ChezWeather

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-07-26 Some interest tomorrow before the main risk on Friday

The real question now is could we be about to break multiple summer records? The monthly CET record of 19.7 looks unlikely to be breached. However it looks likely that this July 2018 will be joining the exclusive club of 19c+ CET months. But, if we have an above average August, the summer record could well be threatened.

Some pretty insane CAPE values showing towards the end of next week. All way out in FI at the moment but the plume potential is there for the taking ?️?️?️ I've now gone 2 whole years without an overhead thunderstorm and almost a whole year without even a rumble of thunder!

Apocalyptic sky to the SW, no lightning unfortunately just heavy rain

18z GFS vs ECM at 144

We don't desperately need rain, we desperately need a heatwave lasting until the end of August GFS 6z looking good up to +240

What are everyone's thoughts on conditions after July 14th? Certainly nothing nailed down yet, GFS 0z looked settled, 6z showing unsettled. ECM out to 240 looking good

Was there not a breakdown showing for this week/next week which eventually diminished into nothing? Or have I just imagined that in hopefulness of no breakdown occuring until September

Im in Cornwall for the week commencing the 14th July, which means that a breakdown is imminent followed by a week of Atlantic rubbish before the heat returns! You heard it here first folks ?️

Lets hope the 12z GFS is over egging this feature Way out in week 3 mind

Good forecast from Gavsweathervids Looks to be hot and dry for the rest of the month, perhaps a slight blip for the far North around mid month, but south staying warm and dry

ECM at 240 That high will take some shifting

12z GFS keeping the heat right out to the start of week 3 Only to be taken with a pinch of salt of course, but no sign of any substantial breakdown yet!

18.9c Warm and Dry for the first 3 weeks followed by a thundery breakdown

What sort of setup would it take to break the all time monthly CET records? (July 2006 & Aug 95) Night-time Temps in these months must have been pretty damn high to give the CET average of over 19c

I think a short term blip would be welcomed by many who are wanting some much needed rainfall, lets just hope the general pattern for July is warm and sunny! Personally, id be happy with the good old "three fine days and a thunderstorm" weather ?️

July 2006 is the month to beat, this of course being the hottest CET month ever recorded with a mean of 19.7 Only 3 months have ever topped the 19c mean July 2006 (19.7) July 1983 (19.5) Aug 1995 (19.2)

Im glad you mentioned this one, because that date has been stuck in my mind for ages when trying to think of great storms and i was never sure it i had it correct or not! A cracking storm with constant lightning, probably the best i've ever witnessed. Honourable mentions would include; June 28th 2012 despite being slightly further North than the main outbreak (this day in my mind is the benchmark for UK storms, certainty in the radar era) July 19th 2014 was a great storm, frequent CGs July 1st 2015 where i sat and watched an incredible storm over Manchester and the NW from around 40 miles away September 13th 2016 storm which moved North over the Peak District, constant barrage of CG's and some fairly large hail

Ah typical! Strikes now detected South of here!

Perfect storm scenario in the UK? Easy.. 28th June 2012.

The last few years for our location have been very poor, 2014 was exceptional. My recorded thunder days below, only going back to 2013 unfortunately. 2013 - 11 2014 - 15 2015 - 7 2016 - 8 2017 - 4 2018 - 0 This week has followed that pattern, to far NE, and it now looks like we will be too far east to see anything tomorrow. The last good storm we had overhead in Chesterfield was like you say, way back in July 2015. I managed to catch the big storm that tracked over the Peak District in September 2016 but since then I've not seen anything that could be classed as a proper thunderstorm!

Retford is now on par with Newton Poppleford

Amber warning from UKMO for the SW and South Wales Also a yellow for the NW tomorrow

All the action forecast for the South again!? We're doomed!

Heres some of the main precip models for 18z tomorrow