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East_England_Stormchaser91

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Everything posted by East_England_Stormchaser91

  1. East_England_Stormchaser91
    Wondering if that lot over the Celtic sea may be the precursor of what is to come?
  2. East_England_Stormchaser91
    Signs of it beginning to kick off over Dumfries and Galloway. Strikes becoming more frequent! William wallaces backside may well kick into gear soon
  3. East_England_Stormchaser91
    Loaded gun scenario there convective. Saw pretty much the same thing both on 3rd July and 16th July last year. I can tell you that these have been known predecessors to some proper humdingers!!
  4. East_England_Stormchaser91
    Lightning to the S of Ireland looks to be heading northeast towards Cornwall. Is this likely to be steered further North?
  5. East_England_Stormchaser91
    Mainland Spain, Arizona, parts of Australia and other arid regions experience dry storms quite often. They are quite spectacular. I think 1st July last year there was a few flashes from one over Northamptonshire, but then died shortly after. Hope we see some, but I think there's too much moisture in this setup.
  6. East_England_Stormchaser91
    All eyes on the bay of biscay. Was that even forecasted or could that be the warm front that's been appearing time after time on BBC?
  7. East_England_Stormchaser91
    Would love for a repeat of that day! Hands down one of the most spectacular displays of lightning in my lifetime on the late evening of 31/08/05. Arpege model is actually showing something nuts kicking off by holding the heat firm for Wednesday and temps in east Anglia rocketing to a staggering 35-36c, with a bow echo type feature developing over the Midlands heading north and east. Folks, this is going to be an interesting 36 hours!
  8. East_England_Stormchaser91
    Still going to stick with my prediction that I stated a day ago. Southern Wales into more of the midlands seeing a possible MCS. Noticed a very slight trend to the latest run to possibly kick things off further SE. BBC now stating 35c is possible over the N Home Counties into the southern Midlands, which would perhaps add more pressure on the capping further south more than maybe what the models are currently implying with a conservative 29-30c
  9. East_England_Stormchaser91
    I meant as in not sleeping will, not the storm lasting all night lol, I wish. And yes I'm right on the edge of the slight risk area.
  10. East_England_Stormchaser91
    All the best matey!! Gonna be a long night Tuesday that's for sure. An imminent all nighter I reckon.
  11. East_England_Stormchaser91
    Seeing what looks to be a line of towering cumulus over Lincs way! Something to keep an eye on this afternoon and into the evening.
  12. East_England_Stormchaser91
    if anything can get going east of the main risk, then it could be the most severe, the capping will no doubt be harder to break though, although if temperatures are being underestimated a degree or two, it could make a lot of difference. Northwest England up towards Newcastle area extending to SW Scotland at this stage look to be the most favoured areas.
  13. East_England_Stormchaser91
    Yes. Quite irritating to a meteorologically minded person! A bit dangerous in my liking if you ask me too, especially when it is a compulsory forecast to warn the public. Getting golfball sized hail and high lightning frequencies is a bit more than a thundery shower! Such things if possible should be clearly mentioned! Pretty sure that they failed to warn of it on the remarkable day of June 28th 2012 and only forecasted ''thundery showers''. A bit silly, given that they must've known full well of the ingredients early that day that such events were possible and did happen.
  14. East_England_Stormchaser91
    I myself going by my own predictions would say that destabilisation of the plume over Wales and SW England will lead to storms breaking out around just before midnight and then conduct into a possible MCS heading from Devon/Cornwall and Wales trundling NNE up towards Midlands and Lincs by dawn. Other parts of NW England into Scotland inc. IOM I think will see some elevated storms dotted around.
  15. East_England_Stormchaser91
    Do think it will happen. Rarely seen events that have materialised further west than what was forecasted. Usually the biggest and most potent fireworks happen on the eastern periphery of a system that is heading north and east. Last year and the year before, this is exactly what happened. The night of July 17th 2014 the trough actually hit around 200+ miles or so further east than what was expected, and that was on a forecast on 6 hours prior to the event.
  16. East_England_Stormchaser91
    looking at the 500hpa winds which is the steering winds for storms, it seems that they would have a more NE track as opposed to N?
  17. East_England_Stormchaser91
    Must say that Wednesday is looking like it could get exciting over this way as it stands. No doubt it will chop and change, but all the parameters seem to be there to my mind for some potential supercells. 100knts of DLS, temps touching 30c, 2000+J/kg CAPE / -8 LI and a trough for the trigger. The timing just needs to be right!
  18. East_England_Stormchaser91
    Certainly possible should there be some unbroken sunshine under the highest uppers. Wind direction is favourable too for the usual hotspots. I'd go for a high 33 maybe 34 at somewhere like Northolt or Heathrow area.
  19. East_England_Stormchaser91
    Ah fair do's mate. A terrible year would have to be 2011 I think. Hope we never see the like again. El Gordo was the biggest bust I think I ever had the misfortune of witnessing, and then we saw virtually nothing all summer after!
  20. East_England_Stormchaser91
    Certainly wasn't terrible! The majority saw some amazing storms with lightning frequencies higher than probably the past decade. On the contrary, whilst some people saw the same thing in 2014, I saw very little activity up here that year. Doesn't mean it was terrible!!
  21. East_England_Stormchaser91
    Amazing charts. But it's still 4 days away yet. If it is still showing after the weekend, then I will start believing. Impressive how far out west the 15c isotherm gets. That's a good sign regarding potential eastward shifts, as it leaves more room for error.
  22. East_England_Stormchaser91
    Massive swing in the right direction from the GFS. A stonker of a plume from Monday to late Wednesday! Main concern would be the nasty storms that would result. Substantial wind shear overlapping a very unstable environment. A close eye and bated breath will await each run from now on in!
  23. East_England_Stormchaser91
    Very flat jet stream is all I'm anticipating, flattening any attempt of a plume advecting northwards. Painful watching indeed.
  24. East_England_Stormchaser91
    Can't believe how this summer has gone from hero to zero on the convective front. Nothing but a snoozefest in the foreseeable to my eye.
  25. East_England_Stormchaser91
    Something amiss with the plume activity. Since that sun has gone blank, we aren't even seeing a sniff of any potential of a plume. Certainly nothing like last year anyway.
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