Snowy Easterlies

my statements about what the models were showing, weren't deleted, i expected my moaning to be deleted thats all i have seen these charts for 5 years now and have seen downgrade after downgrade except for 2010, so i know not to raise my expectations if i see good charts at T192 but i always get suckered in i can't help it by the way ECM is poor that easterly has gone, who expected it to still be there this morning ?

agree, but im trying not to be too negative as the glass half full brigade are shooting me down ECM is a clear downgrade from yesterday at T168 as the easterly is gone, but "its just one run" as they say and we should ignore it right ? Edit the easterly is back at T240 shame its only a half baked one though

this block is going to be broken down easily so who's to say the next ridge/block won;t do the same ? a block can be too far north to effect us because you get a slight pressure rise from the south, and those tame heights near the arctic probably won't force the lows far enough south next week, i still think that scotland and the north could end up with snow if a bit of cold upper air gets to them, but i very much doubt the south will as for GFS FI overpowering lows yes that is true, but it also doesn't mean heights are certain to build into greenland either, this current block was modeled to be a lot stronger than it currently is a few days ago and now it barely gets there before being blasted away

if you mean a scandi high on the UKMO T144 chart then im afraid there isn't one, that chart may look cold but the upper air temperature is not cold enough for snow esp on low ground, thats if we actually have the precipitation at that timeframe anyway http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?28-06 as for the negativity and i assume you mean me, its not negativity its realism, sure there are plenty more opportunities down the line for snow but for the next 7 days its unlikely we will see widespread snow, but it will be chilly at least, nothing out of the ordinary for early winter though

potential doesn't always become reality though, that blocking at the pole is too far north to effect us, our best hope is after T168 when heights start ridging north out of the Atlantic, if the ECM is like the UKMO and GFS you can't say its irrelevant because its cross model agreement on a return to the atlantic, if the ECM does bring that easterly it showed last night forward, or a actual proper slider, then there is reason to be tad more optimistic as the GFS could follow it on future runs, i have seen far better potential than this and nothing has happened, so i see no reason why something snowy is going to happen this time when the charts haven't even shown a widespread snowy scenario for a few days now its just all "potential"

UKMO poor too unless you live on a hill or scotland, blocking all gone except for a bit around svalbard which has no effect on us anyway now we wait for the next "potential" spell and go through this all over again zzzzzzzzzzzz but i give credit to those who still have faith for the next 7 days however its stays quite chilly but tbh I'd rather it be 13c, than 5c with a nagging, chilly wind won't be pleasant walking around in those annoying conditions, its just a very normal cold spell/snap for early winter

of course you have reason to be confident lomand you live in scotland, plus people always say the best runs are the 00z and 12z are you binning this run because its a downgrade from yesterday ? there is a clear downgrade in the early timeframe, if there was a downgrade at T144 then it might be different heights fail to make it to Greenland again in FI, this is plausible the GFS does not always go to default im afraid, but thats FI anyway so not worth talking about that i am no WUM i see the charts at face value, and things look average for our island, forget about what the NH profile looks like, just because there is no raging PV, lets be honest we haven't seen a belting run for a few days now, is just all "potential" with these supposed sliders

i suspect this place will become a lot less busy over the next few days now 00z is a downgrade in the very early time-frame lets not kid ourselves here, very cold 850s get to the north sea before retreating again and pressure is higher to the south and west which a very common synoptic pattern, so everything gets shunted further north and may continue to do so on future runs just looks like a normal low pressure pattern to me, don't be fooled by those dark blue 500mb charts, uppers are only at about -3 next week maybe some hill snow thats about it height try build post T168 but is slower then the 18z to do this

my fingers have been burnt to many times, i would be optimistic if that chart was at T72, im sure i've heard people say heights would retrogress before when we've seen good FI charts like that and thy haven't

true it would be a quick sharp blast but where would we go post T240 suppose that don't matter anyway

people are conveniently ignoring the PV too, i suspect it would all topple post T240 anyway

Yes that is a nice easterly in FI, but look at the PV, will everything topple or will heights build post T240 ? all conjuncture anyway and i am not taking this seriously at all, my fingers have been burnt too many times, these models are like trolls

yeah silly differences in FI compared to the ECM 00z, those good charts will look different again come the 00z, yep your right CAUTION must remain, but we all live in hope

here we go again chasing cold charts at T192, i need a rest now lol Edit 216 is a stonker but it always is at that timeframe, pv looks organized though and it will be no shock to see heights failing again and toppling over us

lol the BOM shows a nice easterly at 216 and has has quite a bit of blocking, how long will this saga go on for, especially as the GFS showed an easterly in FI too, don't know if i can be bothered chasing "potential" yet again

the GFS overdoes night time temps sometimes, plus those temps wont be cold enough to harden the ground you need days and days of temps below freezing, not just a couple of nights below freezing, this is your typical uk cold snap we are getting off topic but the bbc website has a snow symbol down for me on saturday, people should check their locations to see if they have snow showing too, but we all know those forecasts are useless just like the models

lol its only going to be cold and frosty for 2 or 3 days then the atlantic comes in again, whether its snow or rain, i too like frosty sunny weather but thats after it snowed if the UKMO really is showing -11 850s then surely we must get some snow from a front coming in at least as it bumps into cold air

but dry surely? its snow we really want, not just cold uppers, plus where did you get that from? i can only get upper temps till T72

i think it will be dry as pressure looks to high on that chart, all conjuncture anyway, but i could put up with 3 weeks of zonal or euro high crap if it meant us having a white christmas and new year period

i need a rest now, we could be chasing phantom cold spells all winter, these models are like trolls no eye candy in FI from the ECM pretty bog standard stuff, despite the PV not being ramped up, some look at the NH profile a bit too much and not see whats staring them in the face on our island

agree mate charts look pretty bog standard apart from this weekend where it will be cold and mostly dry, i think some cling onto the hope that blocking has been underestimated maybe it has maybe it hasn't ??? but the trend is for the atlantic to come in it might get delayed a bit thats all

yes cold but dry, its snow we crave, also i don't understand how you can be very happy, unless you live on a hill or in scotland, who knows we might end up with a slider but as i said the models haven't really shown this yet and it will probably only be transient snow anyway, we haven't seen a good ECM for some time now not even in FI apart from potential heights starting to rebuild, not even a brutal easterly at 216 for example

but by T216 we are back in a southwesterly and there is a deep depression in the atlantic so not even a good FI, we can all hope for a slider but the big guns are not showing this currently

i have posted a lot this morning i suspect someone will shoot me down for being realistic, sorry i don't do blind faith, these charts are nothing special at all, can someone prove otherwise apart from saying something like "T120 is FI, the models under do blocking" lets be honest apart from the UKMO, the GFS and ECM have being mediocre for quite a few runs now the ECM is not as bad as last nights run but the cold soon gets swept away by T168 anyway, yes it may not be mild by then but average is not what we want is it ? and lets be honest even cold and dry is not enough its snow we want

hmmm yes,its colder at T120 compared to the 12z, but again i ask will there be any precipitation? that 120 chart flatters to deceive i think with those dark blues