Snowy Easterlies

yep, we might get a dusting overnight in april, but before that uncle barty is here to stay, might as well give up model watching now

pretty simple answer, this is the UK and those warmer synoptics, for example zonailty or the azores high ridging in are far more common than a raging easterly, so easy to understand the pessimism not sure if the 18z is better tbh the low looks further east to me, plus people seem to think that the models are always useless with scandi highs when thats not always the case, sometimes the low does power through and that is the end of that

the 18z decided to stay sober tonight and churns out mediocrity i respect Steve's input but i think he should wait until a run is completed before getting carried away

whats with the small font do you mind making it bigger please ? personally im not getting carried away by these charts we all know blocking dosen't always mean cold and snow, only time will tell

i want snow as much as anyone but this year more people on here seem to be more confident if good charts pop up in fI when usually people wouldn't get carried away with good charts in FI we need to face facts in the reliable the ECM is mediocre, yes FI is better but lets not take it as gospel please, its clearly a downgrade from the 00z however to counter that its only one run, im completely unbiased

uppers are about -8, so cold enough for snow i would think, but of course these charts are in deep FI, it would be a great end to the month if it came off though

ECM looks good from a NH perspective, in terms of scandi blocking, but it doesn't really deliver anything for us does it, unless of course things develop down the line ?

7c is 4 degrees below the november average, that wouldn't be classed as very cold would it yes 14c is mild but its not unheard of in november when this sort of pattern is quite common at this time of the year, these temps are hardly uncommon at this time of the year, i don't understand why people get shocked when its mild in november, this is the uk, anyway apologies for being off topic

how is 13-14c very mild for November, its very common for it to be 14c in november its not january now is it, the charts look pretty awful to me and i can't see any optimism right now, we can talk about all these "supposed good signals" all we like and that the vortex might split in FI, but the fact is euro high trash is staring us in the face yet again, its just like last year, and until i see good charts in the reliable time frame then i won't be getting my hopes up

What is causing the strat to cool rapidly, this happened last year as well, i hope its not a trend for future autumn and winters, also will we get a strat warming this winter?

yep roll on summer

yep same old same old, Euro highs get downgraded in summer and upgraded in autumn/winter i guessed the models would do this and im a mere novice, but I've seen this all before, the lows end up further north than originally shown anyway there are a few ensembles that go for northern blocking

i only got about 70 blackberries this year, that means Uncle Barty is certain to stay with us until march, then he will hibernate again until november, repeat every year

actually i would say this run looks bad, but i suppose its the 18z and people will choose to ignore it and say its only one run, lets hope for a better 00z even though the 18z shows some sort of northerly, blocking doesn't look as strong as it did on the 12z, anyway the past few runs have been good but its all been in deep FI so no shock things chop and change

leaves finally turning yellow now, no doubt nothing will change next week as it will be mild, who knows might seem some blossom lol

yep agree you can always count on the good old euro high turning up in autumn, low pressure systems getting shunted further north as the time gets closer and the south is left with bland grey skies, or bog standard partly cloudy weather and a brisk SW breeze, zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

also to me it seems like people have more faith or blind faith in FI this year, usually if we see good charts in FI people would say its at T260 or T280 don't believe it, now people sound certain that something is brewing at that range

yes and that chart i picked out from last year looked like heights were going to build, but then they collapsed and the PV raged and raged, so lets hope its not the same this year with heights trying to build later in the month leading us all up the garden path only for them to get blasted away

http://modeles.meteo...nh-0-156.png?12 http://modeles.meteo...-11-15-12-0.png i thought people said we were worse off this time last year compared to this year, the PV looks weaker last year, but what do i know though later in the month it did strengthen

Bad news by Chio on the strat thread time to get the prozac out, unless you choose to ignore him and believe GP's thoughts

ah well i can't find them but there were many GFS runs showing us to have a stonking easterly even for mid march this year, when some people on here think we can't get easterlies in march, as the continent has warmed up sadly many of those stonking runs were showing in FI and of course it never happened, Feb 1991 blizzard can back me up on that

i know but november does not feel like a wintry month to me whatsoever it feels like autumn, as guess what it is autumn, the trees around here are still in leaf, although they are starting to turn yellow now, its all psychological, people just want winter to get a move on now so they think it should always be cold from now on, its the same in mid feb people want spring to get a move on so if we see 15c they think spring is here, and lose interest if a cold snap in march arrives, when an easterly would probably be better in early march than it would right now, as the uppers would be colder i can show people some GFS runs from last march to prove that, although the march easterly it was showing never came off

lets be honest here we can stereotype all we want, but we can see temps of 15c at xmas, remember last year, and we can see temps of 9c in june just like this year and snow in april

it might have only been 11c here yesterday but it still felt pleasant to me in the sun, and i suspect next week i will be wearing just a light jacket when it gets up to 14c

off topic but i can't stand it when the weather presenters have a big smile on their face, by telling us its going to be mild for the foreseeable but i suppose thats what joe public wants to hear isn't it.,