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Captain Shortwave

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Everything posted by Captain Shortwave

  1. Captain Shortwave
    Morning. The rain has returned this morning. Still I can look forward to eating out tonight in Newmarket
  2. Captain Shortwave
    Not quite true, even with a raging PV over Canada/Greenland you can still get heights close enough to the UK to bring cold weather. Just in this case we are literally just a couple of hundred miles away from very cold surface conditions and potential battleground events. Not to say that won't change. The Arctic high looks set to reinforce that high to the north east, could it push west? Could we get a link (even briefly) between the Atlantic and arctic ridges. Both of those could push things in our favour. Oh well with the block to the north east continuing to exist, my sanity levels will continue to drop to new depths (currently sub zero by my last check).... standard
  3. Captain Shortwave
    I will take the NAVGEM There is your decent energy clearance, low will sink south east and in comes the easterly.
  4. Captain Shortwave
    Probably the best low resolution GFS run for a long time.
  5. Captain Shortwave
    Whilst everyone looks to the north west in horror, it's really over Siberia where things go wrong with the ECM wanting to transfer energy across the pole and in doing that recharges the Greenland/Canadian vortex and also puts pressure on the Scandi high. This is what you can see with the T144 and T168 charts So basically we need that to do one on future output. The shortwaves going over the Atlantic ridge is not the end of the world as if you have heights solid to the north east then you have every chance of getting a decent easterly after it has past whilst keeping a mainly polar maritime sourced flow. The Siberian area for the PV is like a cat on a hot tin roof.
  6. Captain Shortwave
    Good luck jennyjane1, hope it all goes well. The fog has arrived now. Shame, would have been a stunning sunrise and view as I arrive into work.
  7. Captain Shortwave
    Frosty start here. The decided that it couldn't be bothered so it's just clear and crisp here.
  8. Captain Shortwave
    Fog and frost already here, nice to see to be honest. Lets hope the GFS is on to something. Friday might end up cold Even the mean has temperatures sub 5C with the op offering 1s and 2s inland. That's colder than 90% of the nights this winter.
  9. Captain Shortwave
    I am shocked at some of the members in there, some seriously good charts at just 4 days away with a much deeper low over southern Europe and the the Scandi block racing west to confront a very angry Atlantic. A few brief showery easterlies along with many with some interesting set ups with cold continental and polar maritime air in the mix so there is a chance of something wintry.
  10. Captain Shortwave
    Is a chart at day 4 keeping it real? If so I will take the 1-2C maximum for here The GFS does get milder air in for the weekend, but where can that low go, the northern hemisphere has been cut in half by a wall off warmer air If nothing else, that arctic high does give the green lights for the Euro trough to fill it's boots. Also just 24-36 hours ago the models were sinking the Scandi high pretty uniformly, now it's remaining there with decent support.
  11. Captain Shortwave
    Well well well better trough disruption very early on and suddenly we end up with a south easterly Cold 850's closer to the UK, on a collision course with the mild Atlantic air Note the maxima for this friday, barely above freezing in central areas!!!
  12. Captain Shortwave
    just highlighting a key word Frosty.. keep the faith To be honest it would be foolish to ignore a very positive set of ECM ens tonight.
  13. Captain Shortwave
    Well the ECM ens have a NW/SE tilt on the jet, but with the pattern too far east so it's a generally west/north westerly flow. I'm guessing the op is in the minority in getting the Arctic ridge to push towards Greenland and instead transfer in to the north east of the UK, reinforcing the Scandi high and forces near enough all the Atlantic energy south east. Well we finally might get a decent Euro trough. Simply put it's not great at face value for the UK, but it would not take much to become epic. De Bilt looks rather chilly Atlantic ridge... where art thou???
  14. Captain Shortwave
    I'm guessing that you are ignoring the later frames of the ECM then
  15. Captain Shortwave
    So you doubt any cold charts which are not within 12 hours of verifying but are happy to call the next 6 weeks zonal. Happy days
  16. Captain Shortwave
    Morning all. Air frost here, dying of shock
  17. Captain Shortwave
    Just don't fall hook, line and sinker for any low resolution gfs output Right time to sleep... but not with the fishes and hopefully not for a long time yet.
  18. Captain Shortwave
    If things look like going down the trout, then we can always get Michael Fish on the case
  19. Captain Shortwave
    Hopefully the models fishtail to a cold outlook tomorrow
  20. Captain Shortwave
    That is really a close call on Friday, the 528 dam line just across the north sea. Wouldn't take much to see a max of 6C become one around freezing from there.
  21. Captain Shortwave
    Considering the dire pub runs of recent days, that is a pretty decent effort there. Better ridging all round and close to delivering something at the end of high resolution. Also the cold air from the Scandi high is closer on this run, so maybe still hope there of something wintry at the end of the week.
  22. Captain Shortwave
    Nah, too much snow, too cold, it hasn't snowed in Plymouth One thing to look for on the pub run is an Arctic high actually existing in the latter half of high resolution. That would be a start, oh and a pinch of westward correction in the early timeframes.
  23. Captain Shortwave
    Another 24 hours I guess until I need to take the Scandi high outside (shotgun in hand) and cast that aside. The next moment of opportunity will be at around day 6-8, the ECM ens show some level of amplification in the Atlantic, we need an inland runner up the East coast of Canada to get the Atlantic ridge north enough to meet the Arctic high. Sigh when will we get some luck with the upstream pattern. I guess I could be wrong about the Scandi high again, it does seem to have a charmed life.
  24. Captain Shortwave
    I saw a tesco bag in the sea off Southend beach yesterday, does that count???
  25. Captain Shortwave
    JMA does the job ECM is pretty much flat at day 9. We need something on our side of the pole and act with the Pacific ridge to drive a pattern change.
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