Captain Shortwave

Oh the Express didn't forecast this didn't they.... whoops

Whilst the pub run is rather rubbish synoptically, I would probably take a weak Azores ridge with some decent cold 850s, a couple of dry crisp sunny days would be a nice change. Probably some scattered wintry showers in western areas for a time. Got to laugh after that, the high drifts north east with the next low approaching, possible slider here.

It's been a long winter for all of us... capped off by the irony that after a summer of virtually no storms we end up with a winter which has had several thundery events, including todays which was by all means an epic storm. Shame the UKMO dropped that pure cold easterly so it's back to where the line will be drawn between cold rain and snow. lets hope for some more westward corrections over the coming runs.

Going to be honest, that squall line was pretty epic, 15 minutes of torrential rain, hail, thunder and pink lightning capped off with really strong winds. What month is it again

So that thunderstorm. Torrential rain, hail, thunder and pink lightning along with storm force winds. EPIC!!!

Morning all, a bit murky to start off with here Lets hope the UKMO is onto something...

During my lifetime I've seen flooding events all over the country which are very widespread. Frankly the biggest problem the UK has with cold and ice is it's complete lack of preparation for it, there is no need for mass chaos if the councils treat the roads properly and people drive carefully. Most incidents are completely avoidable. Whilst flooding, it just happens and frankly there is little people can do about it. In the end the one human negative effect of winter is the cold and people struggling to heat their homes, but it's a tiny pimple compare to having your house flooded or having structural damage due to high winds.

very little consistency by the ECM, even in a range where it should really be consistent. Last run it sank the Scandi high quickly, not the case this time with a stronger ridge north. But it is stil further east than the UKMO and then just refuses to take that low south east and it just sits there at day 7/8. lol, that is one massive col to our north at day 9 I'm going to be honest, I think the ECM has lost the plot again.

I think it's best to interpret it as a fine line between what we want (coldies) and what we despise (a heck of a lot of rain). Will temperature be below average, almost certainly beyond the next couple of days, but will it be cold enough for snow? Who knows at the moment. But in the end what else have we got. With low pressure moving south east through the UK, then some places will end up with westerlies, whilst others end up with colder easterlies or northerlies and I would expect some sort of cold pool to tap into to our north east. Just a case where that magic line ends up to be honest. ^As usual Nick S summed things up better than me

To be fair the Berlin temps are at around -10C in the first few days, the only way is probably up (Warsaw even lower) looks chilly though even far out which puts us right on the rain/snow border. Many nerves wil be shred over the next few days, unless the UKMO is right and we go into the freezer.

I think waiting until tomorrow morning would be best before making any judgements, speaking from someone who got badly burnt from an out of kilter UKMO run which turned out to be right. It really is down to that Siberian section of the vortex really, only a small margin will result in cold unstable air sticking around the siberian region or going underneath the high to our north east and supporting the block which gives the robust high seen on the UKMO. It's probably not much in the early ranges but it sure makes a difference by day 5 onwards. @Draztik, i've accepted the soggy inevitable for a few days now, this literally is mass flooding or snowfest.

I think the triangle of doom jokes might return after this post

Rather underwhelming ECM op, but like the ukmo it's rather progressive in the synoptic evolution, a pattern similar to the previous few ECM ens I think is favoured with low pressure pushing south east into europe with the UK on the eastern flank of the lows as they pass by. ECM is sinking the block to the north east too quickly and the UKMO is probably overdoing the strength of the high, though it's position is probably not too far off the mark, just weaker and allowing the Atlantic a little bit closer. But the 12z ens might prove me wrong there.

To be fair the ecm is more of a middle ground with slightly better heights over the pole and a slightly more amplified Atlantic ridge which is more pronounced at day 5 GFS

Evening all After a long day, I got blown away by the ecm ens this morning, wow, great trend for low pressure to happily head south east, perhaps even to the west of the UK which would provide a lot of fun and trauma GFS has the pattern further east but the general trend is there, just needs a few cranks further west (as per usual) Await the UKMO to see if we are getting closer to a cold and potentially snowy outlook next week

Morning Frosty start here, could turn nice and cold next week if the models are right (certainly hope so ) The frost is now melting rapidly

One thing is for sure, the weather from Sunday onwards will be headline news. Question is will it be further flooding or significant snow.

So the GFS sinks the block to the north east and then spawns two shortwaves, one over Scotland and one over Western Norway, just to casually guide the upstream low to bring in a westerly breakdown. Or I could have just said the GFS defaulted to zonal

ECM ens, err.... the massive raging mean canadian vortex over Greenland/Canada of yesterdays runs has vanished. A much more meridinal pattern is favoured going into week 2 now. Low heights look like continuing to drop south east through the UK much like the operational. Not bad really. 850s are solid too Earlier on, we have the -8 isotherm touching the east coast at day 7 Plenty of interest I think in the next few weeks.

JMA clears the low quicker than other models and brings in a decent easterly Shame it then pushes the Scandi high out of the way like it was nothing

Crikey, this would be very wet and possibly snowy for the lucky ones so, so tight this one, a little more push towards favouring the block and this set up could be epic.

Much better across the pole from the ECM, energy isn't spilling across from Siberia to feed the Canadian vortex. By the way, I don't buy the quick retreat eastwards of the Scandi high to be honest

Right then, I look at the charts tonight and feel a great sense of dread, a situation which could quite frankly go down to the wire here. The models all agree on a substantial low moving south east through the UK and will stall and fill somewhere south east of the UK. At this point there is a fine line between a lot of snow and a lot of rain. The upstream pattern and the positioning of polar heights are crucial to what side of the line we fall. If the pattern becomes more amplified than it is now then the chances of heavy snow increase and we get a better surge of cold air along the northern flank of the low, if not then we might just not be able to get the level of cold (dew points etc) to get snow to low levels. More runs needed but if this goes the way of the pear, many in my area of the world could suffer greatly, this is 100mm+ levels of rainfall if that low stalls in a location where we can't get the cold air into the system. This is very high risk we need a more amplified pattern up the western Atlantic to clear that low quickly and get the most robust easterly we can.

Clear skies here, no frost.... what a rip off

Good output in the mid-range with a deep low forming over central Europe which should be able to deliver snow for at least some of the UK. Later on the models do seem keen to want to transfer energy from the Siberian segment of the PV to the Canada/Greenland segment. What a kill joy, someone give that Siberian vortex a good talking to!!! UKMO looks best this morning, could we be about to get the whole block of cold to our east to move in our direction (maybe if the Atlantic stays asleep a little longer)