smhouston

I've been absent a fair bit on these forums after getting very despondent with the main model thread dribble which is spouted every single year. Came back thinking things might be different but nope, still the same old ramping is the main view wanted, especially with my post being moved trying to put a bit of perspective on things even though I still mentioned about the ensembles being good but not great (so model discussion). The same "big" posters only appearing and talking about things in their back yard which is misleading to members. I was about to give up again and leave, then I thought I'd pop in to this thread....and it's like a breath of fresh air! I definitely do not claim to be a weather expert, I wouldn't even claim to hit novice level. I have been on here to notice trends though so like to think I can gauge an upcoming spell well. This one just isn't spectacular at all. Colder feeling but snow chances so far are minimal except for that one event next week. I do always believe you need to get the cold in place for the snow to follow so obviously it is a positive step. However, making comparisons to classic cold spells is absolute crazy. Had 2 posters claiming the Met and others non believers will have egg on face due to the upcoming spell they was using charts 10 days away as their basis for that!? Widespread snow event!? Absolutely ridiculous

Whilst not trying to steal West is Best mantle, I think a sense of reality is needed. People saying this is nailed on now and bringing up great winters it could compare against, we have heard it all before on here and it is quite confusing for newer members hearing soundbites like this. Quite a few years ago now, we had a "nailed on" snowy cold spell with complete model agreement yet it suddenly blew up spectacularly at T48 and it was a harsh lesson in that the models are simply that, predictions. There will be areas in the hemisphere where the stats gathering isn't as complete as other areas and can have big implications in modelling, as well as modelling have a human bias in it. We also have the UK snow shield. So I'm not trying to be a party pooper, but just issue a warning to try contain some of your excitement. In cold / snow situations anything T72+ should be taken with a pinch of salt With the above in mind, I think we can say now that things are going to get colder in the next couple of days. *Hopefully* that means these synoptics being raved about come to fruition and that will lead to snow further down the line. The essembles are good but not great, but obviously that'll have some of my own bias in that - NW / N don't usually provide anything for us in the East. However, get the cold in first and the instability and snow usually follows

Snowing in Chapeltown, Sheffield. Getting a bit heavier. Anyone else find the netweather forecast tool is rubbish nowadays with it not being able to predict anything even close to accurate even 24 hours out? Even the live radar is showing everything as rain. I used to recommend friends and family to use it but I just can't anymore

Sorry, I maybe being dumb, but don't those first 2 charts indicate only the West of the UK getting cold conditions and everyone else getting between 0-4c which is cold but nothing out of the ordinary, just typical winter temperatures?

Find the whole "GFS isn't get data which is why it's rubbish" laughable. People werent claiming this few days ago when it started coming in to line with the other models. As soon as it goes on a different tangent then out comes the conspiracy theories to somehow justify its wrong rather than picking up on a trend that things may not be as cold and rosey as it may seem. Not surprising an employee would come out with it when they're not getting paid. Threat to national security? Hmmm As for incompatible data formats, yeah maybe true, but a person will not be converting the data by hand, there will be software routines doing so Anyway, disappointing to still see the GFS not swing back, and even more so the UKMO taking a slight step away from cold. Hopefully not a trend? As ever though, FI is T96. No model handles cold scenarios well. Could argue ECM usually is too agressive with cold and usually waters it down nearer the time, purely based on what seen in the past

Not really,that just shows that people need to stop believing FI charts. Genuinely is pointless posting things 10 days out and getting excited (and even downbeat) by them when they will not look like that General theme looks like becoming increasingly colder. Looking dry at first which can be disheartening, but as ever we need the cold first. T144 is the absolute maximum for believing, and even then I'd be reluctant with that and would opt for T96, possibly T120. Cross model agreement needed (including the much, sometimes unfairly, criticised GFS). If there is any chance a UK cold spell could fail then it will

I can certainly see why this is a hunt for cold thread, should maybe even have hopecasting added. The fact people are getting excited at what charts are being produced over a week away shows how far we really are from actually getting something. When you see wintry theme snapped away within 48 hours of arrival despite complete model consensus several years ago it teaches you a very valuable lesson. Until all models are showing the same then the model showing your least favoured outcome will be correct, and even if they show the same, nothing is a given until it's happened. GFS being completely annihilated should be done so at your peril. No one model is correct, even 24 hours out the closest model will not be 100% what happens Unfortunately doesn't look like anything of note and hope will be shifted to mid to late January. Although, seems to be coming a pretty common theme in our winters

Oh, and it's hailing, ergh

What radar do people use?

Flippin heck, my work colleague lives in Brighton and even they have at least 5cm covering on the roads!

Thought we was going to be inline for the big beefy showers which went over Hull but typical it's going to be too far south for Sheffield Really can't win this cold spell

Lovely blue skies here in Sheffield (Chapeltown). Get the odd flurry every now and again but very small amount of snow from this morning has all melted now

What a waste of time down here in Sheffield. Even looking at the forecast there is only light showers forecasted for rest of week. People seem to big easterlies up yet every time they don't deliver for us Does make me laugh in the model discussion when they always about how the south haven't had anything compared to everywhere else all winter, yet we've also not had anything of note either! Definitely chucking toys out of pram. If it's going to be bitter then there needs to be snow else it can do one for me. Roll on spring warmth

I'd have to agree. This event was looking to be an awful lot of snow throughout this week for the Yorkshire area. That's unfortunately not the case anymore with us only really having Tuesday / Wednesday as the main event, and even then that only looks like it'll deliver a few cms. Sure some places will get more, but from where we was a week ago following the event through, it is rather a disappointment if it turns out like that.

I'm not one to usually post on here and I'm definitely one not to ramp. Even the last failed cold spell I warned people not to dismiss the GFS, so I'd like to consider myself pretty grounded when it comes to these situations! However, wow. I've been a member for a while on here and watch every winter for a special events to be modeled and then disappear eventually, but this one is something else. An absolutely classic winter spell is on the cards as much as I personally don't want it to be atm. How deep the cold gets, and the amount of shower activity to be generated off the North Sea, is something else. The models will be right this time, except for that low to the south I reckon. All down the east side of the country is 100% going to get an absolute pasting, and no doubt other areas will too. Do not underestimate how heavy and consistent the showers can be generated off the North Sea, and that will not be known until T0. Literally the best charts I've seen so close to the time from all my years on here, which is quite a long time now (14 years). For a different thread, but extremely surprised how this has not been publically escalated by the METO. Absolutely dangerous conditions coming up...it's not the snow that kills. Extremely worrying just how cold it'll get and there are a lot of vulnerable people out there.

With the record of Sheffield City Council, they've got no chance!

Also, how much of a factor does sun come in to play at this time of the year? Could there be a lot of melt come Friday midday say if it snowed Thursday?

What days are looking like being a risk? I'm meant to be popping away for a couple of nights next Friday / Saturday but must admit I'm concerned from what I'm seeing WRT to snow

A lot of people writing of the GFS...do so at your peril. We've been here time and time again, where there is always one model on it's own and things end up being watered down towards that model. Situations like this, you have to be getting them within T48 to even start feeling confident. As things stand, things are still in FI Nice viewing, but that's all so far

GFS one of the colder ensembles, so you'd have to say currently it looks like briefly turning very cold to then cold Need the ECM to come on board soon. It would be very surprising for it to be so wrong at this stage

IIRC, wasn't it the ECM which picked up the cold spell way way way before the UKMO and GFS, with both of those flipping and changing a lot and eventually were pulled towards it kicking and screaming? ECM never showed raging easterlies or buckets amount of snow. It's actually verified pretty damn good so far and consistently too. Also, we are currently in a cold spell and will be next week. What happens down the line is still up in the air. It wasn't even until T72 when we got models starting to agree on things for the past few days

The thing with the MOD thread is the comments tend to be biased towards the posters region. Can understand that though For us (South Yorkshire), got to admit I can't really see where we are going to get any "substantial" snow. Maybe a shower here and there but nothing of note IMO. Even the upcoming easterly of next week is having the S / SE in the firing line and whilst we are on the edge of some cold uppers, precipitation is hard to see. These things do tend to just crop up on you though Pretty pessimistic on our prospects so far TBH

Reactionary posts already coming out from people.it's one run. it's worrying ukmo has also flippped though However, you'll never get outstanding runs for 5+ days straight. People need to stop thinking models are reliable so far out. Winter synoptics are always volatile, and the most slight signal a model picks up on can affect everything If come the end of today we are still having the ukmo / gfs churning out these new versions, then you can start being concerned imo

Must have had a good 6 inches last night. Also experienced thunder snow last night and this morning!!

You've been told wrong then, there are many factors that dictate whether it is snow or not. You can get snow with less than -5 850s Read John Holmes will it snow guide