latitude

I havent seen the forecast this morning. But as I said on my earlier post the BBC/METO have been showing temps of +5 throughout their forecast, the -5 850 line gets pushed out even on the GFS run. It looked very marginal from the start, and it seems the METO are now forecasting just that.

Only -1.8 IMBY Yatton North Somerset. Still waiting for some much colder temperatures. I was very supprised by the difference in the two forecasts from yesterday evening. Ian's forecast at 7.00 pm had temperatures below freezing on Friday showing snow for three days. At 10.30pm local and national really showed how marginal it could be. Im sure the forecasts will be different again today, but this will be very marginal for Devon. The temperature as shown on TV hits 5 degrees in Plymouth throughout the forecast. DP's will come into it, but could be very slushy. We will see....

Quite a range of temperatures, mine 4.0. One or two degrees warmer than BBC forecast. Thanks 'gottolovethisweather' for your temp. For What Its Worth, as you say. Thanks to the other members who gave me an idea of the local temperatures, for what its worth its very interesting.

And thats up on Dartmoor, so could be looking at 4.5 today?

Anyone have a temperatures for around the region? BBC going for 7 in Devon. Anyone approaching 5?

Heading your way.

And that is certainly true!

Depends if you mean 'no more rain' as in, no more flooding? Any snow will melt anyway, so flooding will be an issue.

Thanks again Ian F. Most welcome.

Well im still waiting for my first frost! The colder weather started last Saturday. To 'gotllovethisweather's delight I have just had three consequitive nights of rain. Today and into Thursday look coldish (3 degrees IMBY and 7 degrees in Devon), then what happens Friday is anyones guess. Bit of patience needed, we will probably know by tomorrows 0z.

Yes, I did quote one your posts earlier saying if the front stays out in the Atlantic its cold upgrade for the SW. Hopefully this will happen, that could be mean no snow event, but keeping the cold and dry weather is more important if you ask me. So if the front does push in, as I said it coud be a wintry mix then rain (06z).

Just got a feeling the block wont be strong enough for us in the SW with the colder uppers being mixed out giving us a wintry mix to start then to changing to rain. I would of liked to see the 06z match last nights 18z. As I said before the 12z will be interesting. Taking the 06z alone, the East will do well again.

Oh and just to add, think this thread is the best place for discussing the model output for the SW from now on. The Mod thread is so IMBY right now.

Minimum temp last night +0.9. Looking for below freezing tonight.

If the front on Friday stays in the Atlantic and slides into France, its an upgrade for longer lasting cold. The 06z pushes the -5 850 line well out of the SW, and the undercut doesent seem to occur. Interesting 12z coming up later.

Three nights of rain in a row now, from this so called cold spell!

heavy moderate rain in yatton north somerset

That stuff coming SW out of Wales is interesting. Ian said above 200m (Mendips) Again, im harping on now, its just not cold enough at lower levels. Just my opinion, its 2.8 IMBY.

Very much appreciate your posts here Ian. But due to this being a public forum posts like that will happen. Please stick around Ian!

Thats right, its all about the undercut! Could be slushy initially though. (Cornwall, Devon)

Again, thats Thursday at 7.00, no PPN forecast then, not until Friday at 3.00am (GFS). Nearly 24 hrs later. GFS Temps for above pic.....not exactly cold is it? Thats showing the MINIMUM temp. This could be why Ian F wasnt sure about settling snow.

That chart is for Thursday morning, according to the GFS there isnt any PPN about, but it probably shows a warmer sector. What im getting at is, we are supposed to be in a cold period, and in the SW it isnt that cold. The chart was just an example. This cold spell was supposed to of started last Saturday, by Thursday with all the charts and hype that has been posted on this forum I would of imagined -4 or -5 IMBY. Anyway, again just my opinion and thoughts. Hopefully Friday then, due to the undercut on UKMO we get some coder air, especially for those in Devon and Cornwall to see some white stuff.

My last post talked about the temperatures in the SW, I found this chart for Thursday at 7.00am. Its not even that cold in the SW.

Ian F says the UKMETO and ECM is preferd. Also said that any snow on Friday might not stick/settle in places... "Indeed it is. Will await analysis of 12z later this evening. Colleagues also cautioning about extent of any settling at low-levels later in week even if it occurs. But it's miles away for any certainty and for sure, any regional (let alone sub-regional) take on this isn't worth paper written on." Its probably due to the temperatures just not being cold enough in the SW during this week up to Friday. Sometimes it better to have intrenched cold for a number of days before any snow arrives. Today reached 6.1 and think temps IMBY will be around 3 degrees tomorrow unitl Friday...it just dosent seem cold enough for proper settling snow. Only the slushy wet stuff that has been seen today. But thats just my view.

Yes thats the GFS though.