Snowy Easterlies

ECM not bad at t96 better than the 12z everything further west Edit @mucka, yes i am a pretty hardcore model watcher too, so i will probably still view these charts everyday even if we had an raging PV

lol, who knows the ECM might show a proper arctic blast at 240, will people go through this all over again and watch the models a lot for another week and hope the "potential" comes to fruition

yeah ECM will probably show an undercutting low or something now thats the best we can hope for, cold uppers are crucial too, as i said those dark blue 500mb charts can give a false illusion, i mean look at the UKMO T120 chart, it looks like low pressure over us and it looks a cold chart but will there be any snow?, i don't think so it will be dry probably, then the MidAtlantic ridge topples at T144, that is such a common synoptic i hate that synoptic pattern

yep permutation 1 does look good, if the op showed that i would be more confident, but as you said only 3 members out of 20 show a slider, permutation 1 is also better than the UKMO at T144

wow i admire your optimism or is that sarcasm lol, if we are lucky to get attacked by a front at night time then more places could see snow, i can't see any snow during daytime with these uppers and dewpoints, the charts flatter to decive there may be a lot of blues on the 500mb charts but uppers are nothing special except for scotland, and only briefly good for the rest of the UK, also as i said where is the precipitation for this weekend ? it comes next week but then its too mild anyway

gets milder in the south by monday http://cdn.nwstatic....9/ukmaxtemp.png, albeit FI and where is the precipitation anyway? i see a few days of early winter dry cold thats all, before the the Atlantic come in, i have seen far better potential than this which hasn't even come off so i don't know why im bothering watching these charts atm, as i said maybe high ground in the north might get something but i can't see snow anywhere else however at least FI would give us a quick beasterly blast its only at T250 not long to wait

what would you call it then ? a UK high over us, or a stonking northerly or easterly, just looks like plain old atlantic over our island to me game over for me in this spell, UKMO at T144 is very average, tell me how snow would come from that chart, baring high ground in the north

HAHA we get a easterly in deep FI, but its cut off pretty quick anyway, same old story the ridge topples, but thats all conjuncture anyway

come on, we haven't seen a decent GFS run for ages now, this run may be ok for you lomond blocking is clearly weaker around the T120 mark oh look FI has potential, what a shock

who wants to bet that high to the south ends up shifting everything further north and we end up with a euro high on future runs ?

GFS is poor, we wait for the UKMO to put us out of our misery, come on guys ditch the straw clutching im afraid its a myth that the models under do blocking this is not always true might be some snow for hills on this run but that is about it, just normal cold zonality

sorry but why do people always think that GFS FI resets to default? that is not always true, how about it may be right albeit not that extreme, like GFS FI shows, heights try to build and yet again the ridge flattens think we are clutching at straws here people regarding the early to medium timeframe

is that height rises at T240, ere we go again no point talking about that as these models can't even agree at T96 and T120, useless the lot of them

before we all praise the ECM lets not forgot that the GFS is hideous, but i suppose the GFS is deemed useless if it shows mild, the good news is that in the earlier timeframe ECM is an improvement the bad news is by 168 it all goes wrong anyway

an improvement at T144 but its still not great tbh, but still time for upgrades

upgrade in the earlier timeframe from the ECM well well well

yep best wait till ECM comes out, if it backs the UKMO is it game on again or just another false dawn ?

yep its a kick in the proverbials yet again, i don't know why we put ourselves through it, we have 3 or 4 more months of this as well UKMO is being stubborn lets pray the ECM comes on board

agree crewe cold, people say that the models always underestimate northern blocking that is not always the case infact this is about the third time this autumn that blocking hasn;t really made it properly to greenland, before it topples over us i may have a short memory but when was the last time we had a proper arctic blast ? and i don;t mean that half baked attempt in october, we can't even get a northerly toppler now 2010 and 2009 were proper cold spells but i remember us getting lots of topplers before that even in novembers

there is no uglier site than the PV ramping up and Azores high ridging in, i hope for anything but this, even anticyclonic gloom i would take we always get the same old synpotics,

yeah the ensembles are shocking it may as well be winter 2011 again, all these supposed good signals on the strat thread im reading so what is going wrong ?

true you have a point, dunno why i said that, im just a bit peed of with these models right now

GFS control run backs the op oh dear, UKMO will either be king or it will be crucified and lose all credibility

GEM is pretty poor too tbh although slightly better than yesterdays edit scrap that GEM is woeful in FI

yep agree mate if the ECM sticks to its guns the UKMO will have to back down the GFS is hideous lets be honest