with the COVID and i hope that we can nail it on the head prompto catch you all tomorrow for another epic find the snow charts,find the lowest thicknesses,dew points,wet bulbs etc and will it wont it parade from the fl posters(me included) as Jeremy clarkson says:- goodnight

Although the gfs is slightly underwhelming,the same theme is in conscious with the overall pattern a slow burner could reep rewards down the line as we go into Dec a neg tilted trough coming out of the states is a good thing IMO,this could slide under the block north of it with a northerly coming down from Iceland,good hallmarks there.

What the bloody hell is that? a death star in the Trop pv...bye @Tim Bland,yes the 18z is a carbon copy of the 12z..CONSISTENCY is key i have seen enough now,my brain hurts... night guys and take care.

LOL ,i love your humour but i agree with you nick,we seem to be getting the scrappy-doos in this part of the world... but i have to say though,it is better than the zonal dross that we had to put up with last year and the models do show some promise going forward,they always do

Should that trough/low over NE states becomes cut off...then we would be in business. 18z 222 v's 12z 226

Yes Mike,it turned out OK at that point so all is not lost,it just looked dodgy earlier and i thought that it would push further SW Edit: Amplification starting to show upstream at 174 off the NE'ern seaboard.

Hmmm!!!,that east Russian block is stronger sending the trough further SW.

Better heights into Labrador/Davis strait on this run.

Yes a slight shift SE from the ICON with the pressure and 850's 18z 120 v's 12z 126 C'mon gfs

Another good feature on the site i posted previously is the 850's and 300mb jet stream,you can run it by pressing play and speed it up,it is mesmerizing to watch Temperature @850mb > Europe WWW.MYWEATHER2.COM Information about Weather2, a company providing comprehensive forecasting and related weather services, historical climate...

Last one from me before the 18z pub run comes out,there is certainly some wintry potential (JUST FOR FUN)as we go into next week/weekend looking at the 12 gfs rain/snowfall charts from day six... Synop Imagery > UK WWW.MYWEATHER2.COM Information about Weather2, a company providing comprehensive forecasting and related weather services, historical climate... looking at the latest De-Built ECM ens wind direction and as you can see there isn't much of a zonal flow happening anytime soon(black line) but we may have to put up with a southerly flow(orange circle) but hopefully backing E/NE in the extended(maroon circle) of course this is across the channel in Holland but it gives you a general idea in our part of the world where the weather may come from,the temps and dew points are nothing special but i hope that changes over the coming days http://www.weerplaza.nl//Content/Images/icon-app.png 15daagse Midden - Weerpluim ECMWF-EXPERT | Weerplaza.nl WWW.WEERPLAZA.NL Bekijk de 15 daagse trend Europees weermodel voor regio Midden. Weergave van de ECMWF-EXPERT pluim met de lange... C U for now.

I will have to enjoy it with my snowman jokes aside,you are right Mike and i feel that we all in here have become closer netweather friends,i am certainly one of them that usually doesn't post until the run upto winter but this year i have been posting all year round anyway,back to discussion and that Scandi block is becoming strong,latest EPS at day ten.

Yep

Taking pert 28 in isolation and i have come to a conclusion,we need this trough deeper to penetrate both blocks to the west and east,this in term will send energy further SE into Europe and prop the heights building north of it pressure ens and chart at 144 hrs animation from 192> the more we send energy S/SE the better gefs ens 850's,that mean is coming down now close to -5 and is extending the cool spell,can we actually get a cold spell out of this?,it is possible.

Yes,looks like another trough disruption at day nine,rinse and repeat...

EC much better with better heights in the atlantic forcing the trough further SE.

The control run finishes on a spectacular NH profile,the trop pv splattered into the mid lats.

Can we have some charts to go with that please...

Yes there is and look at that Atlantic ridge on the mean at 336 and the control is not bad either at the same time.