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Captain Shortwave

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Everything posted by Captain Shortwave

  1. Captain Shortwave
    he is talking about the UK ECM getting there slowly
  2. Captain Shortwave
    And that's why looking at the mean can sometimes be a bad idea, there are a huge range of solutions, note the few which go with a GEM type strong Atlantic ridge, there are also some scandi heights and heights more centred towards the pole. As well as more progressive members. Also with Ian fergusson stating near record Shannon entropy, and rapidly warming strat and an unseasonably cold plunge about to occur across the states, I would treat progressive members with a lot of skepticism, well as much as the blocking ones get on here
  3. Captain Shortwave
    So the the GFS and UKMO keep us in a stalemate, though the UKMO does have reinforcements coming across the pole from the Pacific ridge. Note the GEM produces a much stronger Atlantic ridge and surprise surprise we hit the block winning end game with easterlies setting up shop across the UK.
  4. Captain Shortwave
    Morning all, will need to catch up with all the lovely stories on here when I get back from work Weather.... er it's cloudy, not raining which is a plus.... for now
  5. Captain Shortwave
    Interesting that only 36 hours ago some people were saying a return to zonality in around 8 days time. Well lets use the day 6 charts to see if they are right GFS Maybe but there looks like there will be trough disruption, unsettled but the block is still still. UKMO Clear split flow with energy going south east into Europe ECM Similar to the UKMO Oh and the zonal breakdown is sill at about 8 days away, the same time as 36 hours ago.... and 36 hours before that. Getting a trend here aren't we
  6. Captain Shortwave
    Better position for the next low, day 6 onward sees the Atlantic ridge reamplify and this time the high is much closer to us so watch the next system head south east. *DISCLAIMER* Of course this is the GFS so the energy will blatantly go north east just for the lols
  7. Captain Shortwave
    Trouble is if the Atlantic does blast through; 1) that cold air over America will be either modified greatly by the Atlantic or by the sheer nature of the pattern end up north of Iceland, let alone anywhere near us. 2) If westerlies do get in then we might not see another chance for weeks, no guarantees but I would rather be looking at the chance now if the upstream pattern works in our favour. So then the models.... there is another huge plunge of cold in two stages across the US between days 3 and 8. We need this to dig as far south as possible as by consequence we get a stronger Atlantic ridge being thrown up. The Atlantic ridge is the key here as we have the Pacific ridge which is an almost dead cert due to its frequent appearance during this season and the Scandi ridge is there in situ now. So we need the Atlantic ridge to deliver the killer blow and cut low heights over Central/southern Europe. Of course the reverse is true, if the pattern flattens then the Atlantic jet can simply blast the Scandi high out of the way. So we continue for now in an equilibrium between these two end game scenarios, with a weak Atlantic ridge weathering a strong jet coming off the Eastern seaboard which dissipates before arriving into Europe. For now we remain completely clueless to which outcome we will have.
  8. Captain Shortwave
    Nope Another 24 hours past and we still don't have a clue
  9. Captain Shortwave
    Morning all, it's raining. Surprise surprise Have a good day everyone.... whatever the type of rain you are getting.
  10. Captain Shortwave
    And two days ago we had zonality returning at an even shorter timeframe. I know, I threw in the towel at that point!!! The GFS produces a finger of cold air extending out at Greenland which wasn't present in it's 12z run which halts the trough disruption and causes the low to sit in situ in the Iceland region. This is at just 72 hours out. Previous run Nowhere near as extensive hence more energy goes south east I wouldn't call day 5 at the moment, let alone day 8 onwards. Also if the UKMO went out to T192, would we end up zonal?
  11. Captain Shortwave
    oh dear, these jokes have brought me to tears. The models chopping around doesn't help either.......
  12. Captain Shortwave
    Well given that even the professionals are mentioning high uncertainty, then I think your fact is just an opinion, for which some of the models disagree with. The point is we don't really know where we are heading, even beyond about day 3 at the moment apart from the next approach low will disrupt with x amount going north east and y amount going south east, the value of x and y being critical to what happens over the UK. Given the operations are all over the place and giving no realistic trend then I would say that all options are open. Model wise, the ECM ens from my viewpoint have ore members colder than the op in the mid range with better trough disruption. Though someone who can quickly view the postage stamps can agree and correct me otherwise.
  13. Captain Shortwave
    What I would give for a solid trend instead of the models shooting wildly even at 4-5 days out. Just when the GFS/UKMO give hope, the ECM goes westerly, but then cuts the jetstreak out at the end and we have another disruption low event. That huge cold plunge into the states would of course be a decent reason for the at times completely random output downstream.
  14. Captain Shortwave
    Nice to see the GFS and UKMO heading towards something a little more blocked. Hopefully the ECM will conjure up something tasty over the next 50 minutes.
  15. Captain Shortwave
    I think I will wait until this evening to pass any further judgement. though this could be heading for another score draw with low pressure parked over the UK with neither the Atlantic or Scandi high taking control of proceedings. Though the constant tug of war between zonality and full on blocking is really starting to wear thin now, I kind of just want an end game either way at the moment.
  16. Captain Shortwave
    Morning, partly cloudy with no frost here. Frustration with the models allowed me to to boil the kettle with my bare hands
  17. Captain Shortwave
    Oh well the models looks pretty reasonable in all honesty, the fax chart looks decent too. At least there is a good chance of getting winds to back towards the East. Hopefully thing will continue to build and not be like a couple of night ago where strong blocking trends were replaced by a zonal outlook in just 6 hours. Frosty - Keep the faith dude, you never know what's around the corner, and in times of high uncertainty, so do the metoffice, the joys of meteorology and how the models that predicted the first prolonged heatwave in 6 years accurately at two weeks out, cannot for the life of them work out the American pattern at just 3 days out
  18. Captain Shortwave
    The mean is fine from the ECM, even at day 10 you still see a Scandi high, and Atlantic ridge and clear signs of energy going south east into Southern Europe. You can't expect much at days 8-10 from a mean apart from a broad trend, especially as the uncertainties earlier on can be the difference between a blocking high and zonal westerlies.
  19. Captain Shortwave
    Whilst it may be true that the models have handled the block to our north east badly, the same could be said for any return to zonal westerlies. The models are struggling on both fronts here. Every model easterly gets removed, but also every zonal output suffers the same fate with the UK eventually trapped in a slow moving deep trough with low pressure pushing through the UK. I just hope that the block wins here.
  20. Captain Shortwave
    Well then Starting to turn rather chilly and some proper cold heading towards Eastern Scotland
  21. Captain Shortwave
    morning all. Clear start to the day here.... no frost
  22. Captain Shortwave
    Rather bemusing that we have had 3 completely different ECM ops which are then backed up well by the ensembles. This has to be rare, ok the ECM can swing even at day 5, but for the ensembles to do the same is very strange.
  23. Captain Shortwave
    JMA Here we go again. Not sure if model output..... or trolls The 850s are interesting, note the cold isn't sourced from anywhere, it just develops in situ under that trough. Could be cold enough for wintry showers, probably graupel.
  24. Captain Shortwave
    STOP IT ECM!!!!
  25. Captain Shortwave
    nope couldn't see 50 feet in front of me due to north sea cack No I never saw any storms in the north sea, trouble these days is that the storms tend to miss by hundred of miles. The lack of nagging breeze will be good though,
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