Snowy Easterlies

yes thats true may can feel like summer but how often does november feel like winter, not very often, just because it gets dark earlier in november than it does in February means nothing, its all about lag effect and in feb seas are colder, therefore its easier to tap into cold weather then

never heard of this model how reliable is it ?

lets hope those factors come into play then

What are your reasons for this

Whats with all this zonal talk?, charts look dry, mild and settled for next week, for most areas. yet again synoptics we would like in summer albeit not the perfect summer synoptics, come at the wrong time of year and vice versa happens in summer, yes FI looks autumnal but who wants to bet these systems will end up further north again keeping us with high pressure over us or near us

a lot of ensembles members show a weaker vortex in FI but i hope something like this don't happen from a IMBY point of view http://modeles.meteo...12-1-384.png?18 bad luck eh, but that can happen

im at about 30m asl anyway ensembles are coming out slowly, this is about the time of year i start to check every single member lol

i live about 800 yards away from a river so you can tell i have no elevation lol, but 4 or 5 inches of snow is enough to satisfy me if it happened a few times in the winter

only got a dusting in 09, you don't need to worry though i bet there are a lot of synoptics setups that would deliver for your area,

i think my area got pasted in jan 87, shame i didn't see it as i was in my mothers womb at the time, but i can't remember a decent easterly in my life tbh but if the setup is good enough i believe they can deliver for our areas

tbh i can't even remember any snow from an easterly here, i don't know why i even called my self snowy easterlies, snow here usually only comes from fronts coming up from the south

bedford is usually a poor place for snow, but in 2010 i got a big dumping, mind you i got lucky as the band of snow stalled right over me, had i been 15 miles further north i wouldn't have seen anything, luton just down the road from here does far better as its much higher up

looks like a west based NAO on the GFS 18z in FI, think that is the third run out of the last four to show this, typical everything is either to far west or to far east, of course things are subject to change as ever

i hope they are right but im not gonna hang on to their word just because its what i want to hear, there have been many times where they have been wrong, egg on face springs to mind, im sure they have been right lots of times too but i never notice it for some reason, if they keep on consistently forecasting cold over the next couple of weeks for end of nov/early dec, then i will begin to have confidence in them though tbh i don't really use the metoffice site anymore since they changed the layout of the site last year

just my opinion but im not a fan of the metoffice how often are they right? they can't even forecast a snow event for the next day right sometimes however i hope they are right of course this time for late nov

12c to 14c in november is not very mild its a bit above average esp for the south, i don't know why people think november should be cold, albeit it can be cold but most of the time its not, so 12-14c is hardly a shock as that is what the temp usually is under a zonal/euro high pattern

you won't get much there either if we have a rampant PV and a bartlett, best head to greenland

we should be on CET in winter. so it would get light at 10am and dark at 6pm, i hate mornings anyway so i wouldn't care if it was dark

i wonder when the earliest time a beast from the east could deliver snow to us under -10 uppers ? it would have to be a special and very rare synoptic set up i suppose to happen in early nov i take it ?

yeah true we don't want an easterly now its too early, best wait till late nov, i would be happy with a frosty, foggy spell now, but sadly anticyclones are not common in November

people are not writing off winter, they just worry when they see the charts showing a zonal outlook as it can be hard to shift, lets be honest we are overdue a mild zonal spell of weather, some of us had a decent cold spell last feb, but most classed it as a bad winter because it was mild up till then, so i would like snow and cold to be spread out evenly over winter, yes i know its not winter yet, and yes it is too early to be panicking but if we are still in this situation come end of november then we should start to worry as december could be a write off if the models continue to show zonal crap i hope GP is right, if he thinks end of nov could get interesting, then i wouldn't care less if most of november was very mild its all good being all positive and churning out cliches but we can only go on the current state of the weather, no amount of hope casting will change that, remember last year people kept saying "its only november don't panic" then look what happened, nothing decent till feb, i hope history don't repeat it self, however expectations have gone through the roof because of recent years, a lot of winters that i can remember, snow didn't come till February here, and i suspect 5 years ago nobody would be worrying about winter in early november

we've had a lot of northern blocking for the past 6 months, i hope we don't see a strong PV and a northerly tracking jet for the next 6 months now, they do say mother nature balances her self out

it might just be me but when i look at the NH charts they can make northern blocking look better than it actually is, because then when i look at the normal European charts for example a greenie high don't look as good. and yes you can see most of greenland on it

maybe best to take a break from model watching now for a few days, as its back to plain old bog standard synoptics zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz no doubt i will end up checking every run though as it only takes a quick scan of the charts to see what the general pattern is, but no need to study every aspect of it like i would do if a cold blast was on the way tbh i don't mind a milder spell now really, but i would hope to see a big change after mid nov when its realistically possible for there to be proper snow in my neck of the woods

why do the yanks put their clocks back? next week in some parts sunrise will be at 6 15 am and sunset at 16 50 pm, no need for it to get light that early maybe they have to because in other parts like houston, sunrise is currently at 7 45, its a bit like here, in the south and east the mornings are not that dark right now but its because of the scots and irish that we have to put our clocks back, so we have to suffer in the evenings cos of them i can't see see the scots and northern irish ever agreeing to stay on BST in the winter, and thats joe public not the farmers, so until they get Independence the whole UK will have to go back to GMT in winter