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Captain Shortwave

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  1. Captain Shortwave
    Safe to say the ECM is very different to it's previous run Same can be said from the GEM with the potential prolonged spell of settled weather predicted in week 2 gone and replaced by a retrogressing high and a potential Easter arctic blast. The models are certainly playing around with a more amplified pattern, but little consistency on how things fall for us in the UK and where the amplified ridge ends up. Could be west of the UK (cold), over the UK (settled and pleasant with night frosts) or it could be east of us (very warm???)
  2. Captain Shortwave
    Morning all. Raining here. Reminds me of the winter just gone
  3. Captain Shortwave
    Wow, well I will make my chicken tikka sandwich in brown bread and sulk then Time to hit the hay I think, even black books (the tv show I'm watching) isn't keeping me away so time to sleep. Night all. PS - It's mild and cloudy here.
  4. Captain Shortwave
    One thing to take note of from the GFS ens is there is signs of high pressure being close by, building in during Friday and lasting throughout, especially in the South.
  5. Captain Shortwave
    Apart from a fleeting glimpse of the sun, today has been pretty gloomy. I must admit to being rather irked about the constant stream of coldie posts on the MAD thread which are based off one or two GFS low res runs, especially when the next run it vanishes and they dismiss that run for x, y or z reasons. It's over, lets move on to the summer please
  6. Captain Shortwave
    Only 2 of the last 6 GFS runs have shown a northerly in low resolution. Some people using the word trend, I use the phrase GFS FI No real evidence for anything remarkably away from average from what I've seen.
  7. Captain Shortwave
    Morning, rather cloudy but dry here. It could become rather warm if the sun does break through though.
  8. Captain Shortwave
    Actually the pub run last night did not go for a northerly Very different in fact. There does appear to be some thoughts on increasing the amplification of the pattern which is bringing these rather more extreme looking set-ups, but one must be cautious of the GFS over-expressing these in low resolution as can often be the case. Worth noting that even by day 10 the ECM and GEM are not going for anything close to this. ECM is keeping a mixed westerly flow with the south mostly dry but rain at times in the north. The GEM wants to push in a more robust area of heights which brings settled and pleasant weather for all of the UK in week 2.
  9. Captain Shortwave
    And the ECM control this morning had southerlies and a temperature anomaly approaching +10C in the south east and above average temperatures everywhere. Safe to say there is little confidence in the output for Easter though my gut suggests something close to average countrywide.
  10. Captain Shortwave
    So the two model forecasts seen today are a blowtorch southerly and a snowy northerly. I don't need to think anymore about it. Nothing really swinging away from near average conditions on the GFS ensembles even out to day 15. Given the other ensembles show similar to that time-frame I would expect the first half of April to come out drier and milder than average, but nothing extreme compared to the seasonal norm.
  11. Captain Shortwave
    Morning Sunny start here, pollution and haze gone. Good times, especially as I'm heading into London today
  12. Captain Shortwave
    Well the GFS has high pressure near or over the UK from day 4 Apart from the high shifting position and allowing some weak fronts come round the high, it's pretty settled. North has some rain at times and the south barely has any. ECM is similar, mean surface pressure remains above 1010mb for most of the UK from day 4, south driest and warmest with some rain at times for the north. Looks settled for the south and rainfall in the north will be more nuisance value than anything else. Overall a rather unspectacular spell coming up with average temperatures and variable amounts of sunshine. If the cloud breaks in any milder periods the temperatures could rise close to 20C, but more the low to mid-teens generally. In any clearer, cooler periods we could still get a touch of frost in sheltered areas. Edit - Rainfall charts show most of the UK (except Western Scotland) to be pretty much bone dry after the 8th April. That would suggest settled weather for most of the UK.
  13. Captain Shortwave
    Morning, grey and murky here this morning. Hopefully this and the pollution will clear later.
  14. Captain Shortwave
    Afternoon. Warm with some hazy sunshine here. Turned cloudier in the last hour so maybe something heading this way. Nothing on radar though.
  15. Captain Shortwave
    Decent day here, plenty of hazy sunshine and temperatures around 18C. It has turned cloudy now though.
  16. Captain Shortwave
    I think something has gone wrong with those 850s charts from the UKMO, The other models seem to agree with a mild air mass overhead with the UKMO looking similar in the pressure pattern.
  17. Captain Shortwave
    Good ensemble agreement on heights building during the middle of next week
  18. Captain Shortwave
    Classic ECM over-amplification in the Atlantic situation. Produces a flatter pattern upstream and the high latitude block at day 9/10 is replaced by a mid-latitude one from the start of week 2 on-wards. The other models and ensembles were always going for something drier and less cold than the ECM op (especially in the south) and it looks like they might be right. ECM is pretty much dry throughout in the south with most rainfall apart from the next couple of days being light and patchy at worst.
  19. Captain Shortwave
    ECM moving to a less unsettled outlook More in line with the other models now. All models wanting to bring high pressure back in at the start of week 2 Worth noting the GFS ens also back this idea up
  20. Captain Shortwave
    Looks like a brief spell of more unsettled weather at the beginning of next week, but into week 2 there are signs of heights building back in from the west in one or another. The GFS looks the mildest with a predominantly westerly flow whilst the ECM tries to build heights north of the UK. The GEM is between the two but ends similar to the GFS with heights building over the UK. GEM ECM from this morning but similar to yesterdays as well I get the feeling that we will see cooler weather from the middle of next week (maybe a brief northerly before conditions become more settled again). The ECM has overdone the amplification again I think.
  21. Captain Shortwave
    Gorgeous day here, no winds, plenty of sunshine and highs into the high teens. Just some fair weather cloud which bubbled up during the middle of the day. Looks like we have a couple more days before the weather starts to slide towards something more typical for the time of year.
  22. Captain Shortwave
    Morning, sunny skies here this morning
  23. Captain Shortwave
    That is yesterdays 12z run, something seems to be up this morning. The UKMO is out GEM is slowly trickling out too The others are nowhere to be seen
  24. Captain Shortwave
    Same here Clears skies in Saffron Walden now, hopefully there will be some sun and real warmth tomorrow. Night all
  25. Captain Shortwave
    Conversely the ECM is pretty dire, wet and windy Could get a northerly as the Azores high retrogresses but I think it would be completely toothless though.
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