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Captain Shortwave

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  1. Captain Shortwave
    Evening all. Another lovely pleasant day today after the fog cleared. One more day tomorrow by the looks of it before the cloud rolls in from the west. On another note today, things are changing where I work. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/13/galapagos-charles-river-lb-idUSL6N0MA0OY20140313 A big multinational has taken over where I work which at the moment we are not too sure what the future will be, but given the size of the company who bought us and the fact that we offer a different service to them,it is most likely that the outlooks will be a positive one for us. Only time will tell.
  2. Captain Shortwave
    Morning all Misty again here this morning, but doesn't look as thick and can see some blue sky so hopefully it won't take long to burn off.
  3. Captain Shortwave
    Well the GFS and ECM keep the unsettled weather in week 2 and fail to really bring it into the 7 day range. If this is right then the breakdown would have been delayed by near enough a full week given it was originally predicted to happen this coming weekend. GEM on the other hand is more unsettled by the middle of next week. Well the ECM has hopped to the GFS solution this morning which leaves the GEM isolated, worth noting the UKMO looks like heading in a similar direction to the GFS/ECM way at day 6.
  4. Captain Shortwave
    Evening, what a lovely day it has been here, after the mist and fog cleared it was sunny, calm and warm. Hope for more of the same tomorrow
  5. Captain Shortwave
    Morning, misty start here, looks like it will clear pretty quickly hopefully.
  6. Captain Shortwave
    I don't think you need to be a "mildie" to point out how mild our winter has been Where you live was 1.5-2 degrees warmer than average. That would be classified as mild. As for the models, well the colder spell looks like being just one day now. ECM and GFS later on are trying to get high pressure to build back in across the south, whether it will or not is a big question. The one fact is the relentless energy sitting over Greenland and Canada which we just cannot shift and seems to scupper any real colder weather by flattening the pattern.
  7. Captain Shortwave
    Evening, reasonable afternoon after a grey morning, quite chilly outside. Hopefully there will be more sun and warmth tomorrow.
  8. Captain Shortwave
    Morning, cloudy start here. Hopefully it will get better during the day.
  9. Captain Shortwave
    Hmm ECM is again going for no cold snap whatsoever GFS and GEM do go for something colder though for a brief period
  10. Captain Shortwave
    Only 9 days till it happens, what could possibly go wrong
  11. Captain Shortwave
    Well this sums up what I said earlier No clearance over the Greenland region which results in the high being flattened and a westerly flow returning. We need all the energy over Greenland/Canada gone to allow the Azores high to back as far north and west as possible. Whilst I may have been very pro this high pressure spell, I would not say no to a decent northerly as we lose the pleasant sunny weather type as the high slips away south west anyway. It would be nice to have a nice mix of unseasonable warmth and cold because March is probably the best month to get both (as 2012 and 2013 showed in polar opposite ways) I must admit I'm not liking the way the ECM is heading late on (return to very wet conditions)
  12. Captain Shortwave
    Well the GFS says yes to a colder spell in a week or so time Low pressure slipping south east through Norway with high pressure retrogressing westwards to open the door to some bitter north winds GEM on the other hand is saying no Suggesting a stronger westerly jet with high pressure remaining to the south west but close enough to keep the UK in rather average conditions. You need the clearance of the low heights to our north west to develop a distinguished Scandi trough and pull winds round to the north, if we don't then we will end up with a rather average westerly pattern. Might add the GFS ens look good for a cold snap beyond day 7
  13. Captain Shortwave
    Morning, bright start to the day here though it does looks cloudier and cooler than the last couple of days. Still not convinced on a proper cold spell myself later on in the month, looks like one of those events which will probably get shunted into the continent though I might be wrong.
  14. Captain Shortwave
    Afternoon, absolute beauty of a day here, unbroken sunshine and a high of 19C, surprised and delighted that some places have breached the 20C mark today, it took until the end of June last year to break 20C back in Yarmouth so this Spring has certainly started well.
  15. Captain Shortwave
    Whilst many are still harping on about a return to colder unsettled weather, one question? Wasn't the breakdown supposed to happen at the end of this week into next weekend? The models are now showing this for Monday week which shows the breakdown is being pushed further back and unable to get into the 7 day range. Until then there should be caution of the strength of the jet coming out of the state which like the last few months has tended to be shown as too weak/amplified compare to what we end up having. Instead of a sudden change it seems to be more a return to mixed and more average conditions with the cold held up to the north of the UK. Another note of course is the transfer of the main lobe of the vortex from Canada/Greenland to sit across northern Russia and Scandinavia but we seem to keep holding residual energy over Greenland which stops the winds swinging round to the north and instead the Azores high to our south west manages to nose across southern Europe in the reliable/semi reliable. Until we see the complete clearance of the vortex from Greenland then we won't see anything particularly special except for some polar maritime incursions into the north. Might as well add that today the 20C mark was broken, given the winter we have had that is very surprising that we have shot straight into Spring like we have.
  16. Captain Shortwave
    Evening all, after a cloudy morning the sun came out and it was really pleasant on the drive home, really feels like spring now. Glad to see that the weekend looks fine and warm too, might crack out just a T-shirt this weekend
  17. Captain Shortwave
    likewise those Spanish plumes and storms might manage to make it to the UK unlike last year. ECM showing the high in a really nice position Chilly nights and warm sunny days near enough countrywide hopefully.
  18. Captain Shortwave
    Well the breakdown according to the GFS and ens is around day 10, which is the same point it was a couple of days ago so maybe the high is proving to be a little more resilient than the models first thought, well except the GEM which is adamant that high pressure will be fully in charge even by day 10. The high looks to set up in a very good position next week so it will come down to any fronts being trapped in situ as to where cloud might turn up as there shouldn't be too much low cloud drifting onto windward coasts.
  19. Captain Shortwave
    Cloudy start to the day here, not long until the weekend now
  20. Captain Shortwave
    Probably because it's 11+ days away and well out of any reasonably forecasting confidence. ECM ens want high pressure to decline south westwards into week 2 still but whether we will return to bog standard unsettled conditions or colder and wetter conditions. Before then enjoy the pleasant spring weather we will receive with hopefully very little cloud around.
  21. Captain Shortwave
    Probably right there, though the GEM does show the typical resilience of heights nears the UK once they get established so it might have the high further north compared to other models it might still be closest to the mark. To get a northerly like the one above we need a drastic reduction in the strength of the jet coming out of the state which to be honest I don't really see. Probably a breakdown to unsettled conditions in the north whilst the south is drier is a decent bet here. Still good to see that the high isn't forecast to drift into any annoying positions which bring the low cloud conveyor belt our way.
  22. Captain Shortwave
    Looks like a solid week of settled weather, perhaps longer in the south, then after that we look to be seeing a changed to a more mixed and average setup with heights to the south west occasionally ridging towards the UK between more unsettled periods of weather. The high looks to be well positioned with a light south easterly flow for the south and south westerly for the north, looks like there could be plenty of sunny days to come as we never really pick up a flow which can bring plenty of cloud in off the sea.
  23. Captain Shortwave
    Morning, another bright start if a lot milder this morning.
  24. Captain Shortwave
    Hmm these retrogression signals very often get toned down by quite a margin, usually to simply transferring core surface heights from the UK/East of UK to somewhere close to Ireland and bring cooler cloudier weather into the east... saw this too many times last summer. Any big movements tend to appear at close range. At the moment I'm happy to enjoy a week or so of pleasant sunny weather with heights close to the UK.
  25. Captain Shortwave
    Morning, two frosty mornings in a row, don't think we managed this all winter
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