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Snowy Easterlies

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  1. Snowy Easterlies
    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php JMA is awful i thought people said that the met office hold it in high regard ?
  2. Snowy Easterlies
    How good is the CFS ? lets hope this won't happen
  3. Snowy Easterlies
    much better run, but sadly FI is at about T120 and things will probably change again, but good run and only 8 days away till true cold arrives on this run no shocks soon as GFS gets to low res it gets milder
  4. Snowy Easterlies
    yeah how does he have access to the ECM control run ?
  5. Snowy Easterlies
    that is true actually, today it was 11c but i had the window open, when it was 11c in june i had a jumper on and felt chilly, funny how our body adapts to weather i suspect i will feel cold next week even if temps are about 7c because of the wind
  6. Snowy Easterlies
    only the Nogaps but blocking is further north and west compared to the 12z run
  7. Snowy Easterlies
    well blocking looks flimsier at the start but then it gets its act together
  8. Snowy Easterlies
    so are the ECM ensembles decent then ?
  9. Snowy Easterlies
    charts may be exciting to view right now, but you go out next week on the street and walk in that raw cold wind, you will soon hate it the 850's are not cold enough for snow, so next week will be a nuisance. give me mild zonal any day over crap dry, cloudy, raw easterlies its easy to sit in your nice warm house and look at the charts for next week and say at least we don't have zonal crap, but you go out in that raw weather next week, its horrid
  10. Snowy Easterlies
    what would happen if the ECM went past T240 would the PV ramp up and flatten the ridge or will some proper cold develop ?
  11. Snowy Easterlies
    i thought people said that GFS has a better handle on heights to the northwest, so do we think UKMO has gone of on one ?
  12. Snowy Easterlies
    http://modeles.meteo...nh-0-234.png?12 no chance of a sinker from this right ? shame its only the BOM how much credit does it have ?
  13. Snowy Easterlies
    but if they were showing mega cold we shouldn't ignore them right ? the control run is horrible, i hope that doesn't end up happening otherwise i might need to get the prozac even at this early stage of the season.
  14. Snowy Easterlies
    not to be on the pub run tonight, FI is a borefest with the high just sitting over us, but as its FI im not gonna worry just yet
  15. Snowy Easterlies
    have the ECM ensembles come out yet ?
  16. Snowy Easterlies
    well its friday night and the GFS has been down the pub it seems, PV much weaker in FI compared to the 12z, can we trust this run though as some say 18z is useless
  17. Snowy Easterlies
    thats look good and there doesn't even look like much blocking in those charts, how rare are these synoptics? every time we get a cold spell we always seem to need proper blocking
  18. Snowy Easterlies
    is it me or does the PV seem to get stronger on every new run in FI, blocking still there but will it be strong enough ?
  19. Snowy Easterlies
    ECM not great or is it ? looks like high over us then sinker
  20. Snowy Easterlies
    would i be right in thinking there would be surface cold from the latter stages of ECM, as the blocking can't get far enough north, i hope it doesn't sink
  21. Snowy Easterlies
    throw in the towel? im a pessimist but giving up chasing cold in november is a bit silly
  22. Snowy Easterlies
    but somehow in deep deep FI blocking manages to get to greenland lol
  23. Snowy Easterlies
    GFS 12z and GFS 18z are chalk and chesse in FI, you have to laugh if only it were summer is the phrase that springs to mind yet again
  24. Snowy Easterlies
    that is true and this can happen, but as no one wants to see that, people tend to dismiss this evolution, there are many different synoptics we could have from blocking like a scandi high, it doesn't always have to be a easterly or northerly, we can hope cast all we like but the weather will do what it wants by 240 that big scandi high is still there, we could easily end up with a high slap bang over us as i said, then hope it retrogresses because on this run heights stay low to our northwest
  25. Snowy Easterlies
    this could be a slow burner but thats fine its better if a cold blast came at the end of the month, sun will be very weak then and the cold can build over the confinement, so if the charts showed a high slap bang over us giving us frosty weather, which then retrogressed to our north that would be great even if we had to wait till early december for a cold blast whats wrong with that ? FI is fine for me plenty of blocking and it will be chilly proper autumn early winter weather, the synoptics we have now i detest the most
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