East_England_Stormchaser91

Can see the tops of those storms I'm sure approaching Hampshire and can clearly see the ones over Kent :O must be quite a height to these. Given that it's a clear night, I should see some distant night lightning !!

As said earlier, I expected most the fun and games to erupt the other side! Still early days though

Kent looks to have the first lot. My place of interest lies on what is exiting northwest Spain though. I'm assuming that's what will be the main event for the early hours. Looks pretty nasty!!

Such a knife edge this one is, as most of them are though! I just fear this may be a classic case of the French storms taking a last minute abrupt swerve NE and most of us miss out. 19th June 2013 was a classic example as was 27th July 2013, late August last year, 9th June 2014, 28th June 2011! All were forecasted pretty much the same as this today. We look bang on for storms as they are crossing the channel and then they all scurry off sharply up the Strait of Dover. 12 hours later we end up watching corkers over the likes of Antwerp, Bremen, Amsterdam and Hamburg. I know if it doesn't happen, I won't be too disappointed. As much as I hope I'm proven very wrong!

I can see where mesoscale is coming from entirely myself. I've lost count of how many times I've seen the real fun and games only unfold the other side of the channel when we have been forecast storms in this setup. Pretty much the whole time between 2007 and 2012 we saw nothing and the likes of Benelux hit gold. Only the last few years have we got very lucky on some occasions. The forecast to me clearly implies only a slight possibility that we may see some proper fun. If I could get the train to somewhere like Lille in the next 24 hours over staying in Kent, I'd be over there in a heartbeat. The steering winds to me look unfavourable, and would favour a big eastward shift as the event unfolds. Would not be at all surprised if we only see a usual Kent clipper scenario. Sorry to come across as a pessimist myself and a bit conservative of the forecast later, but it would be wishing on a triumph of hope over experience to think that we are going to be slammed by MCS of the decade. I've watched ad nauseum now the amount of times we've been disappointed over this type of setup!

I'm on nights this week. But rest assured, I'll be chasing if these trends continue. Essex and Suffolk look like good bets at the moment.

Can see this one going down to the wire. Even as the event unfolds, there are different outcomes as to what is modelled even at 3-6 hours out. Thermal advection is a tricky one to get right. Remember estofex slapping a level 2 on northern France on the 3rd July last year and they got absolutely nothing whilst things exploded over the south coast and South Downs!

Supercell going bonkers over Serbia in the level 3 zone issued by estofex over there!

12z showing yet another very slight shift west! These slight shifts however could make a vital difference to the all or nothing game as ever in these scenarios. Let's hope it is going to be a continuing trend. What we need to look and hope for is the current low in the Atlantic to keep digging further down in the meantime and to stay further west, in order to create more amplification to enable a steeper more S-N advection of the plume as opposed to SW-NE.

Marginal improvements again since this morning, with a very very slight shift west. This is such a knife edge at the moment. Last year we did see miracles however at around this time out, it got corrected back west enough to get the majority in the game! I hope it can happen this time too. A very close eye will be kept by me on this over the next couple of days. I was up for binning it completely this morning, but I have a glimmer of hope, especially for those in the likes of Kent

Hopefully we will see a decent August this time, or a decent pattern change come mid July.

As expected, a big shift east on the 06z run. SE and East Anglia would be the best spots now for anything interesting. Most of the real fun and games would remain the other side of the water

It does. I know it's a long way off and not quite in hi resolution territory yet, but with the added wind shear overlapping this incredible potential energy, and with the heat low modelled to be the ingredient that would erode the capping, I wouldn't rule out some potential rivalry for storm of the decade under that setup shown. Supercells on a true scale like 28/06/2012 would be a high possibility. I wont get carried away too soon yet however.

St Ives Cambridgeshire (more convective one!) or st Ives Cornwall? Also, OMG where has this came from!!! Only 4 days away!!!

Where was the 2nd one taken? Looks like one that I observed from Royston looking towards MK and Luton, which I'm sure was a +CG!

Looks good, but not quite a supercell. For a true supercell, there needs to be an adequate amount of wind shear aloft generally overlapping a very unstable environment, usually resulting in pea to golfball sized hail or in some cases, larger. Very frequent lightning activity and an associated mesocyclone where the tornado potential is at its greatest. Supercells in the northern hemisphere will also generally travel in the direction of S-N, SSW-NNE or SW-NE and take a right turn from approximately 10-30 degrees of the mean steering winds aloft (300-500 hpa). This however could be perceived as a supercell as the rotating winds around the centre of the low steer it anti clockwise, giving an image of rotation which can clearly be seen. Good video nevertheless!

Well done to those in the south getting a dosage of storms 12z has gone off on one again for storm porn!! A carbon copy of 28/06/12! I do hope the GFS is onto something here.

Off topic a little, but I wish I was in the states in Ohio! 350-400 strikes a minute on what looks like a dangerous storm over there.

Got a little video of that night storm on YouTube! But my battery ran out. Was a very scary storm indeed at its peak.

3rd July last year overnight was certainly marvellous here. Lincolnshire regularly gets storms from any direction except the northeast. It's just the coastlines suffer due to cool sea temps destroying the storms!

Yep. Was good while it lasted and had the local coffee shop evacuated due to flooding. But yes, a southerly, southwesterly or southeasterly will set up some loaded gun conditions around here, anything northerly or northeasterly and you can forget it!! Lol

Had a good one earlier this afternoon. Nothing on par with that beast you got yesterday though! North Sea crud has made it here now however and does a good job at killing storms! You know when that NE wind gets here it's game over under surface based conditions!

Cracking storm with a few close strikes!! Heavy hail and extreme rain now going on. What a day again!

A whole series of big cracks of thunder in the Spalding area! Lightning maps has only detected one strike, been 3 so far from an actual count!

Yeah. You really do know about it when it is a +ve lightning bolt! Been known to be windowbreakers in the past too. But it really is incredible to hear. I think it would be held responsible for why people really are scared of thunder haha. It's often a metallic crashing kind of bang too if you know what I mean. I hope I get one tomorrow thinking about it now!!