Panayiotis

Fine powdery type snow falling now, lots of it but different to what was falling earlier (which was larger flakes but not as much). Starting to dust (like icing sugar) on most surfaces

Nice to see it fall and just instantly settle!

Snowing here too ! Yellow warning for snow updated at 7:30am for snow

It sure does look good, but the cold over Wales from around Swansea east can quickly deteriorate this front. Will be very curious to see how this pans out.

Models do have it intensifying when it gets over land so hopefully this happens when it gets here

I hope so too, what seemed like a good day for snow on Sat , is now starting to diminish with the Arome, GFS, GFS p , EURO4 all showing the front dying out like it did today, not the signals we wanted.

It will be a blink and miss snow event I believe. Similar to what we saw a few weeks ago

Most models have Wales under snowfall on Saturday. Today’s front was always forecast to make it to the SW before fizzling out. Saturday is our best chance to see a few cm before milder air pushes in on Sunday where any precipitation that gets to us will likely be rain.

I wonder if we get to see some unusual sized snowflakes if we get the precipitation this weekend? Given the marginality of the 850hPa I would suspect so...

Yeah ICON pushing the snow further inland Thursday into Friday giving a few cm for quite a few places across Wales. It then brings in the front from the west on Saturday and stalls it over the middle over Wales , dropping quite a bit of snow for the south. Would be an amazing end to this cold spell if it played out like it.

Shame everything fizzled out today but I guess the models were right with that as they didn’t have much interest. The ICON reminds me a bit of the red warning issued a few years back...

I think the front will fizzle out before it gets to Swansea. The SW could do good but will check all high-res models tomorrow and let you know.

Possibly something more organised as we start to get more of an easterly wind for parts of South Wales. Hoping the B.Channel can add some moisture to the flow

Yeah not a good start to the day, I remember a few days ago that the UKMO showed the high collapsing and now the 00z has unfortunately brought the idea back. The fact that its picked the signal back up is not great and from experience doesn’t normally revert towards the favoured solution I.e keeping the Scandi high with energy going underneath. What we can hope for is that the high collapses quickly leaving a slither of heights to the north which then energy can disrupt SE putting us back into the continental feed. I think the evolution is super dynamic and tough to predict so I doubt any of the models have a great idea of what’s going to happen post 120hrs

Agreed, as ever we need the UKMO to back the ECM evolution. Without it on board I remain sceptical.

Evidence?

Technically it hasnt happened. Don’t get too caught up, especially when it comes to the GFS. Start to get worried if the ECM or UKMO start pulling away from the idea

UKMO 144hrs very similar to the ECM 144hrs (UKMO slightly better with the low pressure over Italy). Given that, I’m confident the UKMO would go on and build the Scandi high like the ECM does.

Did you see the 00z UKMO? The high over Scandi was collapsing at 144hrs

Umm GFS likely to deliver the coldest run of the winter (and probably of the last few years). Trigger shortwave and everything in the Atlantic undercutting. Could we see the -20C 850hpa get to the UK?

As per my earlier post, I showed concern over the UKMO 00z. Well those worries have gone with the 12z and the UKMO is showing the much better scenario which is in line with the other models- the high remaining north over Scandi between 120-144hrs and the winds cutting back SW underneath. Here are the 00z vs the 12z:

I actually disagree here, looks like the high pressure is collapsing on the UKMO which runs the risk of the low pressure going over the top. Possible spanner but we need more runs and will be interesting to see how the ECM handles it.

A different look at some of the instruments available to us. Looking at the wind direction from the GEFS for Cardiff, we see no westerly influence from any of the members over the next few weeks! Quite remarkable and considering we had a reversal in the strat, it sure does seem like we are having it printed on our troposphere.

Caution must be applied with this new evolution however, the building blocks come between 120hrs and 144hrs and the UKMO looks different to the GEM and ECM at that timeframe. If it’s one model you want on board, its the UKMO, so important runs to follow regarding that model. Note: As stated in other posts by some on here, the GFS is the worst model when disrupting energy (in the correct way). If it’s by itself compared to the other models then it’s best to discard it. Get worried when the ECM and UKMO move towards it - very unlikely however!

At 216hrs we have an emerging trend, quite surprised both GEM and ECM showing something similar, with northern Scandi heights and the flow returning from the continent. If we get that undercut then it’s Beast from the East 2.0 ((from 2018), the forecast one next week is technically not one )