smhouston

WHat's the best site for the radar? It's getting heavier here now.

Good. They had the cheek to say the other day that we wouldn't mind it pushing further south because we've apparently done well this year? I can only speak for myself, but I'd only had a few CMs all winter. They are always wanting it to push further south for them so stuff them! Worried that the main heavy band is a lot further North than Sheffield.

Had a good covering overnight, a few CMs. Looking at the charts it looks like potentially a lot more to come. I'm West Sheffield (Stannington) so hoping might get a rather large amount!

I am a pessimist, but the charts are getting worse for our area. Tbh I think quite a few of us will be disappointed. Yes it will snow, but nothing like the sort of totals being mentioned, maybe a few CMs (at a rough guess). Unfortunately I feel the pennines are going to shelter us a lot

Still snowing here, probably around 1cm so far. It's going to be a bit of a non event really isn't it? Model thread always turns in to a SE thread

He also said this current cold spell wouldn't even happen (literally days before it started). I respect SM a lot, but don't take what he says as gospel neither

That's exactly what I meant yesterday when I said to you how can you trust the models so far in advance when they've struggled so badly. It could just be the 6z showing itself up again, but personally I shall be taking all the models outputs with a pinch of salt until a lot nearer the time

Are these the same models that have struggled extremely bad (some of the worse model agreement we've had at T72 and even below) in this current cold spell? How can you put so much faith in them so far out

I'd suggest leaving the chart reading to the experts IMO!

Bucket loads of snow on Monday with more on Tuesday Surely can't be many changes to that now with it being within T96!?

WOw, looking lovely so far! Must admit I thought it was going to be worse than the 6z at first. Amazing differences around T72

Don't know how you can say that TBH. The GFS for my region was saying T850s of 5+ for Monday only 1 to 2 days ago, now it's finally made it's mind up and gone for around -5, a massive difference, something which all the other models had been showing. Very poor from the GFS at such a short timescale. As IB said at the time, it's either going to be cold or mild, and it's definitely showing cold. I hope some people have learnt not to just jump on to 1 model, and wait until the ensembles have a lot less scatter than they had rather than winding people up with flippant statements. It was always likely that all the models would meet in the middle Anyway, very nice to wake up and see the GFS go for cold. As for the ECM mildness starting to show, didn't GP or BFTP say he was expecting a brief period of mild to come between the 16 and 21st before the "proper" cold comes in from the effect of the SSW?

It doesn't matter, look at the short term for changes that have a massive effect, which are proving to be the case I must admit I'm rather surprised GFS is backing down, especially with how persistent it was. The changes may seem small, but at the timesclare they are absolutely gigantic! Anyone saying it hasn't is a total WUM and should be banned IMO. It just confuses the newer members Hopefully get a cracking ECM, although, I'm expecting a more middle solution between it and the GFS

Surely the 06z isn't an outlier? Yes it's at the top end of the ensembles, but there are other ensembles that support it: Obviously a massive split though

Quite happy with the output this morning. I keep checking the ensembles once a day around the same time, and there is a definite trend of it getting colder mid-month which ties in with the other teleconnections other people have talked about. WIll it happen? Time will tell, but at least there is a possibility

Ah I see, so basically aslong as the source is from the E then that is what you mean. Thankfully I've learned not to believe models past T120 and not to worry too much about snowfall on them over the years! Get the cold first, and the 12Z does look a colder run! Good to see the UKMO finally coming on board. Starting to feel a bit more confident about the cold spell Where is nick when you need him to dish out the prozac to a few members

But that's not strictly true? There isn't any easterly showing at all anymore. Apologies if I've missed something Sorry for asking but why is it? If wanting just cold then yes, but surely that would just be dry with there being no wind? Obviously might be a stupid question but it'll help me (and maybe others) to understand.

Isn't this meant to be the "warm up" show before the main event in late December / January!? Has to be an outlier surely!? Ridiculous charts on offering by the ECM!!!! If you dislike cold then I suggest booking your place to Caribbean for this weekend for the rest of winter!

Hopefully the UKMO will reign some peoples ramping in a bit. We've seen it all before where 1 model decides to go the other way for everyone to dismiss it, but it ends up being a new trend. Dismiss the UKMO at your peril.

Very very brave forecast there. Nothing in the future is guaranteed when it comes to weather. I remember several years ago we was predicted very heavy snow throughout the country at T48. S Murr was already sitting on his sledge at top of his nearest hill waiting for it to come.Then poof, gone! Every model had predicted it wrong (barring maybe 1). It was the biggest kick in the gonads. The models are purely that, models. They give out predicted patterns of the world. For all we know, they could have totally misjudged something and we could have a Bartlett within 2 weeks. It's always been said on here to get the cold first, then the snow. We've got a lovely cold pool supposedly building in the NE, and IMBY we was in negative figures last night waking up to a cold morning, so to me that says the models might be getting that right. Anyway, models look good to me on my limited knowledge. Patience is the key. Either way, at least we've definitely got some cold* weather at this current moment * Depending on what your expectations are depends on whether you think it is cold

Heavy snow here in Sheffield. Secretly hoping my football match is called off! It's too cold

Any idea what the east coast of mexico is going to be like from 23rd August onwards? This is probably the wrong thread for me to post in, but I don't care about whether I get sun or rain....I'm just bothered about getting hit by hurricanes when I go (I don't want to be hit by one! )

Has anyone looked at the NMM Precip chart for tomorrow dinner? If that continues what it's showing then surely the metoffice will be putting out some more warnings very soon?

Got woken up at 8am this morning by my niece informing me we've got 4 inches of snow! Extremely surprised we've got any snow tbh!

Well that GFS run looks extremely good to me from a purely biased viewpoint! I'd be right in the firing line if the predictions were correct To be honest I wouldn't mind the milder air coming back in after (aslong as the snow got a couple of days to lay around) as it would be nice to have some warm weather....we haven't had anything for like 2/3 months now! lol