Captain Shortwave

Beautiful day today with temperatures widely hitting the 24-25C mark. Just a little fair weather cloud and some cirrus, but nothing particularly threatening.

The models keep pressure high to the east of the UK with pressure slowly rising from the south as the amplified pattern in the Atlantic relaxes. Probably a north/south split with average conditions would be my bet beyond this coming week. Though with the high over Europe and Scandinavia, then there is every chances of developing drier and warmer weather at times.

Hmm Seems like there are signs of high pressure trying to rebuild to the north/north east of the UK. The GEM showed a similar solution this morning. GFS ensembles show heights rising in that locale too but later on during week 2. So possibly a slack unsettled spell following by the pattern settling down perhaps. No guarantees though.

23c in London now. 25c should be a breeze. Could get close to 80f under clear skies

Morning. Sunny and warm here. Looks like 25c should be possible today. Tomorrow could hit 80F if we see enough sunshine. Calling a thundery breakdown on Thursday. The set up looks better to me, just a question of whether we can pull the plume far enough west.

In the end the cold air dropping into the Atlantic was just too strong and prevented the low being cut off to our south west. This pretty much allows the low to eventually lift out in due course and makes the euro/scandi ridge less favourable to back westwards. Though at the moment I think looking beyond the end of the week still looks dodgy in terms of confidence. There is still a plume event on Thursday which still clips the eastern side of the uk (models all quite close on this). So definitely a chance of some interesting weather that day in terms of possible thundery rain. It does look like turning fresher on Friday.

Second this.

Mid level cloud gone now. Some nice towering cumulus forming inland here by the Thames estuary.

Cloud bubbling up nicely inland round here. Towers already forming. Btw I'm in Rayleigh near the Thames estuary and not saffron walden

Again a large variety in surface conditions next week. ECM showing a classic plume scenario on Thursday with 850s of 20c getting into the Low Countries with the 12c isotherm clipping the east coast of the uk. Couple that with low heights pushing north/north west this could very well go bang. All the models differ in surface conditions by this point so little confidence but it is interesting to see it crop up. Beyond this and well into FI fun the ECM builds a strong scandi high bringing a warm weekend, perhaps very warm in the south east. Also notice the thundery low developing over Western France. Could go bang again. Edit - wow that day 10 chart. Victory for the euro/scandi block. If that chart verified then we would be looking at the first heat wave of the year. That output is definitely a banker. Apologies for the lack of charts as I'm posting on an iPad and have no idea how to post charts on this.

Morning all. Beautiful start to the day here. Weekend looks good with plenty of warm sunshine. I'm sorry to hear about your loss alixzandra. Losing a parent is one of the hardest things to go through, especially if you were very close. From your posts it seems that you have a lot of fond memories and it's those good times which mean that they are never really gone as they live on inside us. Hope you and your family are ok.

Hmm next weekend is worth keeping an eye on. I think there is potential for something even warmer than what we are currently experiencing. That ridge to the east does show signs of trying to assert itself more by next weekend. We could get a very warm or even hot southerly going if the ridge is close enough and the flow aligns nicely.

Again the question is are the ensembles too far east again? That euro/Scandinavia ridge is holding firm even to day 10. I would be surprised if we didn't get another surge of very air hitting the uk. The end of July 2013 comes to mind. Similar pattern with low heights west/south west of the uk and a strong ridge to the east. It took over 10 days to fully breakdown and return us to Atlantic westerlies with the hottest day since 2006 being recorded during that spell. Something similar could happen here as even the mean shows this long wave pattern near enough stuck in place for several days. ECM on its own and consistent with its evolution of the cut off low. Similar to the GEM and it's sharper and more west based solution for this weekend into next week. It was an outlier, but it was very close to the mark.

A lot of uncertainty for next week still. Monday and Tuesday looks warm with rain around. Beyond that, most models try and clear the warmest air away on Wednesday and try to clear some of the low heights away allowing the Azores high to build in from the west. This would bring a cooler but mostly dry weekend (GEM/GFS do this). The ECM is the odd one out for midweek with a stronger ridge bridging over the top of the cut off low. This means the warmer spell lasts until Thursday and the pattern allows a re-load of warm/thundery conditions to move northwards over the bank holiday weekend. GEM

I think for storm lovers I do think Monday could be our best chance. Definite chance for homegrown showers during the day along the decaying cold front, plus very promising signs over in France. There could be some big storms developing there which should be steered northwards to perhaps hit the UK overnight into Tuesday.

Evening all, nice day today, just a little fair weather cloud, in fact it turned out better than forecast in my opinion. Looks to be even warmer over the next couple of days, maybe the 25C mark might be breached

It does look wet next week with spells of rain and also showers (both home grown and imports from France). Though I do get the feeling that it could be very hit and miss with somewhere getting a few inches whilst an area 20 miles down the road might see no rain whatsoever. Looks warm until Thursday where there might be a more organised band of rain pushing northwards to introduce fresher and more average conditions. Monday-Wednesday look the best bet for home grown storms, though there may be some isolated ones on Saturday in the south east generated by the high temperatures. Any further sharpening of that trough (and subsequent westward corrections) would be ideal to get some more heat into the mix next week.

Morning all, lovely sunny start here Oh dear, here we go again. The highest forecast temperature I have seen is 24C in London this weekend.

ECM looks decent this morning, quite similar to the GEM Turning very warm Tuesday and Wednesday as another pulse of warm air moves north ECM is making a decent attempt to cut the low off later on. Can it fully remove the cold air source feeding that low and sink it southwards to bring drier weather? Shame the ECM declines the Scandi block in this run which brings us into a more seasonable west/south westerly set up by the end of the run. If it had kept the block then we might have had a chance.

Probably not for the start of the week as the formation of the trough has been slowly edging west. Just a question of whether the warm air can hang on into next week. On the other hand when the low get ejected back into the jetstream, then it will probably go balls up

No worries, we still can't fathom next Monday, let alone 5/6 days later Still all output wants to try and let low pressure escape next week from its prison near the Bay of Biscay. Still think either a cut off low or perhaps further pulses of warm air could still happen and bring something warmer and drier perhaps. One last thing, had a look at the Netweather long range forecast, interesting read and it looks like our summer pattern could be setting up next week. Again possible signs that persistent and repeating ridges in one area of the northern hemisphere. This time being Scandinavia with low heights to the south west of the UK. Interesting.......

Still a lot of runs needed until we get even next Monday right. very tight situation here. Still questions on how far south the low will go and hence how warm the flow will be into the UK. The next is what happens to that low? One thing I will say is with the Russian/Scandi block trying to push westwards again next week, I'm surprised no model has tried to link the high with the Amplified Atlantic ridge and fully cut off the low. That outcome is worth watching to see if it crops up in the next day or so.

I think the nail fell out last night Decent agreement on trying to get low heights south west of the UK, the Euros going for low pressure close to South west England whilst the American models have the low further south in the Bay of Biscay. All output suggests warm weather for the start of next week with temperatures in the low/mid twenties. Question is how unsettled will conditions be. Mean 850 temperatures for my area have gone from +1/2 to +8 in 12 hours. Enough said really. I must add kudos to the GEM, it never really backed down from this scenario (if of course this is the right solution)

Looks like the end of any convective potential for a couple of days, though there is the chance of showers breaking out on Friday and Saturday, though isolated. Still there could be some storms around with the pub run showing some impressive Cape values. Otherwise the weather looks decent until Sunday, then I still don't know what will happen. A lot of talk about the pattern being nailed, but the GFS has just produced the warmest and driest run yet for next week. So I think there will be further swings in fortune between and warm continental flow and a cooler and more unsettled Atlantic flow. Goodnight everyone.

Heads up for Saturday, GFS showing some decent potential over Central/Southern England Given temperatures of 22/23C we could see some decent convection and possible thunderstorms.