Captain Shortwave
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Everything posted by Captain Shortwave
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Well that's storm number 4 today (add to the 2 in January and 1 in February). Must admit it has been a little underwhelming here. On the other hand places west of here got hammered big time. -
Convective / storm Discussion - 22nd May 2014 onwards
Captain Shortwave replied to Liam J's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
well we got hit at work by the tail of the storm system. rubbish picture ahoy
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Morning, bright and breezy start here. Had some rain but nothing of particular interest. Level 1 estofex warning for the region today. Hopefully there will be some big home grown storms today.
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Nothing here yet, whilst there is rain on the way. There have been no real reports of anything further south apart from the initial rain which clipped the east coast. Time to call it a night. The window is open just in case that any storms do turn up
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The rain in East Anglia is starting to move more NNW instead of NNE now, the stuff behind might start to do the same. Typically my old home of Great Yarmouth looks to be in the bulls-eye position of the first wave.
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Some very intense rainfall (30-50mm/hour) heading for (guess where???)... The triangle of doom. Great Yarmouth looks like being repeatedly hammered. On the plus side the rain is starting to move more NNW now. Better signs for later.
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Looks like the South East (Kent/Sussex/EA) could be hit by that, can it pep up a little more? I think even I am in with a shout on that one.
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Looks like I will have to be wrong about something else then. On an unrelated note, there is definitely not a lynchmob coming for me right now due to lack of storms (away from the kent coast) All eyes on the triple point of that system, the precipitation looks more widespread so maybe more than just the east coast will get hit.
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Well that stuff looks like hitting the east coast of East Anglia too, typical Great Yarmouth is going to get hit
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Starting to properly cloud over here now. Been a decent day though the sun was very milky and weak this afternoon. Very intense rainfall is about to hit east Kent. Raintoday actually shows the rainfall intensifying over the channel. Good sign I think.
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Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.
Captain Shortwave replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The UKMO has it for me really, good consistency over the last few runs on the winds swinging easterly next week, this means that rain will try to push up from the continent and push north westwards. Just like the metoffice update. If we get any sunshine it will become quite warm. ECM looks very similar to the UKMO at day 5. The push of warm air seems to be not as good this time, mainly due to that shortwave lingering over northern Scotland. -
Sunny start to the day here, will we get some thunderstorms tonight? That is the big question.
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Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.
Captain Shortwave replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well good agreement on easterly winds setting up next week as high pressure stretches over the top of the UK 850s look rather warm as the heat from the east slowly trickles its way here With low pressure in charge over central/southern Europe, there could be some thundery rain pushing northwest into the UK at times too. -
Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.
Captain Shortwave replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Next week is shaping up to be very interesting as the heat in Eastern Europe tries to march westwards again. GFS showing temperatures next week back into the low 20s. Question is how far west can the warm 850s get. UKMO still looks the best solution with the best alignment of the Atlantic low, pushing heights north eastwards from the Azores The warmth would push further west here. All to play for really. Hopefully we can keep correcting the pattern westwards like the pub run has done now. -
June 2014 CET Forecasts
Captain Shortwave replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
With that ridge to the east of us looking to persist well into the summer season (going by the long rangers), this throws up a lot of possibilities as the pattern could become stuck in a rut (question is what rut will it be?). Given my feelings are that high pressure will build across the north of the UK during the last stages of May with low heights over southern Europe. I will punt for a well above average 16.1C. Just thinking that winds could be rather persistent between the south and the east this month. Simply put all my guesses whilst stating above average temperatures have simply not been ballsy enough (here comes a 18C+ CET month now) -
The rain tomorrow night is associated with a plume of very warm air moving northwards into Germany, the models have been slowly pushing the 8C isotherm further and further east, simply put..... it's going to hit Belgium like they always do
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Looking increasingly likely on a boom or bust scenario tomorrow night as very warm air pushes northwards and clips the South east Trouble is this could easily miss us and hit Belgium and Holland instead.
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Well the Belgium cell has managed to push far enough west to hit the East coast of Suffolk/Norfolk with raintoday showing torrential rain in Great Yarmouth at the moment. Typical
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Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.
Captain Shortwave replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
UKMO looks decent going forward Definite chance to get heights to build over the north of the UK and into Scandinavia setting up an increasingly warm easterly wind. The south would be more unsettled. GFS looks very messy with average temperatures. The Euro/Scandi ridge looks very strong though and looks unwilling to budge. A very weak Atlantic jet too so heights to the north of the UK would definitely be a possibility going forward. Edit - GEM also calling a cyclonic easterly next week Temperatures shown to be getting back into the 20s again, especially in southern areas. -
Turned cloudy here too, few spots of rain. Not exactly stormy to be honest.
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Just cloudy with a few spots of rain. All the intense stuff seems to be passing harmlessly up the north sea, after having a pint of Belgium lager The next batch looks very much like a Kent clipper to me.
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Morning all, that line of showery rain didn't deliver much apart from a few spots of rain. Hopefully there will be better later. Currently cloudy and humid with very little breeze.
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Well time for sleep I think, well try to anyway as it's 27C in my room Some signs of the rain heading more north instead of north west out of France now so maybe some places might get woken up later in the night.
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Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.
Captain Shortwave replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
There seem to be a trend of the winds swinging east/north easterly next week as high pressure starts to dominate across many parts of the pole with weak low heights setting up over southern Europe. At the moment it doesn't seem to affect our weather too much with temperatures near normal with showery bursts of rain at times. ECM GEM Looks very complex though and the Atlantic jet is virtually non existent. Anything could really happen to be honest. Though there is ensemble support for this evolution to a cyclonic easterly maintaining the showery theme, though eastern areas could experience more cloud at times. -
From the track of the storm I would say Southampton westwards all the way to lands End will get hit. Wales will likely get engulfed by the the storm entirely. I think it's another night under the stars, but if I am going to miss out, at least it's clear and warm.
