Snowy Easterlies

yep agree with this post im a firm believer in the law of averages, we haven't seen a northerly tracking jet and euro high since march i think, we have seen many months of northern blocking and it has to run out of steam at some point, if we just came off the back of 6 months of a northerly jet and azores high i would be confident for the winter as i would hope a pattern change would be around the corner by now we have to remember the azores high and zonailty is the norm its not gonna stay away forever, northern blocking is not the norm, well apart from summers they are typically i remember people kept saying last year "its only november stop moaning" then looked what happened, i prey to god history doesn't repeat itself we could have a winter like the mid noughties perhaps with a few northerly topplers but thats just a wild guess but in truth the optimists could be wrong to slate the pessimists and the pessimists could be wrong to be over pessimistic nobody knows what will happen, its a cliche but its the truth

And those moaners were right about last winter, so lets not have "its only november posts" again this year, of course im not saying it will be like last year and if we got raging zonailty it could be replaced by a scandi high 5 days down the line, but we all know how stubborn the PV and azores high can be and if that sets up shop it, well it don't bare thinking about

here's another example 7th november plain old bog standard synoptics zzzzzzzzz http://modeles.meteo...-6-1-192.png?18 12th november this happens if it were the 12th december would that bring snow ? http://modeles.meteo...-6-1-312.png?18 shame they will change come the 00z runs last year we were stuck in a rut with a raging PV for ages and everyday was groundhog day and people kept telling us "its only november don't worry" and look what happened nothing decent came until feb, so lets hope its not going to be the same this winter, i would prefer winter to be spread out over three months, not all in one little spell in feb even though it was potent i would like snow and cold for 2 weeks in dec, 2 weeks in jan and 2 weeks in feb, 6 cold weeks out of 12 and the rest can be mild, is that too much to ask for ?

the azores high is a common synoptic though, so odds are it will come around again, 62.63 winter is a one off so what are the odds on that happening this winter we haven't got a greenland high right now its more like a canada high i don't see any yellows around greenland atm no i don't expect snow in october but i would like it to remain chilly/cold, of course i expect a mild spell but its not knowing how long a mild spell will last for that worries me, if its 2 weeks thats fine but i hope its not 2 months or more

a positive NAO would help aid an azores high and i agree with phil, yes we can be in a dreaded pattern and then 5 days later northern blocking can appear out of no where, i have seen the archives, but sometimes i have positive days and sometimes i have negative days, and tonight was a negative one, hence the moan, because last nights 00z looked very good albeit there was actually no cold air over us but there was plenty of northern blocking and today it gets downgraded

we can't even get a greenland high when the PV is weak, this is the second failed attempt already, whats it gonna be like in winter when the PV is stronger, of course this is not a winter is over post yes im not expecting a 62/63 winter, but i just fear once we get set into a mild zonal period it will stick around for ages and ages, who knows what will happen though, one minute the experts on here tell us things are looking good the next minute its bad news

ok thanks, i hate it when i see those greenlandhigh/ midatlantic ridges topple over us time and time again, i know its still to early for snow esp for me but the same old synoptics end up winning out more often than not saying that though GFS 18z is not that mild

exactly and tbh the Azores high is overdue its presence on us, as we haven;t seen much of it since guess when? oh yeah last winter, who knows how long it could establish itself for though, 2 weeks, 4 weeks, 8 weeks 4 months ????

I am just a bit frustrated thats all, where else am i supposed to air annoyance, show me then i will post there and yes its only october but we said that last year didn;t we

models are rubbish tonight the same old synoptics turn up again, boring old flattened ridge, the 00z last night showed better northern blocking, so yet again it was just a false dawn, i don't know how many disappointments i can take over the next few months from these charts

the dark doesn't bother me at all like it does with the i want it to be daylight all the time brigade, i don't suffer SAD or get down about it, however now i don't get a chance to go to my allotment in the evenings as its dark, even though i don't grow much in the winter, i like it when it gets dark early if we just had some snow fall during the afternoon though and there is no chance of it melting from the sun. anyway the main part of the day is still light, its not like it gets light at 11am and dark at 3pm is it, well apart from the shetland isles maybe

hmmm, after an upgrade on the overnight runs, the 12z GFS looks like its want to collapse that mid atlantic ridge over us, like it was showing on yesterdays 12z runs, garden path springs to mind UKMO looks a bit better for the weather to remain chilly, but im not qualified enough to judge what would happen after T144

How can the UKMO be so different at day 6 compared to the GFS, whichever model is wrong it will lose its credibility for me, but then again the model which is wrong will probably be right another time so it will regain my trust we are all fickle

that pesky azores high wants to wake up from its long hibernation now

people have got bored just talking about snow i suppose, and now they want to see snow, i mean proper snow not what some saw on friday not long to wait now, by mid nov anyone could see snow under decent synoptics, not just high ground or the north

What a shock to the system this chilly snap is, tbh im not sure if i want a cold winter now, i am a fan of snow, not cold, but obviously you need the cold in place for it to snow, i couldn't get out of bed this morning as it was so cold and the northerly wind was blasting at my window,

maybe a chance of a few flurries for me tonight but im too far west probably, plus im only at 90m asl

blimey the ECM at 168 don't look to bad but is that northern blocking strong enough ?

So next week just looks like normal Atlantic weather nothing to get excited about really but at least its not Eurohigh trash weather

i think even those dimwits from The only way is Essex have noticed the difference in daylight hours by now, i understand some on here won't have a clue who im talking about

How do most places manage a foot every winter ?? i certainly don't get a foot of snow every winter, dec 2010 was the best i had for about 15 years and that was 7 inches im at a lower elevation than you too

in north west spain sunrise is currently at 9 am, do they moan about the dark mornings ?

It looks like northern blocking has gone on the 18z GFS although we stay in cool atlantic air, but i hope we don't see some sort of pressure rise from the south as often happens

yeah i suppose its good to come up with different ideas, i think the clocks should go forward to BST at the start of march, rather than the end, but if we were to go to CET then we would have to wait till the end of march as the mornings would still be dark in early march on CET, then the clocks would have to go back end of september, the national holiday sounds good but i can't see that happening, plus your right this debate does come up every year, but lets be honest we adjust quite quickly to the change and we soon get used to the dark, of course though their is the health and safety aspect of it, which is the main problem but there was a trial in the 60s in which we stayed on BST and not many liked it, so for the foreseeable i can't see anything changing

If we went to CET time when would we put the clocks back ? if we were on CET time right now it would still be dark at 8 30 in the morning, maybe we could be on CET time from march to september but then what do we do go back to BST or GMT, im afraid CET could never work in this country but i can see us staying on BST at some point Also no point in having CET this country don't do things late in the evening like they do on the continent, when do you see football games starting at 9 or 10 pm here, in spain they eat at about 9pm, what is the point of it being light till 11pm no one goes anywhere at that time, most are sitting inside watching tele or going to bed