ChezWeather

Looks like the models took quite a few people by suprise for tonight, first PJB and now ConvectiveWeather backtracking and refining the risk area to Lincs/Yorks area Not often that a MDT goes bust for them Still fingers crossed and eagerly watching the radar

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It seems that the only reliable place to see a storm in this country is the far SE, and that's only because of the close proximity it has to the continent.

Yep, any current rainfall on the radar is associated with a warm front moving North I believe? Main storm activity will be elevated and isn't forecast to get going until tonight.

Moving away from this week for a moment, what do you guys think the general pattern will be as we move into July? Im no expert obviously so its far beyond my ability to call it, but what sort of evolution could we see from say here at 240hrs (gfs)

I'm not sure if this is a troll post or not, but anyway, storms aren't forecast until this evening/overnight http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-06-23

Update from Convective Weather, now with large MDT zone http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-06-23 Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 23 Jun 2019 - 05:59 UTC Mon 24 Jun 2019 ISSUED 06:39 UTC Sun 23 Jun 2019 ISSUED BY: Dan Longwave trough will linger over the Atlantic close to western Europe on Sunday, the southerly flow on its forward flank encouraging advection of a high Theta-W airmass. Ahead of this, an isolated heavy shower / thunderstorm is possible during Sunday afternoon / early evening in a zone from Cen S England / S + W Midlands / Wales. However, despite profiles exhibiting reasonable speed and directional shear to aid organisation, one or more warm noses may significantly restrict cloud depth and so the risk of lightning is treated with quite a low probability for now. It is more likely that outbreaks of largely dynamic rain will be falling from medium-level cloud over Wales / Midlands, associated with the warm front slowly lifting northward. A few showers are also likely in N and W Scotland, but limited in depth and so the lightning risk is considered quite low. Main thunderstorm interest is during Sunday night. By Sunday evening, frontal rain will likely already be affecting parts of SW England, Wales, W Midlands and Ireland. A lead shortwave impulse in the strong southerly flow aloft will aid ascent, coupled with isentropic upglide. CAPE values of 500-1,000 J/kg are expected, this instability being released through the course of the night. In a semi-random fashion, scattered elevated thunderstorms will develop, although there is considerable uncertainty over exactly where and when, hence a very broad SLGT area. We suspect much of the thunderstorm activity will be primarily focussed along two main Theta-E ridges. This would suggest one round over the East Midlands / Lincs / Yorks, and into NE England later in the night - this may also extend into parts of East Anglia for a time, depending on how quickly the plume destabilises (the earlier, the more widespread the risk is before moving offshore). A second area of interest would then be Wales, perhaps the W Midlands, moving NW-wards across the Irish Sea towards eastern Ireland - perhaps expanding across to NW England later in the night. Given the magnitude of CAPE/shear, lightning will tend to be very frequent with any thunderstorms that do develop, accompanied by the threat of hail, gusty winds and locally very heavy rain. Given the large uncertainty about storm placement at present, it is difficult to highlight specific areas for a MDT. We have issued one where there is better multi-model consensus, but it is acknowledged that scattered thunderstorms will develop elsewhere as well. We will continue to monitor trends throughout the day, and may issue further updates if necessary.

EURO kicking things off alot further South NetWx SR has storms over N Wales in the evening Followed by more widespread storms moving N/NE through the night

Hi Res precip models are now in range of tomorrows event AROME has storms moving N/NE during evening hours Followed by a larger mass of precip forming further North during the night

35.8c - Heathrow - Friday 28th June

Updated risk map from PJB (UKWW)

Well looking a current models/warnings I think I may be slightly too far SE here, probably going to head up into the Peak District to a high vantage point such as Stanage Edge or Holme Moss Although Euro4 does look promising for the Midlands/North in general

Plenty of support from the precip models for storms on Sunday night/Mon morning EURO4 and AROME currently not in range unfortunately GFS ICON APERGE shows nothing until 9am Monday HIRLAM only out to midnight at the moment Netweather MR going way further West

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-06-23 Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 23 Jun 2019 - 05:59 UTC Mon 24 Jun 2019 ISSUED 07:50 UTC Sat 22 Jun 2019 ISSUED BY: Dan Longwave trough will linger over the Atlantic close to western Europe on Sunday, the southerly flow on its forward flank encouraging advection of an elevated mixed layer (EML) from the Spanish Plateau towards southern Britain by Sunday night. Ahead of this, an isolated heavy shower / thunderstorm is possible during Sunday afternoon / early evening in a zone from Cen S England / S + W Midlands / Wales. However, despite profiles exhibiting reasonable speed and directional shear to aid organisation, one or more warm noses may significantly restrict cloud depth and so the risk of lightning is treated with quite a low probability for now. In fact it is probably more likely that outbreaks of largely dynamic rain will be falling from medium-level cloud over Wales / Midlands, associated with the warm front slowly lifting northward. A few showers are also likely in N and W Scotland, but with very little lightning expected. Main thunderstorm interest is during Sunday night. By Sunday evening, frontal rain will likely already be affecting parts of SW England, Wales, W Midlands and Ireland - behind which advection of an increasingly warm, moist low-level airmass will occur during the overnight hours. A lead shortwave impulse in the strong southerly flow aloft will aid ascent, coupled with isentropic upglide as the EML arrives. MLCAPE values of 500-1,000 J/kg are expected, this instability being released through the course of the night. With time, scattered elevated thunderstorms - initially over parts of SW England / S Wales / Celtic Sea / S Ireland - will become more numerous and drift north/northwestwards as the night progresses. Strong deep layer shear should help thunderstorm complexes to grow upscale into an MCS (mesoscale convective system), as coverage continues to expand eastwards across northern England during the early hours of Monday. Given the magnitude of CAPE/shear, lightning will be very frequent at times, accompanied by the threat of hail, gusty winds and locally very heavy rain. This extended outlook provides an overview of the most likely forecast evolution during this forecast period - however destabilising plume events are often fraught with uncertainty, and it is likely certain aspects of the forecast will change as the event draws closer. However, provided guidance continues to remain relatively consistent, upgrades to higher threat levels are possible in future outlooks.

18z pushing more heat back West again

I have a feeling that i'll be suffering from a severe lack of sleep next week, no time off work and likely pulling all-nighters on Sunday and Monday

From PJB on UKWW: Convective Outlook / Advisory Sunday 23rd June 2019 Period 15:00 BST Sunday 23rd June until 13:00 Monday 24th June 2019 Issued Friday 21st June Paul Blight Outlook / Advisory Risks Red Box = Moderate to High Risk (60%) of T-Storms developing generating high electrical discharges in the form of frequent C/G Lightning and Torrential Rainfall Rates Purple Box = High Risk (70%) of Thunderstorms developing and moving north during the late evening and overnight into Monday, organising into an organised convective system with frequent lightning, torrential rain, gusts to 55-60Knts . Primary Risks - Travel Delays & Disruption, Local Flooding & Power Disruption. Detail Broad upper level trough moves towards the UK at the same time as a strong deep layer ridge develops over the Western Mediterranean, this 700mb ridge and 850mb ridge is quite pronounced and during the early part of next week extends upwards in the atmosphere to become a significant area of warm well subsided blocking air. The first pulse of warm advection at 925mbs and 850mbs arrives during Sunday and provides the recipe for some late day development of thunderstorms as at the same time the upper trough at 500mbs and 300mbs arrives into the west. A Southerly Jet on the eastern flank of this trough will be propagating north on the eastern side of this trough during the day, and will split later in the day to contain 2 jet Maxes. One will speed north and then NE over Scotland, and another will arrive in the SW of England overnight into Monday. As the upper trough moves closer, a shortwave trough will move north and increase the Southerly convergence at 700mbs and 500mbs up through the western and later northern parts of the UK. Along with the increase in forward velocity of the air, the deep layer shear will increase through the rest of the atmosphere along with both some directional and speed sheer and divergence aloft in the right entrance of the initial Jet core. As the Jet core splits it will move NNE and the right entrance will be taken NE across Scotland. At 850mbs there will be a steady push of warm advection through the day on Sunday will some cooling above that. An increase in Theta-W to around 12/14C occurs early in the day and then a further advection of 16C WBPT plume arrives by the end of Sunday. At the surface daytime heating will occur and as temps approach 25-27C we then start to have the enough heating to initiate convection given the moisture aloft, and the cooling taking place through the differential thermal advection. During the afternoon streamline forecasts indicate some surface confluence and convergence will occur along the M4 or around the Severn Estuary across to the Centre of England. At the same time convergence occurs over the Southern part of Northern England, towards Merseyside and down to the West Midlands. This additional forced ascent from the surface will initiate convection and then the convection will be able to tap into the relatively strong upper level thermodynamics and kinematics, steered by the flow at 700mbs where additional southerly confluence will focus the rising air even more and 700mb/500mb vertical velocity fields indicate that the storms once developed will grow quite rapidly and head across Northern England and then able to further organise themselves given the favourable upper level venting pattern of Deep Layer Shear and the added Jet stream divergence field. The strong convective developments also able to tap into a filament of vorticity propagating north and possibly also a filament of north south vorticity lying down N/S on the eastern flank of the trough which will have swung north around the base of the trough and become aligned to the flow as it meets the developing deep layer block to the east. This favourable upper level environment will continue through to Monday morning as the storms move out into the North Sea. The UK will then sit under the left entrance region until a further area of enhanced upper level thermodynamics and Kinemetics arrives in the South and across the Channel Islands as we go into Monday night and early Tuesday. Thunderstorms are highly likely to develop from 15:00 around the Welsh Marches, North of the M4 Corridor and across the Midlands up towards Merseyside and Greater Manchester. These then growing and advecting northwards as the evening progresses and gathering further organisation. Frequent lightning developing, torrential rain and as the storms gain latitude and organise then we can expect potentially SEVERE weather to develop including torrential heavy rain, giving 40-60mm & 125mm/h rainfall rates and straight-line gusts over 55knts and PROB30 of over 60knts. Strike rates over 10,000 strikes and possibly nearer to 20,000 strikes possible through the late evening and night. Hail also becomes possible. Tornado development is not likely due to the topography of where the storms will be advecting into. Once the storms are routed from the surface they will move north in the 700-800mb steering flow and be lying off the NE Coast of Scotland by Monday Morning 07:00 Primary Risks Dangerous Cloud to Ground Lightning, Torrential Rain, Local Flooding, Gusts and damage to trees. Delays and Disruption to the Power Grid and Travel Network. Further updates will be issued through Saturday and Sunday. Fig 1 - Convective Outlook / Advisory Risk Box V1 (Risk is to 13:00 Monday not 07:00) Issued Paul Blight 19.45 21st June 2019.

Do not worry my friend, as Ben mentioned, we are talking about SB Cape here anyway Fear not, there will be plenty of opportunities for storms in the upcoming week

What did you expect? they were absolutely through the ceiling, showing values that chasers in the heart of Tornado Alley would be happy to see!

I wouldn't be worried by what any computer generated forecasts are showing, keep an eye on what the people in the know are forecasting instead, i.e ConvectiveWeather, our very own Nick on Netweather, Tony Gilbert on UKWW, ESTOFEX and some of the very knowledgeable people in this thread etc. Exciting times ahead, with storm potential starting as early as Sunday by the looks of things!

Early forecast out from ConvectiveWeather http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-06-23 Day 4 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 23 Jun 2019 - 05:59 UTC Mon 24 Jun 2019 ISSUED 19:56 UTC Thu 20 Jun 2019 ISSUED BY: Dan Longwave trough will linger over the Atlantic close to western Europe on Sunday, the southerly flow on its forward flank encouraging advection of an elevated mixed layer (EML) from the Spanish Plateau towards southern Britain by Sunday night. Ahead of this, an isolated heavy shower / thunderstorm is possible during Sunday afternoon / early evening in a zone from Cen S England / S + W Midlands / Wales. However, despite profiles exhibiting reasonable speed and directional shear to aid organisation, one or more warm noses may significantly restrict cloud depth and so this is risk is treated with quite a low probability for now. A few showers are also likely in N and W Scotland, but with very little lightning expected. However, main interest is during Sunday night. By Sunday evening, frontal rain will likely already be affecting parts of SW England and Ireland, and increasingly so across Wales and the Midlands - behind which advection of an increasingly warm, moist low-level airmass will occur during the overnight hours. A lead shortwave impulse in the strong southerly flow aloft will aid ascent, coupled with isentropic upglide as the EML arrives, to release the increasing amount of mid-level instability. With time, scattered elevated thunderstorms - initially over parts of SW England / S Wales / S Ireland - will become more numerous and drift northwards as the night progresses. Strong deep layer shear should help thunderstorm complexes to grow upscale into an MCS (mesoscale convective system), particularly over Wales and the Midlands after midnight and then perhaps across northern England towards the latter stages of the night. This extended outlook provides an overview of the most likely forecast evolution during this forecast period - however destabilising plume events are often fraught with uncertainty, and it is very likely certain aspects of the forecast will change as the event draws closer. However, provided guidance continues to remain relatively consistent, upgrades to higher threat levels are expected in future outlooks.

July 1st 2015, a memorable day, the hottest July temp ever recorded with 36.7 at Heathrow

Here's a good couple of sites with info on June 28th 2012 for anyone interested, to me this day is THE benchmark for UK storms. https://www.stratusdeck.co.uk/28th-june-2012 https://hinckleyweatherblog.wordpress.com/2013/06/25/leicestershire-supercell-storms-of-28th-june-2012/

I hope we see some 28th June 2012 style surface based monsters, with some massive hail thrown in as well. It's been a while since we've seen really severe home grown storms

Here's something you don't see every day...