Snowy Easterlies

if the block was a bit further north on the GFS that would be an epic easterly for england not just the southeast UKMO looks better than previous runs but is slower than GFS

yeah things are further west but heights are also a bit further south too, i will wait till the rest of the run finishes before judging though Edit block is a lot stronger at T192 pressure might be a bit to high for most though, except for the southeast, a very cold run though and atlantic is further away, deep FI the high goes to greenland

light drizzle here and im not far from camb Edit sleeting now

this is unbelievable my lamppost outside my house has decided to stop working tonight, bloody typical anyway im only 30m ASL so im not getting excited, probably be sleet here

thats a big upgrade, i wasn't expecting anything tonight or tomorrow apart from maybe a flurry or two

so with all this talk of good of good signals, the PV etc everytihing can all be ruined by a measly shortwave

it will be sods law if UKMO was right this time after that cock up it made when it was showing cold and snow a week a go only for it to implode at the last minute

i do look at other locations but i don't live there do i, also call me selfish but i don't care if its -4 in leeds, like im sure you wouldn't care if i had 8 inches of snow and you got nothing, just telling it like it is

i know its all about lag affect, but nights at end of november are way shorter than end of April, so going from 2c at 3pm today to only -1c tonight is not a big difference, although it will cloud over at about 4am

i need to learn how to moan like you and not get slated for it lol

it was only 2c here today, pretty decent, but shame the nights won't be that cold, only -1 tonight forecast, hardly notable for the end of november, i get colder nights at the end of april in some years

can you explain to me why the GFS is wrong and the ECM is right at T120 ?

spot on, you were right, although that potent spell in early feb was decent for me, but it only lasted about 5 days the rest of the winter was total crap

the timeframe from that chart i posted is irrelevant because im saying that kind of chart can happen, i have seen quite a few ensembles members like that this week and last, my point is we could see a fat greenland high and still be in average or just below average temps, if you have a look at the uppers on that run they are not that cold apart from the north, if we get a pressure rise to the south who cares if there is a lot of northern blocking about still because it won't benefit us that much, like the chart i posted showed, anyway im not saying thats gonna happen im just saying it could happen, if we got a west based NAO or blocking that is too far north, then the teleconnections will still be technically correct because there is blocking, just sadly other things don't fall into place for our island and we might get nothing just to clarify my point, that whole run on that ensembles member i posted is not very cold and tell me where is the raging easterly,despite a nice greenie high, the flow looks very slack with uppers at about -4 its all conjuncture anyway plus i agree with polar warsaw and Crewe, people on here want snow, not a few chilly days of dry cold, people make out that this current spell is unheard of in December when its actually not, if we had dry ice days then at least that would be good for now

http://modeles.meteo...-2-1-336.png?18 look at that wonderful greenie high, but then look at our island, nothing special, people need to stop obsessing about the state of the vortex because too many things need to go right for us, if this happens we could not be more unlucky, its not actually bad for the north ,if you run through the rest of the run, but there is no proper cold really, and there is no strong easterly or northerly blast, just slack cold conditions a bit like now

thanks, i love snow as much as anyone, im not a WUM, when i see good charts in the reliable time frame i get excited, i don't get excited at "potential" at T180

can someone tell me where this powerful arctic high is, because i can't see one in the reliable time frame, and even if there is one its not having a real affect on our island for next week your right Zakos, there is no strong block, its just a ridge to the north west now, but the models were showing a stronger block some days ago, so my belief on the models overestimating heights SOMETIMES holds some validity

great post Azores Hi not sure i like your name though lol

yeah i did say it wasn't nationwide, but here it was still a decent cold spell albeit i only had 3 inches it was the hard frosts that were impressive i keep hearing that last winter was awful, from people on here close to my area, no the majority of the 90s and 00s were awful i know its only november/early december, but this cold snap coming up is nothing compared to feb of this year

we acutally had quite a potent cold spell in feburary this year, ok so it wasn't a snowfest, and it wasn't nationwide, but i recorded -13c and a few -7c minimums in that spell, people seem to forget that and classed is as a totally mild winter if we had to wait till February again for a decent cold spell then i suspect that it will soon be forgotten again if it only lasted a week like this year its best if snow and cold is spread out over three months, a 10 day spell in dec, jan and feb would suit me, so 30 days in total, is that too much too ask ?

but do you still rate the 80s as better than 2009 and 2010, dec 2010 was very good here but that was because the previous decade was total crap so even the 6 inches i got felt like a proper pasting in 2010

true but blocking does not guarantee uk cold and snow, so we could see a big fat greenie high, and we could still be on the mild side of it if other things don't fall into place, i saw plenty of examples of this in the ensembles over the past couple of weeks theres isn't an ensemble archive is there ?

do you think 2010 was overrated, it was pretty good here, but its nothing compared to 1963 or 47, or even some snowy spells in the 80s although i was too young to remember but i have photos of it 87

yes the NH is better this year, but people have been saying that all month and what have we gained from it ? nothing, i think people take too much notice of the NH and don't see whats actually happening on this island

some realism at last no its not Bartlett stuff, but its just a nornal cold snap and us greedy lot want more than a few chilly days