Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

Captain Shortwave

Model Forum Host
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    12,546

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    46

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Captain Shortwave

  1. Captain Shortwave
    Ha standard Been cloudy but warm all day here, just a little milky sunshine from time to time.
  2. Captain Shortwave
    Well the models are churning out now, lets see what the following week offers UKMO going for a traditional west/south westerly pattern GFS has the high a little further north so more areas will be dry Again if the low in the Atlantic gets enough time it could pull some very warm air up from north Africa Another plume possible next week if we are lucky, this time north eastern areas could get some very warm weather with winds from the South west as opposed to the south east this week.
  3. Captain Shortwave
    Evening, a warm and bright day here, though it did cloud over during the afternoon. Looks like being warm throughout this week with hopefully some thundery action.
  4. Captain Shortwave
    Agreed, even the GFS does actually Warm again on Thursday as most days will be this week. There will be quite a lot of high cloud and some rain and showers around as fronts rotate around the low to our south west. Will be very pleasant for many and could produce some fireworks. I do feel bad for the north east as this is a terrible setup for them with low cloud and single figure maxima. Beyond the working week we do see the Azores high try to build northwards, of course at this point we cannot tell how far north this will get but from the ensembles That looks quite good ECM Again the south looks dry and warm, but some rain for the north. Things will depend on how deep the Atlantic trough is and how much this will force the Azores high northwards. That aside, for a little fun lets see what the GEM could throw up for us I see the 20C isotherm is trying to reach Gibraltar already and all that warmth would be coming our way. If only it wasn't an FI chart
  5. Captain Shortwave
    Evening, nice day (if a rather milky sky). Looks like a good weekend with temperatures pushing yet again towards the 20C mark. Legoland is going to be a blast tomorrow
  6. Captain Shortwave
    Given the recent trends and verification of these models (all went cold for this weekend/next week) in the updates last week. Perhaps suggesting that like many of the shorter term models that they were over expressing heights to our north and pulling it too far west as opposed to reality where heights end up to our north east. Of course we could see heights break down and a westerly flow return into April (beyond the first couple of days) which could pull things back to average or just below. The models are beginning to grasp a robust Scandi high formation with further support from the Azores high into week 2, shunting low pressure up the western side of the UK and into Northern Scandinavia. This would place the UK under dry and pleasant conditions with any rain reserved for the west at first and then more likely the north west of the UK. GEM is very warm for the time of year in the day 8-10 range.
  7. Captain Shortwave
    Fog has cleared here. Now got some hazy sunshine. Have a good Friday everyone
  8. Captain Shortwave
    Morning all, early start as I have to head down to Benfleet after work so I decided to fill the car up this morning to avoid the hassle during rush hour. A little frosty and foggy here, though the sun is trying to fight through. Looks like a warmer day today and then properly warm by the weekend.
  9. Captain Shortwave
    It's made landfall on the Suffolk coast now. Good luck to those in the north of the region.
  10. Captain Shortwave
    Thunder reported by people I know on FB at Southwold
  11. Captain Shortwave
    It's heading straight for the triangle.... flaming typical
  12. Captain Shortwave
    ECM very much backing the UKMO and it's own run this morning It could becoming very warm for the time of year in central areas ahead of a front pushing up from the south/south west GFS still wants to push low pressure into the Med during the mid-range whilst the GEM I have discarded as it looks out of sync with it's evolution in the day 5-8 range (rogue run at the moment)
  13. Captain Shortwave
    You can put me down for Saffron Walden (Essex) please
  14. Captain Shortwave
    Morning all. The car is a bit icy this morning, but it's a dry and sunny start to the day here. Good chance for some decent showers today by the looks of it.
  15. Captain Shortwave
    Personally I'm seeing April as being an average month temperature wise, but drier than average. I think easterly winds will be common this month, but no real arctic blast with heights persisting to our north/north east and low pressure remaining to our south west. Just a few weak fronts, sunshine and temperatures will probably be dependent on how cloudy the flow is. Shame this set up didn't happen either during mid-winter (we would be currently being buried in snow), or summer where we could see a lot of warm/hot sunny weather and some thundery downpours due to that low south west of the UK. Oh well, beggars can't be choosers
  16. Captain Shortwave
    Just to fill in the gaps from earlier, the ECM op for week 2 shows a Scandi high Unsettled for the South, 850s slightly above average though the wind direction may temper temperatures, especially in the east. Pretty much ties in with the metoffice and not far off in my view from what we will see. ECM ens shows a weak upper ridges over or just to the east of the UK with lower heights in the Atlantic This would not support anything particularly cold going forward. GFS ens the same, temperatures fluctuating close to average with winds between the south and east.
  17. Captain Shortwave
    going for average but edging slightly above, 9.2C April will be one to forget for areas near the north sea. But the west will be warmer than average with east/south easterlies dominating. Also would say the month will be drier than average for most away from the south west.
  18. Captain Shortwave
    At day 7, the ECM is sinking those heights a little, so probably week 2 would return a warmer south easterly flow, this is backed by the GEM and GFS ens (GFS op does something but it's end game is skewed by low resolution) There is no output tonight which shows a retrogression followed by robust Greenland heights. All of them want to allow the winds to back to a cooler easterly before veering them back to a warmer flow. Given the recent metoffice updates, I think the pattern could be locked in for a while with heights north/north east of the UK and low heights to the south west giving average conditions for the south west with rain at times, other areas will be drier than normal. The west/north west will do well out of this along with the south east at times if the sea track short. I'm afraid the north east of the UK could be pretty short changed here with frequent spells of low cloud and drizzle.
  19. Captain Shortwave
    Afternoon all Err..... I don't quite know what to say.. I SAW SNOW FALLING TODAY!!! It was only for half an hour and was only wet but it still counts. That looks like my lot though as temperature set to rise and approach 20C by Sunday. Snow to early summer warmth in a couple of days. March you have succeeded again in providing a decent month of weather. PS - Bye bye Avatar
  20. Captain Shortwave
    Evening, the flip side of the weather coin to bluebreezer, the weather was rather nice today, especially during the afternoon with some sunny spells. A chilly wind mind you. Could be some beefy showers over the next couple of days which could contain some decent thunder and hail. The chill should ease over the weekend and could possibly become warm again next week. Unless the GEM is right and we head into the freezer.
  21. Captain Shortwave
    ECM shows temperatures recovering over the weekend and becoming warm next week as winds slowly veer round from the east to eventually settle between the south and south west. There is a pool of very warm air over Africa which could head our way if things fell the right way. There is a weak surface high over Germany which forms after the high to our north collaspes (this also stops any cold coming our way). The very warm air stops over Central France, but a stronger feature to our east could potentially see temperatures rise into the low twenties. Conversely the GEM shows the cold side of the coin A large pool of cold unstable air moves south west which forces the high to retrogress and you get a pretty much perfect alignment for cold air to move towards us. Problem for me is the movement of that cold air. I just can't see it panning out that way and I favour a more south easterly flow. Both the ECM and GFS are showing a breakdown to a more conventional westerly flow but for the time being I think this is too progressive and any breakdown would be slower.
  22. Captain Shortwave
    Well the ECM this morning backs away from anything really cold GFS GEM A more mild south easterly seems to be the offering here GFS ens similar Looks too progressive in a breakdown from the west though. Given the output I will say that the chances of the cold air and a proper trough developing over Scandinavia is becoming increasingly unlikely, ore likely we will have heights near that region with a weak euro-ridge extending to the north of the UK holding the Atlantic systems to our west/south west for the time being.
  23. Captain Shortwave
    Morning all. A bit damp but some brightness here, hopefully this rain will clear soon. Further ahead, looks like any proper cold weather is becoming less and less likely with the ECM now showing more mild south-easterlies as opposed to trying to bring in cold arctic air.
  24. Captain Shortwave
    Morning, the car is iced up this morning, just a sharp frost. This coming week looks quite cool and mixed with some rain at times and a chilly easterly wind from midweek.
  25. Captain Shortwave
    The GFS seems keen on keeping a ridge over the Italy area which is also pushing north west towards Greenland, this could be a problem for cold lovers if this remains as it holds the low near the Azores and the end game is heights splitting and the low over the Azores and the Scandi trough linking up and warm and wet conditions developing as warm and cold air get squeezed towards each other near the UK. GFS and ECM ens show a real difference, one showing cold and the other is warm.
×
×
  • Create New...