Captain Shortwave

Well I wasn't expecting this from the GFS, a shift west Sunday and Monday would be warm, especially in Eastern areas if this came off. Given how small shifts west or east can greatly effect the surface conditions, getting anything beyond Saturday still looks to be difficult. In the more reliable timeframe, some talk from the metoffice/BBC about showers on Saturday, GFS showing some decent cape for the late afternoon. Could get some decent storms. There is also a risk of isolated showers/storms on Friday as well though lower than Saturday. Interestingly the NAVGEM also corrects west.

Afternoon, plenty of showers around this area today, quite potent too with a heavy downpour passing through Saffron Walden a few minutes ago.

Both the GFS and UKMO eventually centre the low over Ireland next week. Meaning the warm summery conditions are just over the other side of the north sea. Standard Considering the set up going forward, you can't rule out the chance of warmer air trying to push in from the continent with thundery rain in tow if that did happen. Otherwise it is a fairly slack showery south/south westerly flow with temperatures around average. GEM on the other hand Still trying to bring warmer and more humid conditions next week Decent 850s

Morning all quite cloudy to start here today, though it should brighten up. We have a northerly flow today so no surprises that central areas are favourite to see some thunderstorm potential Though again it isn't that inspiring. After today the weather looks mostly dry until at least Sunday. Though the trend for the dry spell to continue into next week has been put on ice this morning. Have a good day everyone.

I was going to write a rant about the GFS and it's poor handling of blocks to the north east of the UK. Unfortunately this mornings ECM happened. Nice consistency ECM (someone give the computer a kick)

I think there is a chance here, the momentum seems to be westward corrections. Hopefully it will continue tomorrow, the GEM operational this afternoon was a cracker bringing very warm conditions to most of Europe including the UK. Goodnight all and a great post as always Tamara

First heat ramp of the year I think Temperatures pushing towards 30C in a hot south easterly flow.

That is interesting, the GEM if anything is more bullish on strong heights to the north east of the UK with temperatures climbing towards the mid-twenties by Sunday and into next week. The cold front barely grazes the north west over the weekend. ECM ens well..... Sunday looks alright and better than the GFS But again low pressure sits just west or over the western half of the UK. Then again is the mean trustworthy here as slight adjustments west or east could bring a drastic change in surface conditions.

ECM looks a lot better for the UK on Sunday. By the start of the week the low is moving towards the Bay of Biscay. Interesting..........

Just to show the change in one GFS run here is the day 5 mean from the 12z Previous run A much stronger bridge between the Azores and Russian anticyclones, this makes the trough drop further west. We need this initial push of heights from the Azores high to be a s strong as possible to get the trough as far west as we can.

Well the showers successfully evaded Saffron Walden today, even with line of torrential rain showing up on the radar earlier provided nothing here

The GFS has finally smelled the coffee and is dropping the trough west of the UK So now it's a question of how close to the UK will the low be, the further west it is, the drier and warmer it will be. UKMO Agreement on a breakdown on Sunday with a cold front pushing south east, though the south east of England could see another fine and warm day. GFS suggesting Saturday to be the warmest day with a high of 23C across central/southern England

Morning all. Cloudy start here and quite cool. Would like the cloud to shift to allow some showers to get going.

A lot of differences between the models even at day 6 GFS UKMO GEM GFS again places low pressure over the UK, the GEM keeps most of the UK dry and at times very warm throughout the run with heights to the north east and a south easterly flow.

Unlike you I must say I have some real doubts about the GFS on this one, this could a case where the GFS op is wrong and the ensembles follow it like sheep, only to change drastically in 1 or 2 runs. ECM coming out and again the trough ends up west of the UK If this came off it would be a fine and warm weekend for most of the UK with cloud and rain for the north west.

UKMO looks OK to me, looks like the trough will drop west of the UK, though it does look a little flatter than the ECM/GEM this morning so maybe some rain for the north west and a more south westerly flow, but I suspect next weekend would be pretty decent for England and Wales based off that. GFS in my view looks rather lost. GEM still calling Scandi high in a weeks time Rain trying to get into the west of the UK. Interesting to see the GEM pull another end of run plume event Only another 9 days until it verifies

Afternoon, rather cloudy with a few light showers. Not a great day.

I do get the feeling that the GFS evolution is too clean and simple, this also reflected in the ensembles that again might be making this too clean. I have a suspicion that we will end up in a southerly flow in week 2, how warm it might be depends on how far west the trough is. Close to the low it will be pretty average temperature wise, if it continues to move west then it could become very warm. Worth noting the UKMO would possibly show the same thing going beyond day 6. Out of the operationals, the GFS is very much on its own.

The GEM is first to place the trough far enough west to bring much warmer weather for the UK. 850s of up to 14C in this plume, temperatures would reach the mid/high 20s if this was pulled off. Still the unlikely solution but shows what a relatively small correction does. GFS still going for retrogression GFS still the most progressive with this and has the trough the furthest east. Edit - ECM also further west Certainly drier and warmer than previous runs.

Evening all. A few showers but nothing drastic. Had more thunderstorms during the winter than we have had in Spring so far. heh. What did I just write in the MAD thread, oh man, has it come to that

Taking a look at the 850s, I suspect to get snow in the upcoming weeks would involve the earth being hit by a meteor. Struggling to get 850s below -12C over the north pole, let alone anywhere near us.

To be honest whilst the ensemble means looks bad, only a couple of hundred mile shift westwards and suddenly a thoroughly wet and miserable pattern will become a warm and showery southerly. At this far out there is still a lot that can change, first of all if the high is more reluctant to clear than first thought, and of course the Russian high could influence our weather from time to time. Later on there are signs of the Atlantic high retrogressing yet again in response to heights building over the central states. This could allow things to relax and build heights more generally over Europe. Worth a watch. I wouldn't write the rest of May off yet, far from it.

GFS still going for retrogression Still looks decent until next Sunday when it would turn cooler and more unsettled. UKMO Definitely more of a push north east from the Azores high

Morning all. Rain cleared a little while ago, some threatening clouds already. Fingers crossed on some thunderstorms Actually there has just been a heavy shower

Still looks like the High over the Eastern seaboard will win the battle and by default place us close to low pressure as it sinks south east towards Europe. We really need more of a push north east from the Azores high to extend any dry and warm spell beyond the start of next weekend.