latitude

We had a slight shift on the 06z, so lets hope the short wave drops down the country in an even better position.

But thats exactly what you want? Thats what you said in your original post....

Yes but dosent mean it will have any effect on us. This cold spell could be the only one of this winter, its the here and now so looking two weeks ahead to something in la la land is ridiculous.

Some have thrown the towel in by the sounds of it and writing off the potential cold! Things can change yet....... Wheres 'gotolovethisweather'? Or is it just me he bullys?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map

Dont use Metcheck. That changes with every model run from the GFS.

For the SW region we need the cold air to be further West again on the 12z, 18z and tomorrows 0z. We need some consistancy between now and Monday so we get a good idea of where we stand. If the cold upper air wont push further West on Monday, there could be a lot of damp conditions about throughout next week in our region and not the cold spell anticipated. Lots to play for still. Just some model agreement would be good! But saying that the GFS and ECM do agree on milder air in the SW. I want the GEM

Nice post, ties in with my thinking. Glad you agree with me. My attitude for the latest output from the 06z GFS is an upgrade for snow on Monday with the cold air holding on longer. I wont look past Monday until tomorrows 12z. And just to make it clear, I only post what model shows, cold, hot, wet, snow, upgrades, downgrades, flips and flops. I have no agender. Take it from me I want a foot of snow and drifts.....but try to just talk about what the models show on face value without any cold or mild emotion.

True. Difference here is we are much more uncertain of rain or snow due to upper air temperatures. The -5 line was out past Cornwall during most of the 2010 cold spell.

Yes its always 'potential'. Wish those ECM charts were more +24 than 120. The GFS is so messy, a clean movement to cold on the operational would be nice.

Wednesday? Looks like rain according to latest output my friend.

It is, better run?? Slightly better, but heights to Greenland being stopped. Better for snow prospects Monday.

Slight adjustments make such a difference. Seems to get weaker and weaker all the time. Well earlier it as Bang on Bristol to Reading, now jumped of east at 21.00 Sat, then more PPN towards Bristol later in the night. Forget the models now for Saturday, its all down to radar watching if you ask me!

The temperatures seem on the up too. Will wait and see what happens. The ECM and GFS downgrading for our region today, and we are getting very close to T-0. Could be the case our region gets the mild air as GP suggested, then we will have to wait until the end of next week to see if the a colder push comes back our way. Dont fancy watching the models chasing the cold for another 7 days. Anyway lots can happen. I watched ITV this morning, and the weather girl who left BBC had massive graphics up say 'BEAST FROM THE EAST'. I hadent seen any model output at that time, but thought........oh no.

The graphics I saw this morning for Monday were just cloud. But isnt the front arriving late Monday? According to the GFS its very very borderline IMBY. Feel very sorry for Cornwall and Devon people, it hasent really shown anything at all for those regions except across the high ground.

Any link to Ians forecast for those who missed it?

Well ive had my spats with Ian Brown but i personally think he and the GFS have this nailed unfortunately. There has been a pretty big jump from the ECM overnight IMHO. Anyone denying the moce towards GFS this morning since the ecm12z yesterday is in denial IMO. QUOTE

Close run thing, but as stated Cornwall and parts of Devon dont really get invited to the party. Bristol was rain to light snow saturday on the BBC website, now that has disappeard. Anyway the important thing is to get the cold in place, and hope it sticks around when any fronts from Atlantic try to push in. Then some more proper snow might be on the cards. BBC GIVING PLYMOUTH 10 DEGREES ON SAT..

Im not hanging on every run, just describing what the run shows.....whats wrong with that? If it was showing -10 and a blizzard I would say, if its shows mild then thats what I would comment on. Thank you for the lottery talk...very good.

No idea after Monday but better pattern after the earlier output. The rain/snow for Saturday seems to be becoming rather under whelming now.

A small feature gives this

The only I dont like is the -5 line moves away from our region, so anything from the sky would be wintry but maybe not snow. You can see Cornwall and Devon wont see anything from this unless across the moors.

blows what? More snow into SW and Wales

Snow again in the SW and Wales Tuesday............corr

Much better than the GFS 06z. We hold onto the cold with snow events possible. This run matches the METO text output.