Captain Shortwave

Frankly the charts on show at the moment are some of the worst I have seen in my time model watching. low after low crashing through the UK bring lots of rain and strong winds. I just want out, by any means necessary!

Utterly depressing sight really The energy from the Siberian vortex looks forecast to be fully transferred to the Canadian lobe. Which leaves us right in the firing line for more wet and windy weather whilst a good part of Russia eastwards to the bearing strait will be under a huge developing blocking high. The Siberian block is well supported by its own ensembles What else is there to say really.

Crap The only consolation was a few thunderstorms.

What an awful drive home, heavy rain, puddles and streams on the roads. Sums up this winter really.

True, GEM on the other hand... 7 rock solid Euro high, frankly at this point I would take it just so it would stop raining in southern areas. 850s of 16C in Barcelona on this chart, *casually books Ryanair ticket to Barcelona*

Morning, almost the weekend dry and misty this morning here.

Why oh why can't newspapers be prosecuted for this. It's complete trash and deliberately targets the most vulnerable to make them worry. I seriously hate this country sometimes.

Very grim here this morning. Grey and damp sums it up

Well some better blocking on the ECM tonight, but with the conclusion that has summed up the entire winter Central/Eastern USA goes into the freezer.... AGAIN!!!! To see a reasonably good Arctic profile but to also have the constant amorphous blob over Canada/Greenland. Such a frustrating winter. T216 - ECM stop being a model whore

Welcome to the cold snap.... It's still flaming raining!!!! Hope everyone has a good day

Well good agreement on the Siberian vortex giving a massive donation to the "save the Canadian vortex" trust. GFS Ens If this energy transfer happens then as a metal robot on a popular American animated show once said...

Hmm I might be wrong but the ECM might throw a lifeline at day 6 Day 6 Well I guess a few effort points can be given Shame really the high to the north east gets split in half with low pressure dropping into western Russia, probably too little to late.

Whilst you should never take day 6 charts as gospel. It's very hard to go against all the models which show near enough the same solution over Europe. Heights maintained to the East. Low pressure to the west splitting near the UK but never really enough to pull the block towards us. You could also quite easily see a mild pattern developing if you start to get a warm draw from the south or south west here (February 2008 perhaps). Still plenty of options long term, mainly relying on what happens to mr blobby's evil Canadian twin brother.

Oh well I guess the one positive is if this winter does ed up snowless then the likes of James Madden and Vantage weather services, along with the media outlets which expose the public to them should at least be finished. Well I certainly hope they will.

Morning, just frosty here by the looks of it. Oh well

GFS continues to toy with a positive anomaly in the Pacific which makes all previous ridges look feeble and weak. That's not normal in the slightest and certainly wouldn't be aiding zonality. GFS is an an interesting run, maybe I should keep my mind open just until tomorrows output to see whether we can rescue the end of week slider.

Well with the shortwave upstream running over the top of the Azores high and engaging the cold polar air, it pretty much kills the potential trough disruption which looked pretty good for the end of this week. Things might change but it may be too far to reign things back in our favour. On the other hand the high to the north east will remain and as seem over the coming week, it's influence can push westwards with us under an easterly for a couple of days, it can happen again or even a slider beyond around day 5. I have to admit to feeling very weary and tired with the current set up and the many near misses we have seen, but we have to soldier on and with the strat warming coming into play soon, we might see some positive changes in the near future. For now we remain in possibly the most frustrating holding pattern ever in the history of the universe Ok the last sentence may be a little OTT, but you get the gist. Oh and enjoy the snow if any of you see any tonight

Fingers crossed on getting a dusting tonight good luck guys n' gals

The GFS isn't terrible if we can tweak the pattern to include a bit more forcing from the heights to the north. The jet is well positioned but the Atlantic train just parks itself over western Europe with frequent spells of heavy rain or showers. If the GFS verified I would probably be ticking over my thunderstorm counter over the coming weeks. It was collecting dust during the summer

Well the UKMO pretty much matches the metoffice outlook really, rain pushing east on Friday followed by a chilly weekend in a polar maritime airflow GFS just wants to eliminate the UK and replace it with more ocean by producing biblical amounts of rain by parking yet another low on top of us.

I must admit that I am quite bemused by the last part of the forecast as I don't see a clean win for the Atlantic come the weekend. More like fronts stalling over the UK with a mix of rain/sleet/snow (high ground most favoured). Unless of course the models are about to drop and clanger tonight and go full throttle zonal on us again.

Nothing wrong with a difference in opinion for sure, as always there is method to why models will show a solution based on looking at the European picture in fine detail, though I am unconvinced that the low would simply sit over Scotland and not at least try to drain into the trough over the Mediterranean. The operational for the 06z was like Jason M suggested probably one of the worst solutions out of the suite with the ensembles going for something a lot cleaner (more the way I envisioned anyway) Clear movement south east of that low as opposed to stalling over the UK. Mean temperatures look good in the north, more knife edge in the south with 850s around -2ish. Long term there is big support for a strong block north of Alaska for the foreseeable future That's a huge signal for that to be in place. ECM not as strong but there is a definite positive anomaly up there If the Scandi high remains persistent as it has and with a strong block well forecast over the other side of the pole. Then there is a good chance of keeping the two lobes of the tropospheric vortex separate and hopefully weakening the Atlantic jet somewhat.

Going to honest, the GFS looks like it's making a real hash of that low, it's still somehow going north east. We have heights east and north of that low and a trough in the Mediterranean. That low should disrupt and move south east, not almost stall over Scotland and wait to phase with the incoming low off the Eastern seaboard. In other words I think the GFS is a blithering idiot

Better run from the GFS so far in the 3 key areas (upstream, east of the UK and the Pacific ridge). Now as that low disrupts what will the shortwave in the Atlantic do, will it cause the whole lot to barrel around or will it with the flatter Azores high drop into Europe without much of a fuss. Day 5 At this point there is no way the Atlantic is getting through, just a case of where the line between rain and snow is.

Going to echo the thoughts of many on the ECM, well I just want to slap it senseless. After around 10 days of that high being in situ to our north east, I don't buy the ECM/GFS evolution of it simply sinking away in 24 hours allowing a south westerly flow back into the UK for the foreseeable. That leaves the other models which frankly want to not only keep the high but phase it with further pulses of heights being delivered from across the pole with the GEM developing a Scandi high on steroids Game over for the Atlantic here with further pulses incoming to feed the high and a wall of cold marches westwards. Probably the correct solution is probably in between with the battlefront draw somewhere across the UK, but more runs needed.