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Captain Shortwave

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Everything posted by Captain Shortwave

  1. Captain Shortwave
    Morning, another bright morning, if a little cloudier than the past few days. Have a great day everyone, a 4 day weekend is almost here
  2. Captain Shortwave
    Afternoon, top notch day here, lots of glorious sunshine and pleasantly warm. Great post Tamara and echoes my feelings going forward and no surprise to see the GFS now showing heights remaining over Scandinavia with further ridge west from this and also support fro the Azores high. Putting us close to shallow low heights over the Central and southern continent but never looking very unsettled with rainfall more in the way of showers than anything else. The Atlantic looks mighty quiet, even more surprising considering the winter just gone.
  3. Captain Shortwave
    12z GFS.... what a surprise Pretty much with the other models in heights to the north east holding the Atlantic back So we have good consensus going forward now, some rain or showers at times but drier and brighter spells too. Temperatures close to normal but feeling pleasant in the sun and light winds. The ECM ens seem to think this could persist for some time with lower than normal heights over Europe and higher than normal heights to the north/north east. Though the overall pattern looks very slack. The Atlantic is looking to become very quiet during this period.
  4. Captain Shortwave
    Models at T144 ECM UKMO GEM GFS GFS is definitely the odd one out here, the other 3 models want heights north or north east of the UK with a shallow low near the UK trapped underneath the heights, whilst the GFS wants to return a westerly pattern to the UK. Given the set-up, I would feel that the GFS is wrong here as it is well know that is performs poorly in these set-ups.
  5. Captain Shortwave
    Morning all, another clear start here with a slight frost. Have a great day everyone
  6. Captain Shortwave
    Model output doesn't really suggest anything dramatically unsettled. More a complex and slack pattern with winds from an easterly quarter. Rain or showers at times with temperatures near average.
  7. Captain Shortwave
    ECM and GEM are virtually identical up to day 9, very strong agreement between the 2 operationals to build a very strong block to our north east. The UK gets stuck under some shallow low pressure systems at times. Both not keen on a return to full Atlantic domination. GFS on the other hand wants to bring the Atlantic back in. GEM GFS UKMO up to T144 looks similar to the GEM/ECM so the GFS is probably over-doing the Atlantic jet. Worth noting that the models in general have been doing this over the past week or so. Surface detail if the broad trend is correct will be difficult with fronts and disturbances meandering aimlessly in a slack and complex pattern.
  8. Captain Shortwave
    Evening, nice day, lots of sun again. May it continue
  9. Captain Shortwave
    Morning all, clear skies and a slight frost here this morning.
  10. Captain Shortwave
    Looks like the northern half of the UK should have at least the first 3 days of the Easter weekend dry. But must note that the south east in particular could see rain every day of the weekend as the GFS shows. UKMO on the other hand looks fine UK wide Friday until at least Sunday.
  11. Captain Shortwave
    Afternoon, really nice day here, pleasant with lots of sunshine. With the Easter weekend coming up, we have slight variances in the models. The UKMO looks pretty good though eastern coasts could be prone to cloud. GFS on the other hand sends low pressure on a magical mystery tour which brings rain for every single day of the Easter weekend. Lets hope it's got it wrong. GFS
  12. Captain Shortwave
    Morning all, sunny skies here this morning. Here's to a good week
  13. Captain Shortwave
    Well Friday and Saturday look pretty good with high pressure in charge. The question is what about Sunday and Monday, all models want some cold pooling to push westwards from the trough over south east Europe which phases with low heights west of Portugal. This all moves north to affect the UK. Unusual evolution and one which could be currently played wrongly by the models. At the moment there looks to be showers or longer spells of rain pushing north during the second half of the bank holiday weekend. But my confidence in this will be pretty low until this movement of cold air is resolved as I wouldn't be surprised to see it watered down or vanish all together. This would mean the high over Scandinavia would have a greater influence on our weather throughout this period. Just a hunch more than anything else at the moment and models may be right. We could very well be heading for another spell of slack south easterlies here.
  14. Captain Shortwave
    The strange thing about that spell between 2007 and last year was how often those poor summers were couple by very warm spells in May and September. The one thing I remember from my time at uni was the exam period at the end of May was always accompanied by a heatwave. Oddly last May was well below average (the first year since leaving uni). Not sure about this summer, but I wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't close to average. A couple of hot spells in a mainly showery westerly summer I think.
  15. Captain Shortwave
    Evening all, lovely day here today with lots of pleasant sunshine. 4 day week this week, looks like my drive to work and back will be in glorious sunshine most of the time.
  16. Captain Shortwave
    So it looks like the return of the Scandi high as we enter the Easter period, the surface detail is rather unknown as low pressure could still be close enough to the south or become more dominate with rain pushing across all areas. ECM ens look to most settled The high looks to dominate and keep most areas dry. GFS ens look to show a more pronounced area of low heights to the south which could bring rain at times.
  17. Captain Shortwave
    Evening. The sun came out eventually here, was cloudy but bright most of the day with lots of high level cloud. A tad chilly at times too. Lots of dry weather coming up over the coming week with lots of sunshine as high pressure will be close by or over us for most of the time.
  18. Captain Shortwave
    few last things from me. first the ecm ens are similar to the gfs in develop heights to the north east and low heights just west of the uk. this give the possibility of mixed and average conditions or maybe warmer and drier conditions if the high has more influence. the charts draztik posted show this rather nicely. lastly the metoffice mention warm conditions in the eadt of the uk with cooler conditions further west. supports the ensembles quite well that does.
  19. Captain Shortwave
    Morning all. Rather cloudy but bright here. Hopefully the sun will shine for Cambridge later
  20. Captain Shortwave
    And this morning they are all gone..... GFS Turns unsettled from the south, warm in the south so perhaps some thunderstorms possible??? UKMO High pressure building in, nothing cool and unsettled here. GEM Follows the UKMO but pushes on in forming a Scandi high ECM Similar to the 2 above. ECM ens from last night do not look too cool Neither do the GFS ens Where's the cold???
  21. Captain Shortwave
    I agree, nothing has changed..... the extended ensembles continue to go cold and continue to be wrong. I mean if they were right then March would have been a colder than average month and the first half of April likewise. No need to digress any further. The GFS continues to backtrack, whilst some may disagree, look at midweek now. The GFS now has the high in the same location the other models did a day ago. Very poor and frankly it's clearing heights far too quickly still in my opinion. UKMO is very consistent with it's output over the past couple of days. Heads up for Wednesday, could be a very warm day potentially. Especially over England.
  22. Captain Shortwave
    Afternoon, nice day after the early cloud cleared. Bring on the weekend, Also Wednseday next week could be rather barmy with a nice southerly flow
  23. Captain Shortwave
    Morning all Cloudy but dry here at the moment, hopefully things will improve during the day. Models really starting to pull away from the cold unsettled theme now. Looks rather warm midweek and no real cool down into the Easter weekend. Though details are still sketchy at the moment.
  24. Captain Shortwave
    And the GEM caves in and says no to any cooler and unsettled weather and only breaks things down by Easter Sunday Good Friday and Easter Saturday would be rather warm with temperatures into the low 20s in places. Cooler and more unsettled during the later part of the weekend but nothing more than a return to average(ish) westerlies. UKMO is similar to yesterdays and also says no to low pressure diving south east and bringing in a northerly. GFS whilst it still says yes to a northerly is beginning to show signs of amplifying the ridge over the UK into the beginning of next week (more akin to other models), this could be the start of a slow and painful backtrack. If the ECM sticks this morning, it will be very likely that all signs of the cold northerly by the end of next week will have disappeared.
  25. Captain Shortwave
    Unless of course the ECM is right and the cold outlook collapses into nothingness. Like the last few Must admit, you wouldn't bet again an ECM chart at 4 days out and frankly that's where some huge differences occur to the GFS.
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