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Captain Shortwave

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Everything posted by Captain Shortwave

  1. Captain Shortwave
    Evening, weather was ok today, quite a lot of cloudy through the middle of the day, though nothing really came off apart from the odd spot of rain before skies clears later this afternoon. Chance of showers tomorrow and Tuesday though we really need a westerly vector to the wind to give us a change, easterly winds tend to not produce too many showers in this part of the world unless the convective conditions are perfect.
  2. Captain Shortwave
    That's why ensemble forecasting has become increasingly popular, especially as technology is improving as whilst operationals are still the best at picking out trends, they still tend to swing wildly after 7 days or so, ensembles are more consistent for the most part. Worth noting that the operationals are much more in line with the ensembles now with heights sitting just to the south west of the uk into week 2, no guarantees on a UK wide settled spell but certainly drier than average for most looks likely. ECM looks fine for the entire weekend 850s look decent from Sunday onwards so a recovery in temperatures would be in order. That high does look like it might drift to the east/north eat of the UK on this run.
  3. Captain Shortwave
    Well with the 06z coming out, it is becoming increasingly likely that the bank holiday weekend might be pretty decent, though temperatures looking rather depressed by having a cool airmass overhead. Low teens looks the likely outcome with frosts on Friday and Saturday night. Saturday might present a rather chilly day for the south east with quite a nagging north easterly and probably some patchy cloud too. Rest of the UK should be fine and Sunday looks fine with sunny spells countrywide. The only other questions will be on Monday and how close fronts get to the north of the UK. As for the week ahead, looks showery for the first half before rain pushes south in the later half of the week. Temperatures close or a little above average but becoming cooler from the north and possibly cold enough in the North on Thursday for wintry showers even to low levels, though the 850s mix out by Friday. So for those in the north who like the wintry stuff, Thursday looks your best bet.
  4. Captain Shortwave
    Morning, hazy sunshine in Yarmouth at the moment. Had a BBQ yesterday with loads of family relatives. Safe to say that it was an indoor event in the end
  5. Captain Shortwave
    The ECM op is more in line with its ensembles this morning with the Azores high building in on Friday and slowly slipping away south west, but maintaining its influence over most of the UK into the following week. The OP of previous days looks to have been too progressive and extreme with the evolution. GEM looks even more settled As does the GFS Its ensembles look not too shabby either. So fingers crossed on a good bank holiday weekend.
  6. Captain Shortwave
    awful day, just thick low cloud with occasional light rain and drizzle.
  7. Captain Shortwave
    Morning all, misty start here. Hopefully the north sea doesn't ruin storm chances today. The winds should swing more south easterly and then southerly later in the day so hopefully that will help.
  8. Captain Shortwave
    Well the models still keep the cold air spreading to all areas through Thursday into Friday. There are differences after this with the GEM building heights right over the UK, the ECM keeps core heights south of the UK but the UK remains dry. The GFS looks more unsettled and more progressive with the Atlantic compared to the rest.
  9. Captain Shortwave
    Metoffice pretty much saying what the models show, a cold front pushing very slowly south during next week but only clearing during Thursday for southern areas. They do mention more settle weather developing over the bank holiday weekend with temperatures recovering to average, which pretty much backs up the models too. Main uncertainty will be this cold front pushing south, and which places get unlucky and experience several cloudy and damp days under the cold front before the Scandi trough eventually wins out. One last thing I will say is that a couple of days back we were supposed to get cold weather by next Monday for which that isn't going to happen now. Given the timeframe of cold air arriving to most of the UK is 7 days away, I wouldn't treat it as a given.
  10. Captain Shortwave
    The trouble is the convective window for this northerly occurs on Thursday night, by Friday we already have the UK under high pressure building in from the Azores On Thursday the north might get some showers but the south will be under a cold front so just general rain there. Given the cool airmass I suspect sunshine amounts will be pretty high and allow temperatures to recover from near freezing to get to around 10-12C, but rising as we head through the weekend.
  11. Captain Shortwave
    The issue at this time of year is that despite cold looking 850s, the daytime temperatures will still reach double figures for many. Looks like a few frosty nights but that's all, the speed the models are trying to bring high pressure back in then convective potential looks limited. Still the bank holiday weekend could be pretty bright and sunny if a little chilly if the models are handling this half decently.
  12. Captain Shortwave
    Evening, nice day again with decent spells of sunshine and feeling pretty warm. The outlook looks quite warm until the middle of next week now and any cold weather will be short lived with high pressure potentially building back in for the following weekend. Tomorrow looks tasty, fingers crossed for some storms
  13. Captain Shortwave
    More delays on the cold snap with the models starting to agree on Thursday being the moment where cold air spreads south across the UK. By Friday it looks like high pressure will start to move back in from the west. As stated by a few others, we have quite a warm airmass to start next week, could be quite warm in places if there is any decent spells of sunshine.
  14. Captain Shortwave
    Still evidence of heights building close to the UK during week 2 as low heights clear away north eastwards. ECM still going for this too, but any details look sketchy as the evolution from this weekend onwards is still up in the air GEM also has heights building in around this timeframe too. So some kind of chilly arctic blast before conditions settle down again perhaps.
  15. Captain Shortwave
    Morning, ^ couldn't agree more It was cloudy to start here, but blue sky is appearing now so it should be another decent day.
  16. Captain Shortwave
    No point worrying at the moment, the models are placing low heights all over the place. Interesting to see one model delaying any cold weather until the end of next week whilst others bring it in by next Monday. Confidence is very low. Decent day today though the cloud has kind of spread out a bit leaving mostly cloudy skies. Still rather warm though.
  17. Captain Shortwave
    Very very complex set up developing this coming weekend as heights build in the Atlantic and into Southern Greenland. The confusion is on the strength of the jet and how much energy cuts through the ridge in the Atlantic. The UKMO has more push forcing the low affecting us this weekend to drift into Central Europe and the low heights moving south west from the Pole phase with the Atlantic low giving a milder solution (though a northerly would possibly happen later). The GFS phases this polar energy with the low over the UK this weekend and sets up a potent northerly plunge early next week. Very small margins give big differences even in the semi-reliable timeframe. After that there are signs of pressure rising during the first week of May as the next Atlantic low positions itself quite far south which in turn will encourage the Azores high to build northwards into Southern Europe. Though we are long way off from resolving that at the moment. Edit - To add more uncertainty, the GEM delays any cold plunge even further to the end of next week.
  18. Captain Shortwave
    Morning all. Nice bright start here. Looks like a pleasant day
  19. Captain Shortwave
    Evening, the sun came out eventually by mid-afternoon. Quite pleasant. Thanks for the kind words. The speech was rather low key but there were hints at wanting to expand our side of the business so fingers crossed.
  20. Captain Shortwave
    No running away from it, the 2nd half of the ECM run is very very poor with low pressure parked over the UK. Cool and wet, though you would hope that a lot of the rain would come from showers rather than longer spells of rain. This stalling low is a common feature on the model output, a correction west or east could give big differences. A correction east would bring cold conditions with showers in the east whilst a correction west could bring very warm southerlies and rain mostly in the west apart from some potential stormy imports. All to play for, looks like the northern hemisphere is about to enter summer mode with the polar low heights being blown into oblivion.
  21. Captain Shortwave
    Morning all, grey and drizzly here at the moment, should improve though. The big boss of the company that took the place I'm working at over is here today, so a little nervous about what plans they have for us and whether my temporary job might become permanent among other things. Hopefully this American firm wants to expand our little area and not asset strip us.
  22. Captain Shortwave
    Hmm there seems to be good consensus of heights building close to Greenland in the semi-reliable time frame, in fact I would say that it will happen. But will it bring cool or even cold weather? It all depends on the strength of this high and of course how quickly and effectively heights to our north east break down. ECM and GEM though with differences towards Greenland do offer falling heights and a developing Scandi trough. UKMO on the other hand shows a much more resilient high and much weaker heights to the north west. This would likely result in low heights in the Atlantic squeezing through and pushing north east towards the UK, but with more average conditions compared to the cool and wet conditions shown by other models.
  23. Captain Shortwave
    Evening all. Back in Saffron Walden now after a nice weekend. Friday and Saturday both decent with sunny spells if rather chilly. Sunday was dreadful, cold, breezy and damp before finally becoming wet and typically clearing by the evening. Today was lovely with unbroken sunshine in south Essex, really warm too. Though it did rain for most of the journey back here. Hope everyone has had a great Easter and got loads of chocolate
  24. Captain Shortwave
    Evening. Decent if cool day. Spent some time in lakeside shopping centre getting stuff for my girlfriend's family for tomorrow's Easter egg hunt. ECM looks gruesome going forward. Hope it's greenies high is way off the mark.
  25. Captain Shortwave
    Afternoon, it's turned cloudy now with a few spots of rain, though the sun does try to work it's way through the high level cloud. Friday and Saturday look decent though Sunday and Monday look to see rain trying to push up from the continent, still no certainty on the areas affected though.
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