Panayiotis

Had a brilliant view from Cardiff of the storms over WSM !

Looks like EURO4 predicted these storms quite well although the timing is a bit off. Nice to see tparts of the UK getting those intense storms that we normally observe over Europe! Strange to see a day with lots of cloud cover and temps in the low 20s do so well in terms of convective activity!

A lot of flashes now to my east with this thunderstorms over the B.Channel

Normally in the UK, plumes are ended with destabilisation coming up from the south, to me this looks like destabilisation from the E which is a strange thing to see

Well, well, well a bit dissapointed about earlier, thought that we could’ve got some spectacular convective storms for the evening/afternoon especially given the forecast but it looks like these thunderstorms are saving the day from a complete bust! It was action like this I was expecting for the evening! Will be interning to see how sustained this becomes...

Positive signs from the satellite with the sunshine coming out behind the rain that has moved through the midlands. We really need that heating for things to get going. It’s this area where storms will most likely be developed and move NW given the CAPE...

Looks like another nice storm developing near you!

Can see the thunderstorms over the midlands all the way from Cardiff!

So the rain has just passed over me here in Cardiff, and is currently moving north, some thunderstorms near Swansea but nothing here. Are we expecting things to kick off again in a few hours?

So thunderstorms still failing to cross the Bristol Channel however conditions seem to be right here for convection and we have created some thunderstorms to the north with some rumbles of thunder heard

Such a shame we have the sea breeze off the Bristol Channel here in Cardiff, wouldve seen some lovely thunderstorms the past few days! Hoping today there is a bit more instability further up to hold the storms as they cross over.. Can anyone explain why the sea breeze is causing the thunderstorms to dissipate?

Looks like the increased CAPE over the Gloucester area is aiding the development and intensification of thunderstorms in that part of the UK, models showing the MUCAPE to increase over the midlands so I expect these t/storms to hold their intensity as they move north . Possible supercell here(?)

The high cloud coming in from the west has broken up allowing a bit more sun to break through to the SW. Looking at the satellite you can see how this sunshine is showing signs of further convection with clouds starting to tower from the south coast up to the welsh border. Will be interesting to see if this turns into something.. My bet is that this line of convection will move east, intensifying as it does (due to warmer air and more CAPE) and this is where the SE start to see signs of the forecasted thunderstorms.

My prediction for tonight, cells to merge in the red then move towards the UK. Some models show air destabilising later over the UK with the UK producing it’s own thunderstorms but looking at radar at the moment, I believe the storms will develop over the channel then head our way

Those cells moving away from the French coast should start to intensify given the CAPE in the surrounding areas, models do show some elevated CAPE later on extending over the south of UK, so hopefully these storms survive the channel and get to us with some intensity

When the least extreme chart is that above then I will be happy

Yep, big swing to blocking off that Atlantic compared to the 00z, the signal to increase pressure once again in this area has popped up...

Haven’t seen a GFS run like that in a long time (check my avatar! ) . What stands out to me is the re-amplification of the Atlantic/Greenland high ( the high that looks like a heart/fish tail) in both the ICON and GFS. There must be a strong signal being picked up by the models to increase pressure once again in this area. It’s this pressure rise that I’ll be looking out for in the GEM and ECM once they come out... (Scroll further down for photos)

Some sleet earlier mixed with the rain as well here in Cardiff

That pocket of heights to the E of Greenland is something that needs to be watched closely, if we can get that low leaving the ESB to drive heights northward we could easily see a linkup between the two leaving us in a very blocked pattern... eg ICON 12z

Key thing to note is: Lower heights to the north + low pressure near Iceland Azores high edging NE towards the UK Big Russian high UK weather will flop flop every run but at least the gfs isn’t showing a zonal pattern with low pressure systems hitting the UK

Undulating clouds, same here in Cardiff

Storm over Wales Lost a bit of its electrical activity

By the looks of things, the Peterborough area could get the highest recorded temperature this week, models consistently showing temps to be highest in that area and also the far SE corner