Panayiotis

Well its something from the east but definitely not a beast lol...

Heights building over UK which should topple over Scandi, undercut low and BFTE later on in the run? Dream chart viewing....

NB: With colder air establishing itself over the UK (a good +6 days of -5C or lower 850hPa temps), any sliding low would likely to produce snow as long as 850hPa temps are below 0c (yes only 0C)....this would be different if the cold air was only over the UK for say 24-48hours but with colder air already in situ and a continental feed, conditions should be fine for snowfall.

The flatter and more elongated low as shown on the ICON is much more favourable for snowfall compared to the ECM.

Hello all, Been lurking the last few months checking on the forum every few days, but its time to get a post up regarding the upcoming cold spell. Its a real excitement to see such great synoptics especially so early in the winter (something which has been lacking in recent years). We haven't had much luck with getting cold (and snowy) weather to the UK so it will be very interesting to see how this all pans out. To see this chart at 06h is something were not use to... Yellows and oranges over Greenland, a blocked Atlantic and low pressure over the Azores, what a sight. Cold air starting to flood south over the next 24 hours... At day 5, we see the heights start to diminish over Greenland and move towards Scandi and low pressure over Italy feeding a cold easterly across Europe. Over the UK, we have a slack flow (indicated by lack of isobars) which should allow for some very cold temperatures overnight especially over snow fields (could see -10c in favourable spots). Jet stream splitting with one arm heading NW-SE over France and other across the Azores, where we see the Atlantic low form. At this point we will start to see the models struggle (as they always do) with how the low interacts with the cold air over the UK/Europe. You can see how the GFS and ECM differ at 162hrs, heights over N Scandi more prevalent on the GFS with energy splitting 'cleaner' to our SW. It might be something to note that despite these changes at 162hrs, the two models both arrive with quite similar synoptics (for our locale) at 240hrs; renewed heights over Atlantic/S Greenland and low pressure to our south drawing in a cold easterly wind. On the macro scale, its also great to see the PV keeping on the 'right side' of the globe, and as long as it does we should see further opportunities for cold/extension of the cold further down the line. Seeing the models pick up these signals is a great sign for continued cold as we head into the 3rd week of December. Will post an update in a few weeks to see how we go, hopefully we would have seen some snow by then!

Hoping the clearing skies in southern England (line of M4 from Bristol to Essex) should start to give some solar heating which should trigger more organised/severe convection in those areas.

Won’t be surprised to see the really hot temperatures return with a pattern like this; low in the Atlantic driving warmer air from Spain/Africa. It’s a trend seen by a few of the models today for around 192hrs, will be interesting to see what they produce next few days…

If I ever saw a chart which could produce some fireworks it would be this one. Heat + instability =

Nice to see this prediction finally being shown in the models. Obviously we still have a few days left for things to go pear shaped but it’s looking promising…

Don’t think it’s a bad thing having low pressure to the SW/W; does give way to southerly winds if we can get HP building ahead/over Europe. A potential for a hot to very hot setup + convective thunderstorms (I.e plumes). At the end of the day we want high pressure over the UK not over the Azores. Interesting to see how this develops over the next few days ….

These tend to split with energy going east and another going west, will be very interesting to see what happens later..

Snowing here in Cardiff, very small flakes however

Yeah winds here in Cardiff very similar to Eunice

Strongest winds I’ve experienced in Cardiff, gusts shaking the house

Really quite windy here too, with the gusts shaking the house

Pretty extraordinary that the only places that show ‘red’ wind speeds across the globe are from Eunice and 2 hurricanes. earth :: a global map of wind, weather, and ocean conditions EARTH.NULLSCHOOL.NET See current wind, weather, ocean, and pollution conditions, as forecast by supercomputers, on an interactive animated map. Updated every three hours.

Growing concern that the Met might be missing a swathe of stronger winds across the midlands as Eunice pulls away. AROME showing the area where stronger gusts may occur and I do believe this needs watching with the upcoming runs ..

-4C to -6C 850hPa in that setup on the ECM can deliver snow for most of UK. Very cold for Scotland, possible for -20C over the snowfields.

From experience a forecasted/modelled west based -NAO is better than say a modelled direct northerly. What you generally see is an eastward movement of the pattern as we get closer to the event date.

Sorry it’s not on YouTube but here’s a photo of it. It was seen at 5:30am this morning

My first ever observation of a funnel cloud / water spout which formed over the Bristol Channel (looking SE from Cardiff) IMG_7158.MOV

Great structure of the thunderstorm to my NE

If we are to see cold return to the UK, I expect it would start with high pressure develop right over us; models signalling this towards the end of the month. I’m then looking for it to get undercut by the Atlantic propping it north towards Scandi or it retrogressing towards Greenland. Until we see pressure rise over us, I believe we are far away from a late chance for cold. Until then, we have quite a mild, stormy and unsettled week ahead with winds being the main concern.

With that last shower exiting Wales, think that marks our end to this cold spell and the end of seeing any decent chance of settling snow. Yes we could see some cold spells in a few weeks but seeing any disruptive snow is going to be very unlikely. This winter has been full of great synoptics-lots of blocking to our north but ultimately for the UK it has lead to only a decent cold spell right at the end of the winter, which failed to bring us any sustained and substantial snowfall. We did get one day of settling snow and few days of falling snow however. Now Looking forward to the spring warm up but we have a week of unsettled weather to get through first which could possibly bring some extreme gusts to coastal areas.

Looks like it headed way further east than expected. Snowing here most of the day but struggling to settle, we’re unfortunate here especially given that we had established cold over us all week! Again if it was night we would’ve done alright, it’s probably the reason why we did good a few weeks back although it wasn’t as cold.