Snowy Easterlies

pretty much, yesroll on summer, actually scrap that because we will be chasing heat waves in FI that don't come off, however warm sunny days are still far more common than snow at least in this part of the world shortwaves are the killer of snowy synoptics, whats the killer of nice summer synoptics not shortwaves surely ?

looks a better run so far out to 108 high looks stronger

that is true the actual synoptics are rare for december, but if the GFS verified it would still be just dry and cold for most, i had a frost the other night in completely different synoptics its isn't always mild and zonal in december like people seem to think, i can recall many anticyclones spells or high pressure over sat over us in december with frosty nights but those synopitcs didn't look anything special but we still got cold days and frost

when we say downgrade we mean downgrade for snow from the easterly, yes it stays cold but most on here look for snow not frost and sunshine as that is not rare like snow is, the control run is very nice in deep FI though, yet another bite of the cherry perhaps

cold and dry is not as uncommon as people think and the GFS shows cold and frosty weather, even in FI snow reaches the west but then it dies out, albeit it stays cold for a while longer http://www.meteociel...&ech=192&mode=2 of course it will change but this is what the actual chart shows, and not the "potential"

yes the met update is good but have they got that from old data ? because the latest UKMO will probably give us fewer showers tbh i will welcome a return to mild zonal if we get no snow out of this cold spell, i am a fan of snow, not dry cold, heatings costing a fortune anyway thats for another thread

i have no idea and won't answer that question, but i want to hear from a level headed poster and not from the blind faith brigade because even though i sound negative the clear fact is the GFS in particular is a downgrade in the shorter term and mid term with the blocking and easterly, i refuse to talk about next weekend and beyond now, im only interested in early to mid next week's easterly if there will be one the ECM and UKMO give some sort of easterly but even they have toned it down a little, anyway best wait for more runs before i get too downbeat but im not getting my hopes up

i don't really want to speculate on "potential" at T216 yet again, nobody knows what will happen then but that chart clearly shows the atlantic winning, and when i said milder i meant too mild for snow i didn't mean milder as in 13c plus the winds are coming from the south at 216 not from germany i won't be suckered into potential at 216, nobody seems to be talking about the downgrade in the shorter term with the easterly, esp the GFS which removes a lot of the blocking

i didn't say the block had gone but the atlantic still crashes through and uppers clearly rise on this run, we can speculate all we like about potential undercutters but i just see the charts of what they actually show and i don't always have faith in just potential, lets be level headed here, its wrong to say it will be mild by 216 but its also wrong to say that there will certainly be snow from that low, its deep FI

ECM is better than GFS at T144 and T168 but this phrase springs to mind, yet again http://t0.gstatic.co...yT_8HZwjwysPSop

i can't decide whether the ECM is a downgrade or upgrade compared to yesterday's run, however its better than GFS up to T168 as blocking is stronger

East of England Forecast Summary Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday Becoming cloudy and windy with patchy rain during Sunday. Monday and Tuesday, becoming very cold with bright spells, but also with sleet or snow showers, some heavy, leading to accumulations. update from the met office, is this based on yesterdays UKMO or this mornings ?

control run looks nice too, how many bites of the cherry do we need ?

true, but the downgrades start very early on, if there was a big downgrade at T168 i wouldn't worry as much, but the the downgrades start at T90, who knows maybe there is time for upgrades again but im not optimistic about it, i bet on the 12z we see great charts at T200 again lol

yep but we always get sucked in and we will never learn, people can bang on about this being a cold run still, but what we are after will be in short supply until a potential low hits us next weekend and no way am i hanging my hopes on a potential undercutter which is at T192 GEM is also a downgrade from yesterdays run in the short term, but at T180 the blocking comes back over scandi, but again, im not falling for it, as its FI lets hope the ECM saves us

yeah its a cold run for sure, but you can't deny the easterly has disappeared and blocking is far weaker on this run, compared to what was shown over the last few days, UKMO is not bad but what would happen after T144 ? now we wait for the ECM, best to judge after that

that low just seems to die out when it hits us at T204, i refuse to get excited about potential for that though, there is a clear downgrade in the short term, but as i said it somehow stays cold on this run well into FI UKMO better than GFS but still a downgrade on yesterdays run IMO

have to hope the UKMO don't follow the GFS now, the GFS reminds of the last let down a couple of weeks ago when blocking wasn't as strong as people thought and the atlantic crashed through, i wouldn't say this was only one run though the 18z started the downgrade early on PW we were let down a couple of weeks ago remember lol Edit it somehow stays cold though on the GFS even though blocking is blasted away

do i laugh, or do i cry, GFS is a big downgrade in the short term

agree the 500mb charts flatter to deceive, where is the strong windflow for next wed and thur? some places might get something on tues when the flow is stronger, as for next weekend im not going to speculate on that right now, quite often these lows end up further south and we end up staying cold and dry.

you said there was no way back for the atlantic a minute ago

http://www.meteociel...1-144.GIF?06-12

http://modeles.meteo...h-2-1-228.png?0 could this happen by next weekend, this chart is good, but it would be so typical if we ended up with a west based NAO after all this talk of a scandi high

GFS is more blocked than UKMO, is the UKMO good flow looks a bit slack at T144

amazing run so far, atlantic is held back even further at T150 on this run