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Captain Shortwave

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  1. Captain Shortwave
    Well the weekend looks nice, that's a start. Hopefully the trend by the ECM continues into tomorrow across all models and we get a warm and sunny Easter. Goodnight
  2. Captain Shortwave
    The recurring theme this Spring has been for any cold unsettled weather that has been forecast has fallen like a house of cards in the wind. Could the ECM being that far off the mark at even 4 days out. Also given the model today has steadily moved away from the cooler/unsettled trend, I would be very surprised if it had been led astray. Must add even though the UKMO does not agree with the ECM, it very much refuses do go in line with the American models. The morning suite will shed some more light I think. Very much still in the air.
  3. Captain Shortwave
    3394th post Nice day today, though the cloud bubbled up and spread out a lot this afternoon. Still pleasant though. ECM and UKMO are starting to edge away from the cooler/unsettled weather. In fact the ECM is quite settled and warm at times for us.
  4. Captain Shortwave
    ^ What's the point of it being 7-10C, grey, wet and cold. You need absolutely perfect synoptics to get some decent wintry weather at this time of year. All the models have tried to do is return us to pre-March weather which frankly I never want to see again Well this mornings ECM wasn't really buying cool and unsettled and the UKMO this evening doesn't look like heading that way too. Just the GFS and GEM going that way now.
  5. Captain Shortwave
    Err..... Well we have complete model disagreement at this time. ECM much drier and warmer than the rest.
  6. Captain Shortwave
    The difference between the GFS and UKMO are rather large here, the GFS wants to drop the trough east of the UK and bring in a northerly before the Azores high collapses over the UKMO brings a much stronger jet streak coming out of the States giving a flatter pattern, this would probably continue a generally average westerly flow and very much different from pretty much anything we have seen over recent suites. GEM follows the GFS with the cold end to next week but high pressure building over the top of the sinking low. Before a grotty northeasterly sets in
  7. Captain Shortwave
    Morning all. Bright and sunny start here again. Some hope from the ECM for the Easter weekend, actually doesn't look to bad, though it's far in FI still.
  8. Captain Shortwave
    Well the ECM perhaps sniffing out something different this morning. Isolated in a sense but quite of few gfs ens were going for something like this over the runs yesterday. Again though the lack of consistency at 6/7 days out is rather concerning. Models still struggling with this. In the end the ECM shows little rainfall in the south with pressure remaining fairly high, it becomes more unsettled the further north you go.
  9. Captain Shortwave
    Kind of predictable really, rain and wind arrives for the bank holiday (try something new perhaps weather ) One shred of hope is there are quite a handful of ensemble members which develop the trough much earlier on a weaker jet and give a very different outlook, Something like this for example. We will see, but if the models firm up on low pressure returning over the next 24 hours, then Easter looks like being one for the brollies and wellington boots.
  10. Captain Shortwave
    Yeah the weekend looks decent enough, if not the spectacular weekends experienced in March. Oh well, beggars can't be choosers. Cambridge will be nice in the sun
  11. Captain Shortwave
    Very poor inter-run consistency from the models at the moment. Really does come down to this. Where does the low go? The orange arrows show something similar to the GFS where the low drops south east towards Iberia with heights remaining to the east and building over the top of the sinking low resulting in unsettled conditions being rather brief. The black line is akin to the GEM where it takes the low over the top of our ridge and dives south east much later bringing cooler weather and the stronger jet allows very unsettled weather to develop. ECM is in between dropping the low through the UK. The poor consistency between runs should pretty much tell the level of confidence, fair to say there is all to play for and that no weather type can really be discounted at the moment.
  12. Captain Shortwave
    Hmm one difference from this afternoons runs so far is to develop a trough much earlier and further west than this mornings suite. UKMO Could go the same way here. The interest comes from that this earlier trough development will preserve heights to the east of the UK. Given the amplified pattern, you could cut off the low and sink it towards Iberia with high pressure building over the top, the GFS does this One thing is for sure, the models still don't have much of a clue on how to deal with where the mid latitude heights split and end up eventually. Edit - GEM is terrible, heavy persistent rain and westerly gales for the Easter weekend. Not keen
  13. Captain Shortwave
    Some consistency starting to show into week 2 now with heights slipping west allowing low pressure to dive into Northern and possibly Central Europe. ECM GFS GFS ens Not as bad, just a more mixed Bank holiday weekend, but concerning as there are some dire operationals appearing around the Easter period showing some quite unpleasant weather for many areas, GEM being the worst, ECM offering something more showery with the low further away and the GFS which looks more moderated in its evolution.
  14. Captain Shortwave
    Morning all Sunny start here again. Looks pretty dry until next week, though as said above it will not be spectacularly warm. Just pleasant with chilly nights.
  15. Captain Shortwave
    I didn't know that polar maritime air came up from the south? That trough throughout remains west of the UK. The models are trying to develop a trough around day 7/8 just west of the UK as the high over the UK splits, part retrogressing into the western Atlantic, the other going into Europe. How much goes each way could bring big differences in the surface conditions for the UK. if it all pulls west then you will end up with a northerly, likewise if it all goes east you could develop a deep Atlantic trough and very warm southerlies. Small changes in this will cause big changes down the line and potentially over Easter. I would rule out calling conditions unsettled as we could quite easily end up with a halfway house and a flat westerly jet with a mid latitude ridge across the Atlantic into Europe giving rather average conditions.
  16. Captain Shortwave
    Sunny start here as well
  17. Captain Shortwave
    Low pressure west of Portugal will need watching over the next few runs. Very interesting little feature. Possible Spanish plume set up and even at this time of year there could be some serious warmth pumped northwards towards the UK. Both the GFS and ECM sniffing this now. A lot of warmth bottling up the other side of the English channel. Mid twenties widespread. Would not take much to get the warmth to reach the UK. FI then brings a cold snap almost immediately. The amplified pattern sending a lot of warmth and possible cold air our way. Interesting situation approaching the Easter weekend.
  18. Captain Shortwave
    This was from this afternoons GFS, but I think this sums up the prize of a proper southerly 25C appearing already over Northern France, yikes, it was like the end of June last year when that happened Oh yeah this definitely counts as a warm ramp... or in short a tease
  19. Captain Shortwave
    Whilst a lot of talk has been about cooler and more unsettled weather on the MAD thread, just something to keep an eye on next week. GFS at day 8 ECM for the same time Now this is an interesting set up. Now if we can get a decent chunk of that low in the Atlantic to dive south toward Portugal we might be able to suck up some very warm air from Africa. It could all change by tomorrow considering the complexities of this set up, double ridges like this are always a pain to model as core heights can shift wildly in the output. But if something like this could happen, then we could possibly see temperatures getting well into the twenties with a decent southerly and plenty of sunshine. Another thing to bear in mind is that the height over us could quickly retrogress westwards, being sucked in by the high over the Eastern seaboard, this could set up another scenario in Easter, much colder and unsettled. GEM shows this developing Low ready to dive down the north sea here as heights quickly shift into the Northern Atlantic. Plenty to play for for fans of all weather types. With even the ensembles being rather erratic then I think this will take a good few days to resolve and start to show what the Easter weekend could throw up.
  20. Captain Shortwave
    Chucking it down here now.
  21. Captain Shortwave
    Whilst there is rain still grazing the north of the coutry, even the ECM is slowly starting to back a dry and fine weekend for many And wanting to extend it into next week.
  22. Captain Shortwave
    Trouble is over the last month, high pressure hasn't exactly been elusive Only a few days ago the temperatures were approaching 20C down here, those same days where the models were predicting very cold northerlies and easterlies at 8-10 days out. Hence like for most of the winter my confidence in anything cold approaching our shores is very low. GFS ens are about as erratic as the operationals but I would love to take the day 8 mean here If the high builds across us and into Europe, temperatures could become very warm next week. Of course the high could retrogress westwards and allow cooler and more unsettled weather to gain a foothold. Also that double ridge shape over our part of the world, doesn't exactly give me much confidence in the models. They were awful at handling these last year.
  23. Captain Shortwave
    GEM looks pretty decent too. Could be another pleasant spell of weather developing by the weekend into next week.
  24. Captain Shortwave
    Afternoon, been cloudy and occasionally damp here today. The weekend looks potentially quite good according to the models at the moment and the GFS is starting to hint at some very warm weather again.
  25. Captain Shortwave
    Hmm big changes today really, the GFS really wanting to build the high in much more strongly this coming weekend and even begins to transfer it towards Scandinavia setting up a warm to very warm south/southeasterly The UKMO looks similar in wanting to start to push the high over the UK and with a developing trough in the Atlantic, then the high would also try and push eastwards into Central/northern Europe. Classic GFS low resolution, did it suddenly decide it's November again Also might add that day 8 chart on the GFS shows the +12 isotherm getting into South-west England.... toasty
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