Snowy Easterlies

i benefit from GMT is felt from 7am to 8am in winter, not 6am to 7am, its still dark at the time anyway, in december and january it usually starts getting light here about 7 45am, with BST time it would be about 8 45, its much worse in scotland and ireland,

northerlies are useless here but at least we get some hard frosts

take a guess lol

i know the NH doesn't look normal but there is far to much emphasis on northern blocking on here im afraid, the fact is this island just looks to have normal autumn weather next week, this weekend looks quite chilly though yes ECM FI looks blocked but its FI so until this northern blocking has a real impact on this island, i don;t care how much blocking there is over greenland or the NH, as we all know northern blocking doesn't always mean cold for us, i know it dosen't look milder in the near future but as i said these lows that are shown for next week could end up further north, meaning the south becomes milder, i remember nick sussex saying this often happens and he was right as it happened last autumn and winter

just looks like normal atlantic conditions to me, plus don't these lows always end up further north when the time gets closer and the south ends up with boring high pressure which just brings in mild air and cloud, whilst its wet in the north and west

it won't really be light at at 6am though, especially in the the north and west, plus in a couple of weeks it will still be dark at 7 am again, the time when many people get up, tbh honest though there are advantages and disadvantages with GMT and BST and we can't really win either way we just have to put up with it, im used to it by now anyway its not as if its a new thing, it happens every year, also for the main part of the day its light, its not like we live in northern russia and its only light for about 4 hours a day.

Daylight is over rated in winter, what can you do anyway with the extra hour of light in the evenings if the clocks stayed on BST time, its too cold, muddy and wet most of the time, i prefer them going back as at least it will be light again in the mornings for a while, its hard enough getting out of bed as it is anyway and the darkness doesn't help atm We are told by some politicians that we can do more things if clocks stayed on BST, what are these "things" then ?

blimey, even lands end would get pasted from that chart PS Good news from GP so i hear ?

Whilst a 1962/63 winter sounds fun, lets be honest feeling cold and frozen is horrible, its easy to sit in your nice warm room looking out of the window at a blizzard or heavy snow falling, but when its not snowing and just freezing cold and you have to leave the house for work early in the morning and you get into your frozen car, or when you get out of the shower and you feel freezing, then thats when i start to get a bit annoyed about the cold I am a fan of snow not cold, but of course i put up with the cold if there is plenty of snow, if we had a month of cold frosty high pressure i would like it for a couple of weeks but then i will be begging for zonality to return. if there is no sign of snow on the way

yeah in winter it might be cold due to surface cold, but now it could still produce warm conditions, as the continent is still warm

yes early Nov 2010 was mild, but the switch to cold isn't guaranteed that it will happen again this year, mild more often than not wins out in the UK, so i can understand the negativity over the charts showing ugly charts albeit its FI im personally not worried yet but i will be in about a month, if the signals start looking bad

we said that last year "its only october, its only november there's plenty of time for cold" , once the PV sets up and that horrible Euro high it can be hard to shift and can eat away weeks of winter, of course we can be in raging zonality like in november 2009 and then all of a sudden it gets cold, but people are allowed to worry if they want, who knows though maybe this time if a euro high set up even if it lasted for 8 weeks we would only be in mid december and by then a pattern change could happen i personally don't mind if we had raging zonailty now, but i just hope we don't have summer style synoptics like last autumn yet again later this month or in november, why do the best synoptics always happen at the wrong time of year ?

lovely BBQ weather but make sure you have one before it gets dark as we will be in GMT time http://modeles.meteo...nh-0-384.png?18 GFS 18z FI is deja vu Autumn 2011, lets hope its totally wrong

i would gladly take a mild november if i could guarantee dec and jan would be frozen solid with raging easterlies and northerlies, but sadly we have no control over the weather all we have is hope, but its hard for me to think oh its only the weather, there are better things to do in life, like what ? go out with your mates to a club or pub? you can do that at anytime of the year, like most things in life, snow doesn't come around every day so its a kick in the nuts if it doesn't happen

Agree a lot of people are harping on about the blocking now, but if this was winter would we be getting any snow? i doubt it, we will be under a southwesterly next week even with copious northern blocking

A euro high is always more likely to affect us than a Greenland high, as i said earlier euro highs can shift around a bit and we will still be generally in the same sort of weather, mild dry or wet, we can get a stonking Greenland high but still be under a southwesterly, so i do believe in the pharse of wasted synoptics in terms of greenie highs, cos what are the odds we get a repeat of it again in this country when they are rare to deliver the perfect set up, there are so many different synoptics our island can get from northern blocking yes we had northern blocking this summer but we didn't constantly get raging easterlies or northeries from it did we ? we were just under slack cool air masses a lot, though i can understand if people get negative when they see GFS FI churn out a raging PV,cos thats the norm in this country in autumn and early winter esp, i don't mean to state the obvious, but we have to make the most of northern blocking when it comes around, if people like gavin cry out for a euro high in winter he will likely get his wish as it is a common synoptic

yep sadly when you have a euro high it always means its mild or wet, you can have copious amounts of northern blocking but still end up with a southwesterly just like the models are showing at present

i've been checking out archives from like 1877 to 1900 and even then they had octobers and novembers with euro high trash and then in the winter a severe cold spell will develop, although i don't know how strong the PV was in them days

this might sound like a dumb question but did the stratosphere cool down in October 2010, because november and december still had lots of northern blocking

http://modeles.meteo...-3-0-276.png?12 http://modeles.meteo...-3-1-336.png?12 it would be just so typical if charts like these came off, although Gavin will love it of course deep FI i know

sunset is at 5:20pm at the moment in Egypt i wonder if they don't like it getting dark early ?

who is the better forecaster though, i hope GP and joe are right, i don't like what is coming from RJS, but i won't discount it just because he is forecasting a cooler stratosphere

So who do we believe then about whats in store for winter,Joe laminate floori, RJS or GP ?

Doesn't the GFS nearly always reset to default in FI, by ramping up the jet and getting rid of northern blocking though ? anyway we can't expect there to be constant northern blocking from now until when winter starts, so there is bound to be a break at some point, just hopefully not a very long break

can't remember i was born in 86, and we moved from kent to bedford in 93 lol this thread has got way to busy its only October