Newberryone

Believe me when I say I share both your frustration and disappointment.

It's unfortunate but one can definitely sense the air of despondency that has undoubtedly descended on the forum tonight. We talk of lowering ones expectations so as to avoid disappointment when charts fail to deliver but with the memories of Dec 09/Jan 10 and Nov /Dec 10 still etched on our minds it's nigh on impossible. It would seem we need to stop viewing the models through rose tinted glasses and be open if indeed not accepting the fact we're unlikely to witness such an historic weather event again, for that's exactly what it was, HISTORIC with the exception of '47 and '62/63 of course

Can't begin to tell you all how disappointed I was this afternoon to hear one of the news stories on the radio relating to the prospects of a cold Winter being a non starter. It would appear that the Irish meteorological service, Met Eireann are not buying into this coming season as being anything other than average or indeed ordinary. As we all learned a hard lesson from last Dec when the beast from the east failed to materialise, perhaps we need to generally lower our expectations. http://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/no-big-freeze-this-year-says-met-eireann-612901.html Needless to say I'm hoping Gerald Fleming of Met Eireann has got this one totally wrong

Nothing would please me more too for this to happen but unfortunately every time one's hopes are raised in FI charts like these appear hence injecting a harsh dose of reality into proceedings

From a cold lovers perspective I'm rather pleased with the latest Ecmwf op run in that it seems to be bringing more and more cold incursions in later frames as opposed to an almighty and everlasting Azores high which seemed quite likely in recent days. I agree the jet stream does appear to be shifting slowly north in later output from many members but all in all I feel this might just be a forerunner to an already highly anticipated mid-month change. I eagerly await Winter Wonderland scenes of this nature to be replicated the length and breath of both the British Isles and Eire over the coming months http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6zU2Q-Yc5zg

Being a wild weather fan I must admit I'm elated at how the models have changed again overnight in the long term outlook. Admittedly, it could all change back again to yesterdays depressing scenario showing some sort of Euro high but in light of the fact our settled spell lasted so very long I'm quietly confident mother nature has a way to go yet before redressing the balance

Rather presumptuous of me alright I have to admit

Could be worse I suppose as in it could be an Azores high

Certainly looks like being more than just a transient ridge come Saturday week Nov 9th if those charts verify. While I can appreciate many would welcome a relief from all the rain of late, I dread to think how boring Nov could potentially become if that Euro high manifests itself. Could be very stubborn to shift and generally shape the overall pattern for another Winter season.

Do you see this system taking a similar trajectory path and leaving us out of the firing line or is it far too early to predict with any certainty?

In actual fact Karl my weather preferences are very similar if not completely so to yours. So in no way was I attempting to undermine or disregard your well respected output. We are in a very unstable atmosphere right now and a considerable change in model output from each run is only to be expected as your reply points out. Unless my untrained eye is misinterpreting these charts there's very little sign of the Jet Stream migrating north anytime soon.

Latest from Gibby In Summary tonight the weather looks like staying unsettled and windy for the reliable future. there are some potentially stormy periods especially again towards this weekend. In contrast there is also some windows of drier weather, especially in the South and later in the run as signs of a Northward moving Jet Stream and Low pressure areas on a much more Northerly trajectory are shown. With High pressure then to the South and Low to the North this would once again mean temperatures above average as we move into November. Save us and guard us

This is more an observation than me taking issue with Gibby because that I certainly would never be qualified to do. However, much as it pains me to point this out and I know it's only based on one run but doesn't that look like an Azores high coming at us Big Time on the last frame of tonight's ECM? Just somewhat surprised that Gibby's outlook on this model seems to have overlooked this. PS Not that I want the conclusion of this latest ECM to verify because having that setup going into Nov would be like knocking on the door of Winter 2011/12 all over again

For cold lovers wishing for frigid conditions on a par with Dec 09 and Nov/Dec 10 during this upcoming season you may take comfort from the following quote which came from Mark Vogan, a name that's synonymous with all things weather related. It was in response to a recent online comment re: the present very active Jet Stream. " I've posted about the change in feedback of warm waters as season progresses. Should be mild, wet Nov, similar to 09. We both know what followed.."

For those among us who enjoy active weather thank goodness we're not being subjected to constant ridging from the Azores as was happening during the 2011/12 winter season. At least the general prospects as we head towards Winter this time appear interesting to say the least.

Encouraging words Karl

That would seem to suggest any possible rise in pressure from the south at that point might well be temporary as opposed to endless weeks of anticyclonic gloom

Needless to say it won't be as mild but weather wise this would seem to suggest we're possibly heading back to a period of as you term yourself, bog standard fare weather with little or no prospect of anything other than total stagnation if the eventual outcome of this Ecm 00z op run holds true. I get a sense that Uncle Barty is sniffing about If only one could reassure me that this is not the case

Looks like the Atlantic has been given a PG certificate again. I doubt the euphoria of yesterdays gfs 12z output for this similar time frame will quite have the same impact

Far more exciting than facing the prospect of slight frosts under a ridge originating from the Azores as predicted by the gfs 6z today in its latter frames ;-)

Agree, tentative signs of a gradual improvement/settling down in weather conditions by then but surely one has to be mindful of the fact this is only based on one run and as already highlighted this outcome as of now has less support from the ECM ens. Like Karl, I too will be pulling my hair out if Uncle Barty becomes the dominant player at this stage.

I too share in your optimism and desperately hope it's not like last winter in that it may just be the beginning of a series of false dawns

Perhaps a few subtle changes in the long term forecast since this was posted but overall I feel the general content still applies. Transient ridges being the most likely outcome as opposed to blocking highs bringing temps into the mid-high 20's bracket as some members would have us believe. I can appreciate some might say they're only outlining what the models are currently showing but it's blatantly obvious their views are not unbiased unlike Tamara Road.

Hopefully the dreaded Azores high will become less of a player in the coming months and allow the jet stream to move south again in order for this exciting weather you speak of to actually happen.

While I share your optimism Karl regarding the ever promising outlook for September in general I can't help but fear your liking of the Azores high may come back to haunt you during the upcoming winter season. As you well know it's basically taken up what seems like permanent residence these past few months. However, should this become a dominant feature Nov-Feb inclusive, it will ultimately scupper any hopes you may have of a mighty big winter freeze.